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possible auroras

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  • Don R Surles
    i will be at Tuckahoe tonight - see the alert below - hope to see you there - bundle up! Don... A s t r o A l e r t Sun-Earth Alert Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
    Message 1 of 3 , Nov 5, 2001
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      i will be at Tuckahoe tonight - see the alert below - hope to see you there
      - bundle up!

      Don...





      A s t r o A l e r t
      Sun-Earth Alert

      Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
      http://www.spacew.com

      05 November 2001

      Details, images, and movies:
      http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html

      A significant and powerful solar flare (X-class event, the most
      powerful
      class of x-ray flares rated) exploded from active sunspot complex number
      9684
      at 16:19 UTC (11:19 pm EST) on 04 November. Less than 20 minutes later, a
      barrage of highly energetic particles (protons with energies greater than
      100
      million electron volts) travelling at near the speed of light began
      flooding
      the near-Earth space environment. At the same time, a large coronal mass
      ejection (CME) was observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
      (SOHO)
      spacecraft's Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO)
      cameras. The trajectory of the ejected mass was quickly determined to be
      Earth-directed based on the halo of light that was observed propagating
      outward from the Sun with each of the LASCO images that were received.

      The velocity of the coronal mass ejection was estimated to be
      relatively
      high (at least 1,000 km/sec). The ejected mass formed a shock wave in the
      inner-corona of the Sun. The shock wave excited electrons as it propagated
      outward, resulting in a loud radio emission known as a Type II sweep
      frequency event. As the shock wave propagated outward to regions of lower
      electron density, the observed radio emissions also decreased in frequency.
      Through the use of models that describe how electron densities decrease
      with
      altitude through the solar corona, it is possible to estimate the velocity
      with which the responsible shock wave propagated outward through the
      corona.
      The results thus far suggest the shock wave may have been travelling at a
      velocity in excess of 1,300 kilometers per second (4.68 million kilometers
      per hour or almost 3 million miles per hour). A spacecraft moving that fast
      (still a dream by todays standards) would be able to traverse the distance
      from the Earth to the Moon in less than 5 minutes!

      The CME is predicted to impact the Earth near 06:00 UTC on 06 November
      (11 pm EST on **05** November for North American observers), +/- up to 8
      hours. The arrival of this disturbance is expected to produce a potentially
      strong auroral storm. Observers interested in watching for the "Northern
      Lights" are therefore encouraged to watch the skies of 05 and 06 November
      for
      activity. A fairly strong light show is possible on those dates.

      Additional information, including images and movies of the solar
      flare,
      are available at: http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html

      Additional major solar flares are possible over the next 3 to 5 days.

      A middle latitude auroral activity warning has been issued and is
      appended below:

      /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

      MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

      ISSUED: 06:20 UTC, 05 NOVEMBER 2001

      /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

      *** POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***


      VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 06 NOVEMBER (7 pm EST on 05 November)
      VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 07 NOVEMBER

      HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
      MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 05 - 07 NOVEMBER

      PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 50, 20, 12 (05 - 08 NOVEMBER)

      POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE - HIGH

      POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
      MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

      ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

      EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

      OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

      AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

      SOUTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO NORTHERN KANSAS
      TO MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

      ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

      SOUTHERN FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO SLOVENIA TO HUNGARY TO NORTHERN
      ROMANIA TO NORTHERN MOLDOVA TO UKRAINE TO CENTRAL RUSSIA. MOST OF NEW
      ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS
      OF ACTIVITY. THERE IS ALSO A *SLIGHT* CHANCE EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF
      CHILE AND ARGENTINA MAY SPOT BRIEF PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.


      SYNOPSIS...

      Auroral activity is expected to intensify to storm levels following
      the
      anticipated arrival of a potentially strong coronal mass ejection early in
      the UTC day of 06 November (evening hours of 05 November over North
      America).
      The disturbance is expected to last approximately 18 to 24 hours. The moon
      is
      roughly 70% illuminated during this period of time and will therefore prove
      to be somewhat of a hinderance to observing activity once it rises higher
      in
      the sky. Nevertheless, activity could become intense enough at times to
      override the influence of the moon.

      This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 07 November. It
      will then be updated or allowed to expire.

      PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
      http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html


      Other Tools:

      o Monitor real-time conditions and report sightings using software at:
      http://www.spacew.com/aurora

      o On-line global discussion forum:
      http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

      o Chat in real-time with others using IRC at:
      http://www.spacew.com/irc
      and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora in the IRC software).

      o Real-time notification of events via Digital SMS:
      http://www.spacew.com/sms


      ** End of AstroAlert **
    • Steven Long
      Don: I ll try to be out there tonight. Wouldn tcha know it, moonrise is in the middle of the evening, which could wipe out all but the brightest auroras.
      Message 2 of 3 , Nov 5, 2001
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        Don:

        I'll try to be out there tonight. Wouldn'tcha know it, moonrise
        is in the middle of the evening, which could wipe out all but the
        brightest auroras.

        Steve
      • Don R Surles
        please check out the 2 websites below - it appears we have an excellent chance for auroras tonight. i plan to be at tuckahoe to witness the events.
        Message 3 of 3 , May 23, 2002
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          please check out the 2 websites below - it appears we have an excellent
          chance for auroras tonight. i plan to be at tuckahoe to witness the
          events.

          http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/proton/20020523_proton.gif
          http://www.spaceweather.com

          hope to see you there.

          don...
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