Three Key Pieces - Hezbollah In Iraq =? Mob Provocateurs
PHOENIX FIVE EARTH CHANGES BULLETIN
May 2, 2003 by MW Mandeville
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ITEMS: Three Key Pieces - Hezbollah In Iraq =? Mob Provocateurs
Two key pieces of information seem to fall into place to reveal what is going
to be the main dynamic through to the Summer of 2004.
As you will no doubt recall if you have been reading the Earth Changes Bulletin
the past couple of weeks, I have concluded that no further Imperial advances
can be made this year and next. Simply put, between Afghanistan and Iraq the
U.S. Military has more than enough to chew on, more than it can competently
handle from the point of view of crowd control and the restructuring of Iraqi
society. Using historical "Stalin" era standards, the Soviet Union would easily
have committed a half million Russians to occupy a country like Iraq. Saddam,
who is a direct carbon copy of Stalin, kept over a million men occupied in
controlling Iraq. American troops are not coming home until Iraqi militia are
in place and it is going to take at least a couple of years to get enough Iraqi
command, control, and resource together in a system that the U.S. trusts enough
to disengage from.
Rumors in the media suggest that about $ 2 billion per month will be spent in
Iraq for the next two years.
In Afghanistan the Pentagon has recently concluded that its effort was totally
inadequate. U.S. troops are being beefed up there and U.S. dollars are finally
being allocated for Afghanistan in much larger numbers.
At the same time meanwhile, the U.S. State Department is totally engaging to
create a Palestine Peace proposal. At the moment Powell is putting the U.S.
totally on the line at the moment to push the process to a real solution.
I have no doubt whatsoever that this is as much as the U.S. government can deal
with. Comments in one of the articles below from Billy Kristol (one of the key
public representatives of the Imperial Faction) suggests that they are thinking
that they now have to prove some of their claims about what the invasion in
Iraq would accomplish. They are content at the moment to watch and see if the
bully boy assault will intimidate enough Arab leaders to cause enough change in
behavior to settle the region down into following the U.S. "line".
Since both Syria and Iran ARE WITHOUT DOUBT FORMIDABLE STATES, well armed and
commanding considerable real support from their populations, any military moves
against either of these would be extremely COSTLY, in all ways.
So I doubt much will change here with either of these states and both of them
will be working very hard to strengthen connections and support and sympathy
with Eurasian states. Iran is building relationships with China as fast and as
hard as it can, and Syria is working its French connections. Both are working
hard to bring Russia on their sides.
So the next initiating moves probably will come from the international
terrorist movements. I think they have begun through the shift of Hezbollah.
The first article below claims that at least 700 Hezbollah infiltrated into
Iraq from Syria during the last month. Hezbollah, I am sure you know, is the
main group outside of Palestine which is funneling bombs and people and money
into Palestine and Israel to conduct the war of terror against Israel. They
have waged a bitter, desperate, losing campaign of suicide the last three years
without success, except possibly for creating increasing hostility towards the
Israeli state. Israel's responses have been uncompromisingly tough and there
are abundant examples now to substantiate that some of the response has been
recklessly brutal "revenge", not professional military control measures. The
increasing image of Israel as a violently brutal army may or may not be
justified, but it is definitely an image which has grown on the world stage and
it is reshaping how people respond to Israel.
Israel is small and it is hard to get away with things three. As well, the new
Palestine Prime Minister and Cabinet is completely polarized against
Hezbollah. Perhaps Hezbollah is shifting its attention to wage the same war of
"liberation" against the U.S. directly in Iraq. That would certainly suit the
interests of both Syria and Iran and a lot of fundamentalists in Iraq. Behind
Hezbollah is oil money, from both Saudi Arabia and Iran. Most likley, Alqaeda
is now in the middle of that somehow.
This hypothesis would explain quite well what is happening in Northern Iraq
right now. It is apparent that some one or some group is "agent provocateuring"
the Iraqi mob. The angry confrontation with U.S. soldiers, who are primarily
19 and 20 year olds scared shitless by the sea of mob confusion around them,
are easily manipulated by hidden provocateurs to fire indiscriminately,
inevitably killing people in the mob, who most likely believe that they are
God's obedient servants seeking justice for their fellows. A few thrown rocks,
a few hidden rifle shots, blam blam blam, a mas scare.
If this is indeed happening, it doubtless will flare up again and again in
countless ways. Troops simply will not be able to leave. This will create a
tense occupation for some time. Economic revival quick, is the best cure, but
that is not something which Republicans are gifted in. There is no one there
at the moment seemingly upfront in public with the ideas, programs, and the
heart to instill a sense that people are going to be taken care of and that
things will become truly better. We can only hope that revival emerges quickly
through the workings of gifted but unknown people.
Take a look for this pattern through this news report.
A second key piece of information, actually a major briefing on what is
happening inside Saudi Arabia, can be found in the May 2003 Atlantic Monthly
This iway version is fractured and not as tidily put together as in the May
print edition. If you want to know what is happening in Saudi Arabia in a
summary brief, get this off the newsstand.
It is extremely revealing and seems to fit with everything which has been
happening and with everything "seedy and underhanded" which has been attributed
to Saudi society. The article shows pretty well why Osama Bin Laden's most
important target is and always has been leading an Islamic revolution to take
over Saudi Arabia, just like he said in the beginning of his Jihad. The author
plausibly suggests that Osama Bin Laden might handily win a free and fair
election inside Saudi Arabia against the corrupt absurdities of the Saudi Royal
How he will strike again, it is impossible to conjecture, but he may find it
highly convenient to assist Hezbollah for awhile in Iraq.
A third key piece of information comes from this next UPI article. If this
were AP, I would be hesitant to buy into this article of unsubstantiated
reports, since AP is known to be a willing dupe tor channeling U.S.
disinformation. But UPI has a reputation for being cleaner and far more
diffident about governmental sources. I consider it to be slightly more
reliable. From this article, and the behavior of Bush the last few days, I
gain pretty powerful clues that my thesis above is right on, that the Imperial
Faction is pausing to watch and consolidate its gains for the next 18 months
while Bush switches to focus mainly on getting re-elected.
That means Rummy will be the effective Proconsul over Iraq, Powell will be
almost exclusively on Palestine, and Bush will be working to insure that the
economy begins to expand. He will be focusing on talking with major
corporation heads, etc.
This is a rather unnerving scenario, we have observed several times that Rummy
is a rather reactive fellow. Decisive, he would say. He is probably capable
of digging us ever deeper into the jungle of v, er, the sands of the Middle
RICE ACTIONS ON SYRIA DISPUTED
By Richard Sale
UPI Terrorism Correspondent
Published 5/2/2003 7:54 PM
WASHINGTON, May 2 (UPI) -- Anna Perez, White House communications
counselor, Friday sharply contested a United Press International report
that national security adviser Condoleezza Rice and political adviser
Karl Rove shut down a Pentagon plan to expand the Iraqi ground war to
Syria in closing days of combat.
"That never happened," she said. "It is a complete fabrication."
Perez also said there was no meeting on this subject at the White House
with Israeli National Security Adviser Efrian Halevy and other
officials. UPI's report, published Friday afternoon, quoted
unidentified administration officials as saying that a combination of
Pentagon HAWKS and senior ISRAELI officials had been pressing the United
States to EXPAND the ground WAR to SYRIA. The officials spoke to UPI on
condition of anonymity.
The U.S. strikes on Syria would have taken the FORM OF brief
across-the-border forays under "HOT PURSUIT" rules of engagement, these
sources said. They said contingency PLANS for such RAIDS were being
DRAWN UP by Doug Feith, undersecretary of defense for policy, after the
approval of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.
They added that the Pentagon press for action against Damascus was
bolstered by the visit of Halevy, who traveled to Washington April 12-14
on the invitation of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
According to a Haaretz report of April 13, Halevy and another senior
aide to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Dov Weisglass, were
visiting Washington to "suggest that the United States TAKE CARE OF IRAN
AND SYRIA because of their support for terror and pursuit of weapons of
During their visit, the administration sources said, they had a meeting
in the president's conference room, under a picture of Theodore
Roosevelt, with top NSC officials and others with Rumsfeld and Rove in
In response to Halevy's entreaties for action, these sources said, Rice
repeated an assertion that the White House did not want any further
military campaigns for the rest of Bush's first term, according to the
sources. They said RUMSFELD OBJECTED, and, at one point, turned to Rove
and asked his opinion. Rove said the president agreed with Rice, and the
meeting came to an end, the sources said.
Perez asserted Friday that this meeting didn't take place. She also said
that to her knowledge, UPI had not attempted to contact participants.
Beginning Monday, UPI began calling White House officials to get the
administration's position on the story. It placed a call to Sean
McCormack, director of communications for the National Security Council,
on several occasions and left voice messages. The calls were not
UPI also read details of the allegations to a staff member on the NSC.
Another source with close knowledge of the matter told UPI: "The HAWKS
DIDN'T UNDERSTAND the emphasis had all changed: Everything was focused,
not on the war any more, but on the president's re-election."
This official added that Rove had handled the elections of 2002 on the
basis that "the American public knew the economy was a disaster, but the
president asked them to put the war on terror first, and to vote
Republican. And the public voted Republican. We think he felt any
movement into Syria was pushing his luck."
The HAWKS PROPOSED PUNITIVE RAIDS because Syria and the United States
already were bristling at each other, and the war simply took an
unfortunate series of circumstances and brought them to a point of
crisis, administration sources said.
In spite of Syria's heightened cooperation in the war on terror, with
Syria giving the United States much useful information about al-Qaida,
it was still supporting Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein in the war.
In an April 13 Washington Post report, Powell issued a harsh warning to
Syria against giving safe haven to Iraqi officials fleeing Baghdad.
At a Pentagon press conference, Rumsfeld charged: "We are getting scraps
of intelligence saying that Syria has been cooperating in facilitating
the move (of senior members of Saddam Hussein's regime) from Iraq to
He warned that arms and supplies were moving into Iraq from Syria as
well. Syria replied strongly that such charges were "baseless." In an
interview with The Washington Times, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul
Wolfowitz was quoted as saying: "Syria is shipping killers into Iraq to
There was some truth to this, say serving and former U.S. intelligence
Former senior CIA officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told
UPI that U.S. combat forces in Iraq detained at least 700 Lebanon-based
Hezbollah fighters who came in buses over the Syrian border to fight
against the U.S. coalition.
In one incident, a bus filled with Lebanese Hezbollah militants stopped
in Iraq included two dozen Chechen terrorists, a former senior agency
He added that another 100 members of Hezbollah are being detained at a
camp at Tanaa in Iraq. After stern U.S. warnings, Syria tightened up
scrutiny at checkpoints, but more Hezbollah and jihadis "simply went
over the border" with weapons and explosives, he said.
"We were seeing some very disturbing signs of plans for anti-U.S.
activity" on the part of the Hezbollah, another administration official
said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
(Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's deputy secretary general, told UPI's Claude
Salhani in an interview in Beirut last week, "We are not a threat to
anyone." Qassem said that although now he felt Hezbollah was stronger
politically and militarily than ever, it was not to attack anyone, "but
only to defend ourselves.")
The hawks also saw Syria as the only remaining military threat to
Israel, the sources said. Former CIA Middle East expert Bob Baer told
UPI that Syria possesses "a chemical arsenal that is much more lethal
than anything Saddam has," and explained that "in Israeli strategic
thought, the most dangerous threat is the geographically closest" --
which would mean Syria.
UPI previously reported that U.S. intelligence agencies believe that
rogue elements of Syria's ruling elite have accepted millions of dollars
in bribes in return for providing a safe haven for some of Iraq's
weapons of mass destruction, according to U.S. administration officials,
both former and serving.
Chemical and biological weapons were taken by truck to a Syrian
munitions compound near a military base near Khan Abu Shamet, about 50
miles northeast of Damascus, these officials told UPI.
The chief suspects in the operation are Bushra Assad, the sister of
Syrian President Bashar Assad, and her husband, Gen. Assaf Chawkat, No.
2 in Syria's military intelligence organization, the Mukhabarat.
Copyright © 2001-2003 United Press International
Michael Wells Mandeville, The Hills of Arizona USA at mwman@...
Author of "Return of the Phoenix" at
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