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Re: [dxatlas] New SSN data file for HamCap (Was: Ham CAP 1.5)

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  • Pete Smith
    Here s a question I ve been meaning to ask for some time. The SSN.DAT file in my Ham CAP folder is the same as Alex s until January 2005, when I installed both
    Message 1 of 5 , Jan 1, 2008
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      Here's a question I've been meaning to ask for some time.

      The SSN.DAT file in my Ham CAP folder is the same as Alex's until January
      2005, when I installed both it and Ionoprobe, and enabled the integration
      to provide data from Ionoprobe to Ham CAP. At that point the values
      diverge slightly until June of 2007, at which point they begin to diverge
      more widely. Here's a sample:

      Mine Alex's

      Dec 2006=11.7 Dec 2006=12.9
      Jan 2007=11.3 Jan 2007=12.4
      Feb 2007=11.1 Feb 2007=12.3
      Mar 2007=11.1 Mar 2007=12.4
      Apr 2007=11.2 Apr 2007=12.5
      May 2007=11.4 May 2007=12.8
      Jun 2007=7.4 Jun 2007=13.2
      Jul 2007=6.4 Jul 2007=13.9
      Aug 2007=5.5 Aug 2007=14.8
      Sep 2007=5.1 Sep 2007=15.7
      Oct 2007=4.9 Oct 2007=16.9
      Nov 2007=4.5 Nov 2007=18.1
      Dec 2007=3.8 Dec 2007=19.6
      Jan 2008=3.2 Jan 2008=18.5
      Feb 2008=2.9
      Mar 2008=3.1
      Apr 2008=3.7

      What is the cause of the sudden divergence in Jun 2007? Will the values
      re-converge as smoothed sunspot numbers are computed, so that, for example,
      next month the Jun 2007 number will be revised? Are they computed by
      Ionoprobe or provided by one of the data broadcasts it receives? I also
      notice that the values supplied by Ionoprobe ("mine") are always slightly
      lower than the ones in the precalculated tables - is that predicted vs
      actual, or is there some other reason?

      I can hardly wait until Oct 2011!

      73, Pete N4ZR

      At 01:44 PM 1/1/2008, Alex, VE3NEA wrote:
      >Hi Mike,
      >
      >You need a new SSN.dat file for the years beyond 2007. I have just uploaded
      >such file to http://www.dxatlas.com/Download.asp . Pease download it and
      >unzip to the HamCap folder.
      >
      >73 Alex VE3NEA
    • Pete Smith
      Sorry, I reversed the captions on the columns, and my Ham CAP SSN s are higher, not lower than his. Here s how they should look: Alex s Mine Dec
      Message 2 of 5 , Jan 1, 2008
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        Sorry, I reversed the captions on the columns, and "my" Ham CAP SSN's are
        higher, not lower than his.

        Here's how they should look:

        Alex's Mine

        Dec 2006=11.7 Dec 2006=12.9
        Jan 2007=11.3 Jan 2007=12.4
        Feb 2007=11.1 Feb 2007=12.3
        Mar 2007=11.1 Mar 2007=12.4
        Apr 2007=11.2 Apr 2007=12.5
        May 2007=11.4 May 2007=12.8
        Jun 2007=7.4 Jun 2007=13.2
        Jul 2007=6.4 Jul 2007=13.9
        Aug 2007=5.5 Aug 2007=14.8
        Sep 2007=5.1 Sep 2007=15.7
        Oct 2007=4.9 Oct 2007=16.9
        Nov 2007=4.5 Nov 2007=18.1
        Dec 2007=3.8 Dec 2007=19.6
        Jan 2008=3.2 Jan 2008=18.5
        Feb 2008=2.9
        Mar 2008=3.1
        Apr 2008=3.7

        73, Pete N4ZR

        At 02:56 PM 1/1/2008, Pete Smith wrote:
        >Here's a question I've been meaning to ask for some time.
        >
        >The SSN.DAT file in my Ham CAP folder is the same as Alex's until January
        >2005, when I installed both it and Ionoprobe, and enabled the integration
        >to provide data from Ionoprobe to Ham CAP. At that point the values
        >diverge slightly until June of 2007, at which point they begin to diverge
        >more widely. Here's a sample:
        >
        >Mine Alex's
        >
        >Dec 2006=11.7 Dec 2006=12.9
        >Jan 2007=11.3 Jan 2007=12.4
        >Feb 2007=11.1 Feb 2007=12.3
        >Mar 2007=11.1 Mar 2007=12.4
        >Apr 2007=11.2 Apr 2007=12.5
        >May 2007=11.4 May 2007=12.8
        >Jun 2007=7.4 Jun 2007=13.2
        >Jul 2007=6.4 Jul 2007=13.9
        >Aug 2007=5.5 Aug 2007=14.8
        >Sep 2007=5.1 Sep 2007=15.7
        >Oct 2007=4.9 Oct 2007=16.9
        >Nov 2007=4.5 Nov 2007=18.1
        >Dec 2007=3.8 Dec 2007=19.6
        >Jan 2008=3.2 Jan 2008=18.5
        >Feb 2008=2.9
        >Mar 2008=3.1
        >Apr 2008=3.7
        >
        >What is the cause of the sudden divergence in Jun 2007? Will the values
        >re-converge as smoothed sunspot numbers are computed, so that, for example,
        >next month the Jun 2007 number will be revised? Are they computed by
        >Ionoprobe or provided by one of the data broadcasts it receives? I also
        >notice that the values supplied by Ionoprobe ("mine") are always slightly
        >lower than the ones in the precalculated tables - is that predicted vs
        >actual, or is there some other reason?
        >
        >I can hardly wait until Oct 2011!
        >
        >73, Pete N4ZR
        >
        >At 01:44 PM 1/1/2008, Alex, VE3NEA wrote:
        > >Hi Mike,
        > >
        > >You need a new SSN.dat file for the years beyond 2007. I have just uploaded
        > >such file to http://www.dxatlas.com/Download.asp . Pease download it and
        > >unzip to the HamCap folder.
        > >
        > >73 Alex VE3NEA
        >
        >
        >
        >
        >Yahoo! Groups Links
        >
        >
        >
      • Alex, VE3NEA
        Hi Pete, The sunspot numbers in the SSN.dat file included with HamCap were taken from the NOAA prediction that was available at the time of program release:
        Message 3 of 5 , Jan 1, 2008
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          Hi Pete,

          The sunspot numbers in the SSN.dat file included with HamCap were taken from
          the NOAA prediction that was available at the time of program release:
          (ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/sunspot.predict)

          The new file that I uploaded today contains data from their new prediction:
          (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt)

          Obviously, SSN prediction is not an exact science. As can be seen from the
          prediction chart
          (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/sunspot.gif), NOAA now has two
          hypotheses that predict very different values of SSN.

          As more data becomes available, NOAA updates their predictions and
          eventually replaces them with the observed values.

          73 Alex VE3NEA




          ----- Original Message -----
          > Sorry, I reversed the captions on the columns, and "my" Ham CAP SSN's are
          > higher, not lower than his.
          >
          > Here's how they should look:
          >
          > Alex's Mine
          >
          > Dec 2006=11.7 Dec 2006=12.9
          > Jan 2007=11.3 Jan 2007=12.4
          > Feb 2007=11.1 Feb 2007=12.3
          > Mar 2007=11.1 Mar 2007=12.4
          > Apr 2007=11.2 Apr 2007=12.5
          > May 2007=11.4 May 2007=12.8
          > Jun 2007=7.4 Jun 2007=13.2
          > Jul 2007=6.4 Jul 2007=13.9
          > Aug 2007=5.5 Aug 2007=14.8
          > Sep 2007=5.1 Sep 2007=15.7
          > Oct 2007=4.9 Oct 2007=16.9
          > Nov 2007=4.5 Nov 2007=18.1
          > Dec 2007=3.8 Dec 2007=19.6
          > Jan 2008=3.2 Jan 2008=18.5
          > Feb 2008=2.9
          > Mar 2008=3.1
          > Apr 2008=3.7
          >
          > 73, Pete N4ZR
          >
          > At 02:56 PM 1/1/2008, Pete Smith wrote:
          >>Here's a question I've been meaning to ask for some time.
          >>
          >>The SSN.DAT file in my Ham CAP folder is the same as Alex's until January
          >>2005, when I installed both it and Ionoprobe, and enabled the integration
          >>to provide data from Ionoprobe to Ham CAP. At that point the values
          >>diverge slightly until June of 2007, at which point they begin to diverge
          >>more widely. Here's a sample:
          >>
          >>Mine Alex's
          >>
          >>Dec 2006=11.7 Dec 2006=12.9
          >>Jan 2007=11.3 Jan 2007=12.4
          >>Feb 2007=11.1 Feb 2007=12.3
          >>Mar 2007=11.1 Mar 2007=12.4
          >>Apr 2007=11.2 Apr 2007=12.5
          >>May 2007=11.4 May 2007=12.8
          >>Jun 2007=7.4 Jun 2007=13.2
          >>Jul 2007=6.4 Jul 2007=13.9
          >>Aug 2007=5.5 Aug 2007=14.8
          >>Sep 2007=5.1 Sep 2007=15.7
          >>Oct 2007=4.9 Oct 2007=16.9
          >>Nov 2007=4.5 Nov 2007=18.1
          >>Dec 2007=3.8 Dec 2007=19.6
          >>Jan 2008=3.2 Jan 2008=18.5
          >>Feb 2008=2.9
          >>Mar 2008=3.1
          >>Apr 2008=3.7
          >>
          >>What is the cause of the sudden divergence in Jun 2007? Will the values
          >>re-converge as smoothed sunspot numbers are computed, so that, for
          >>example,
          >>next month the Jun 2007 number will be revised? Are they computed by
          >>Ionoprobe or provided by one of the data broadcasts it receives? I also
          >>notice that the values supplied by Ionoprobe ("mine") are always slightly
          >>lower than the ones in the precalculated tables - is that predicted vs
          >>actual, or is there some other reason?
          >>
          >>I can hardly wait until Oct 2011!
          >>
          >>73, Pete N4ZR
          >>
          >>At 01:44 PM 1/1/2008, Alex, VE3NEA wrote:
          >> >Hi Mike,
          >> >
          >> >You need a new SSN.dat file for the years beyond 2007. I have just
          >> >uploaded
          >> >such file to http://www.dxatlas.com/Download.asp . Pease download it and
          >> >unzip to the HamCap folder.
          >> >
          >> >73 Alex VE3NEA
          >>
          >>
          >>
          >>
          >>Yahoo! Groups Links
          >>
          >>
          >>
          >
          >
        • Pete Smith
          OK, I understand, but what about the sharp step-down in the predicted data beginning in Jun 2007, which doesn t track with the trend shown in data derived from
          Message 4 of 5 , Jan 1, 2008
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            OK, I understand, but what about the sharp step-down in the predicted data
            beginning in Jun 2007, which doesn't track with the trend shown in data
            derived from Ionoprobe? The ISES graph looks much closer to the data in
            your new table, but the last year's data in Ionoprobe look much higher. For
            example, in August 2007, on most days Ionoprobe showed the SSN in the range
            of 11-16, while your table says the average was 5.5.

            73, Pete N4ZR

            At 03:16 PM 1/1/2008, Alex, VE3NEA wrote:
            >Hi Pete,
            >
            >The sunspot numbers in the SSN.dat file included with HamCap were taken from
            >the NOAA prediction that was available at the time of program release:
            >(ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/sunspot.predict)
            >
            >The new file that I uploaded today contains data from their new prediction:
            >(http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt)
            >
            >Obviously, SSN prediction is not an exact science. As can be seen from the
            >prediction chart
            >(http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/sunspot.gif), NOAA now has two
            >hypotheses that predict very different values of SSN.
            >
            >As more data becomes available, NOAA updates their predictions and
            >eventually replaces them with the observed values.
            >
            >73 Alex VE3NEA
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >----- Original Message -----
            > > Sorry, I reversed the captions on the columns, and "my" Ham CAP SSN's are
            > > higher, not lower than his.
            > >
            > > Here's how they should look:
            > >
            > > Alex's Mine
            > >
            > > Dec 2006=11.7 Dec 2006=12.9
            > > Jan 2007=11.3 Jan 2007=12.4
            > > Feb 2007=11.1 Feb 2007=12.3
            > > Mar 2007=11.1 Mar 2007=12.4
            > > Apr 2007=11.2 Apr 2007=12.5
            > > May 2007=11.4 May 2007=12.8
            > > Jun 2007=7.4 Jun 2007=13.2
            > > Jul 2007=6.4 Jul 2007=13.9
            > > Aug 2007=5.5 Aug 2007=14.8
            > > Sep 2007=5.1 Sep 2007=15.7
            > > Oct 2007=4.9 Oct 2007=16.9
            > > Nov 2007=4.5 Nov 2007=18.1
            > > Dec 2007=3.8 Dec 2007=19.6
            > > Jan 2008=3.2 Jan 2008=18.5
            > > Feb 2008=2.9
            > > Mar 2008=3.1
            > > Apr 2008=3.7
            > >
            > > 73, Pete N4ZR
            > >
            > > At 02:56 PM 1/1/2008, Pete Smith wrote:
            > >>Here's a question I've been meaning to ask for some time.
            > >>
            > >>The SSN.DAT file in my Ham CAP folder is the same as Alex's until January
            > >>2005, when I installed both it and Ionoprobe, and enabled the integration
            > >>to provide data from Ionoprobe to Ham CAP. At that point the values
            > >>diverge slightly until June of 2007, at which point they begin to diverge
            > >>more widely. Here's a sample:
            > >>
            > >>Mine Alex's
            > >>
            > >>Dec 2006=11.7 Dec 2006=12.9
            > >>Jan 2007=11.3 Jan 2007=12.4
            > >>Feb 2007=11.1 Feb 2007=12.3
            > >>Mar 2007=11.1 Mar 2007=12.4
            > >>Apr 2007=11.2 Apr 2007=12.5
            > >>May 2007=11.4 May 2007=12.8
            > >>Jun 2007=7.4 Jun 2007=13.2
            > >>Jul 2007=6.4 Jul 2007=13.9
            > >>Aug 2007=5.5 Aug 2007=14.8
            > >>Sep 2007=5.1 Sep 2007=15.7
            > >>Oct 2007=4.9 Oct 2007=16.9
            > >>Nov 2007=4.5 Nov 2007=18.1
            > >>Dec 2007=3.8 Dec 2007=19.6
            > >>Jan 2008=3.2 Jan 2008=18.5
            > >>Feb 2008=2.9
            > >>Mar 2008=3.1
            > >>Apr 2008=3.7
            > >>
            > >>What is the cause of the sudden divergence in Jun 2007? Will the values
            > >>re-converge as smoothed sunspot numbers are computed, so that, for
            > >>example,
            > >>next month the Jun 2007 number will be revised? Are they computed by
            > >>Ionoprobe or provided by one of the data broadcasts it receives? I also
            > >>notice that the values supplied by Ionoprobe ("mine") are always slightly
            > >>lower than the ones in the precalculated tables - is that predicted vs
            > >>actual, or is there some other reason?
            > >>
            > >>I can hardly wait until Oct 2011!
            > >>
            > >>73, Pete N4ZR
            > >>
            > >>At 01:44 PM 1/1/2008, Alex, VE3NEA wrote:
            > >> >Hi Mike,
            > >> >
            > >> >You need a new SSN.dat file for the years beyond 2007. I have just
            > >> >uploaded
            > >> >such file to http://www.dxatlas.com/Download.asp . Pease download it and
            > >> >unzip to the HamCap folder.
            > >> >
            > >> >73 Alex VE3NEA
            > >>
            > >>
            > >>
            > >>
            > >>Yahoo! Groups Links
            > >>
            > >>
            > >>
            > >
            > >
            >
            >
            >
            >
            >Yahoo! Groups Links
            >
            >
            >
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