The Solar Vortex For 2002: Weather Predictions For The Year Ahead
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January 4, 2002 by MW Mandeville
Earthchanges Bulletin Update January 2002 #1 of 3 planned
ITEM(S): The Solar Vortex For 2002: Weather Predictions For The Year Ahead
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The Solar Vortex For 2002: Weather Predictions For The Year Ahead
Through the links on the Earthmonitor at MichaelMandeville.com, we have watched
carefully for parallels between the Solar Vortex and the weather on Earth.
During this past two years we have found many parallels and quite sharp
correlations between sunspot counts, planetary alignments, X Class Flares,
CME�s, and Earth�s weather. The star performers in our watch, as proclaimed
everywhere by the ancients who had less ideological hang-ups than modern
academics, were Mercury and Venus. Their alignments never failed to produce
profound effects this past two years on the Earth�s weather.
We could even see the profound power of these orbital relationships during the
close alignment of Mars and Earth this summer, which at one time brought Mars
close enough to Earth to make it the brightest star in the midheavens. The
connection was so long lasting it is difficult to correlate specific events
with the conjunction on Earth, other than to note the extreme summer weather
conditions which broke many records on the Earth. It is easier by far to see
the power of the connection in Mar�s weather. Shortly after achieving a
perfect alignment of the Earth, most likely directly connecting Earth�s
magnetosphere tail with Mar�s atmosphere, the largest dust storm ever witnessed
on Mars took over half of the planet and kept dust blowing around the planet
for at least two months before slowly settling out, all courtesy of the highly
charged electrons and ions from the solar sunspot storms which Earth�s long
magnetic tail pipelined directly to Mars. Throughout this period, a succession
of major Solar flares kept bombarding the Earth.
The surprise performer was the last alignment of the Earth with Jupiter, which
is still underway. With the Earth and Jupiter still nearly in a perfect line
up after slowly forming up this past 30 days, this alignment has produced
several completely unexpected X Class Flares, unusually large numbers of
sunspots, and the current round of extreme snowfalls and wintry conditions
throughout the Northern Hemisphere.
These correlations show the ability to do long range forecasting of the basic
dynamics which energize the Earth�s weather. They undeniably point the way to
a new way to do weather science and forecasting for the year ahead. With this
thought in mind, here follows is a weather forecast for the Year 2002.
We most begin, of course, with a forecast of the behavior of the Solar Vortex.
After careful comparison of the last 20 sunspot cycles, it is difficult to
generalize about any of the cycles, including this current one, which is named
Cycle 23. There is so much variation between them that there are no easy
rules. We can say however, on the average, that this cycle came to its maximum
relatively slow and late, it was of lower average intensity than many in the
past, and the sun�s activity has remained on this lower peak "platform" longer
than the two most previous cycles.
None of this can be considered to be strange or scientifically anomalous
because the Solar Sunspot cycle varies too much for us to be able to spot a
true anomaly. So, at the moment, we can deduce nothing about long term solar
trends, not even the likely trend of this coming year, 2002.
But from a "Global Warming" perspective there is a profound fact to take into
account. The lower than normal solar output this past several years makes it
relatively clear that global warming trends of the past 10 years cannot be
attributed to an increase in solar activity. Average solar activity is
actually down while global warming symptoms have been climbing. Since we
cannot blame the Sun, nor the weather which the Sun creates in our atmosphere,
we are left pointing solidly to the Earth for the causes of global warming.
Despite the overall lower averages, there have been a large number of high peak
daily extremes in sunspots, storms, and flares which have equaled any extremes
which have ever been recorded. Peaks in this activity have correlated very
closely this past two years with the alignment of the planets, especially by
the position of the fast moving Mercury as it lines up between the Sun and the
positions of other planets.
These alignments have produced a large number of tremendous X-class flares.
Just in the last two months, the sun has ejected fifteen X-Class flares, double
the rate of M-Class and C-Class explosions. Some of these have produced record
breaking auroras in the Earth�s skies such as are beyond all living memory and
perhaps all historical memory as well. There were even aurora�s visible in
central Arizona in the middle of the Sonoran Desert.
These flares have also produced a year of extremes in the weather, including a
long Indian Summer. South of the Jet Stream, the Indian Summer lingered into
December while all latitudes north of the Jet Stream finally dropped suddenly
into winter around Thanksgiving. Since then, the Northern latitudes have been
struck with heavy moisture and sudden temperature changes after each of the X
Flares. Associated with each flare has been a new round of exceptionally wet
air rising out of the oceans to dump record-breaking depths of snow in the
mountains and in areas like Buffalo, New York.
Climatology experts consider 2001 an extreme year in which the global warming
trends became ever so much more pronounced. The extremes in Sunspot Cycle 23
created over one hundred "record breaking" events during 2001. From record
floods to record droughts, from high temperatures to record lows, weather was
news on all continents in both hemispheres. New records were also set in
snowfalls even while elsewhere ice and glaciers melted at record rates. This
was on top of 1998-2000, which continually broke previous records for just
It would appear as of January 2002 that Sunspot Cycle 23 is slowly but only
grudgingly fading away. Even so, the potential for major X class flares and
storms remains exceptionally high. Throughout much of the remainder of 2002,
these are most likely to reappear during the planetary alignments, especially
those of the inner planets, which tend to pull the storms and flares towards
them. Sunspot counts should frequently shoot way up, from lows of 50 or so to
highs of 200 or so. X Class flares and CME�s may suddenly erupt from out of
these stormy areas on the Sun, especially as Mercury or Venus fly by Earth and
draw the Sun�s storms into the solar sea which Earth is traversing.
Thus, to catch the likely weather envelope for 2002, the first task is to plot
the motions of the planets and watch how they line up at various times. These
planetary alignments are easily spotted by using �Home Planet Software� which
can be located on the web (www.fourmilab.ch). Home Planet Software casts the
Orrery (positions of the planets from a heliotropic perspective, which is a
view of the complete solar system from overhead) and animates the motions of
the planets day by day.
At the moment of course (January 2, 2002) we can see the conjunction of the
Earth with Jupiter (still nearly in a straight line with the sun). The
alignment began December 28, 2001 and now the Earth is slowly moving ahead of
Jupiter as they revolve around the Sun. This alignment has probably been the
cause of the prolific number of X class flares which have zapped the Earth's
weather patterns this past 30 days. This alignment is also probably keeping
the sunspot numbers relatively high but now the numbers should gradually
diminish for at least the next three weeks while this Jupiter|Earth alignment
begins to weaken. Storms on both the Sun and the Earth should begin to abate
during the first three weeks of January but only slowly.
The storm activity and sunspot numbers should come back up around Jan 26,
2002. On this day Mercury will align up in conjunction with the Earth and
bring increased solar activity in its "train". This peak should be
short-lived, however, not more than about a week, and then the sunspots should
rapidly slide off into low numbers.
These alignments should keep Winter 2002 fairly intense with record breaking
snow levels and other extremes in various places through about the end of the
first week of February 2002. Then conditions should slide more rapidly into
normalcy for several weeks while the Solar Sunspot Cycle 23 begins to wane on
the graphs and the planetary alignments disperse.
On April 17, 2002 there will be another major conjunction of the planets, but
this one looks like the 5/5/2000 conjunction and it will produce the same
boring result: normal weather patterns for the Earth. This April 17
conjunction will align Mercury with Venus and Mars in a line very close to
Jupiter and Saturn on the other side of the Sun away from the Earth. This
alignment should draw off any of the solar storm activity and hurl it into the
Solar System in a direction almost directly opposite the Earth from the Sun.
The solar sea which the Earth sails through should be as smooth as glass.
But on May 25th, 2002, Mercury will have caught up with the Earth for a brief
new conjunction. This should bring a blustery late Spring storm season during
the last week of May and early June. But since this alignment is not supported
by the positions of the other planets, this late Spring weather flurry should
not be extraordinary.
Another set of conjunctions will produce a long blustery fall beginning by
about Sept 18, 2002 when Mercury conjuncts Venus even as Venus is moving into
very closely into conjunction with the Earth. The fast moving Mercury will
quickly move ahead and conjunct the Earth directly on September 27, 2002. This
should pack a lot of storm power thougthout the Northern Hemisphere during the
last week of September and the first week of October. Venus will finally
conjunct the Earth perfectly on October 23 .
These conjunctions should bring a lot of new energy into the Earth's weather
system during late October and early November to add a lot of energy to the
early Fall storms. Doubtless the slow Venus conjuction will extend the season
of exceptionally powerful Fall storm blusters which began on Septemer 18th
into early November. Below the Jet Stream line Indian Summer should continue
into November, though not as long as during 2001. Above the Jet Stream line,
wintry conditions should come in early like 2001 but not with quite the
Pacific Ocean: El Nino or La Nina?
Zip and Nada. Water surface on the average look so close to normal it would
seem that the year begins, as it did last year, in the �normal phase� between
the warm and cold extremes of El Nino and La Nina. It would appear at the
moment that an entire �El Nino� phase has been skipped, which has happened
three or four times during the past 100 years.
Despite the apparent lack of El Nino on this year�s horizon, there is an
interesting phenomenon to watch in the surface temperature of the Pacific.
There are two large islands of relatively warm water (warmer by 2 to 4 degrees)
in both the North Pacific and the South Pacific. Most curiously, they are
within the same longitude and in the same zones of latitude (opposite each
other from the Equator). Centered on Longitude West 157 and between Latitudes
30-40 in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, these two large islands of
relatively warm water do not show a pattern to suggest that they have been
produced by the atmosphere or by the Sun. Both of these areas overlie or are
very close to extremely active tectonic zones with large numbers of earthquakes
and known volcanoes. With the tilt of the orientation of the Earth to the Sun
now at 22 degrees with the Southern half now given the greatest proximity to
the Sun, the North should now be cold.
This apparent contradiction in sea surface temperature to the �weather�
provides a powerful endorsement of the notion that it is a fluctuation of heat
from underwater volcanism which is driving some of the heat in the oceans. As
demonstrated in the Vortex Tectonics graphs (which may be seen on
MichaelMandeville.com/earthmonitor) pulsations of volcanic heat in
synchronicity with the wobbling motion of the Earth seems to be creating the El
Nino pattern. For some unknown reason, this pulsation of volcanic heat is at
relatively low levels this year and is not enough to drive El Nino weather
And there you have it, the year�s weather. Let's see how well these stack up
against Old Farmer's Almanac.
Michael Wells Mandeville, The Hills of Arizona USA at mwman@...
Author of "Return of the Phoenix" at http://www.michaelmandeville.com/phoenix/phoenix.htm
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