E-BurdenRe: Plant Communication
- Tin: Do Tong's post seem a little more empty than usual this week to
anyone else ?
--- In email@example.com, Michael Tong
- Tin: A famous case study in Psychology is the case of HM. HM had
his Hippocampus removed to limit epileptic seizures. As a result he
was unable to consolidate memories (i.e., make new memories
permenant). Tong is similar every week I confront him with the same
reality. Every week he shows no sign of ever hearing it before.
Perhaps he's hoping to acquire a debating advantage by fatiguing his
oponnent on repetition. How Appletonian.
Random probabilities can produce extremely low probabilities.
Random digit strings, games of chance, coin flipping and lottery
numbers all reveal this reality. Thus, it is fallacious to use a low
probability alone to either a) argue the event didn't happen; or b)
argue that it wasn't produced by a random process.
Tong has failed to respond substantively to the examples
demonstrating that random processes can produce very low
--- In firstname.lastname@example.org, mtong5@j... wrote:
> > Michael: Individual probability is when a number is specified
> before the
> > random number generator is turned on.
> Tin: No, probabilities can be calculated before or after the
> happen. In fact the very probabilities you and other IDers misuse
> are calculated AFTER they happen.
> Obviously you are too stubborn to admit that you claims are
> even though it is obvious that you can't defend them. You have
> failed to provide any substantive response for months.
> Michael: You are the one who came up with the distinction between
> individual probability and collective probability.
Tin: Yes, and every week you get this distinction wrong. Of course
the misunderstanding is highly strategic if you understood the
concepts you would realize that your claims about what random
processes can do are quite wrong.
Now you seem to be
> abandoning the distinction.
Tin: No. I abandoned your version of it. I abandoned it because it
Individual probability is when you specify
> the number you want before the random number generator is turned
Tin: LOL, wrong again this week. Individual probabilities refer to
the probability of specific events. Individual probabilities don't
change depending on when the calculations are made.
Tong did you know that in inferential statistics probabilities are
typically calculated after the data are collected ?
It seems that you don't what you are talking about.
> the random number generator can produce 10^3000 digits, the number
> pick will not come up.
Tin: It is not necessary to pick one number or one event in advance
in order to caclulate probabilities. Inferential statistics relies
on caclulating probabilities after the events have taken place.
Please educate yourself.
Here is an example. The probability of a fair coin, fairly tossed
coming up "heads" is 0.50. The probability is 0.50 before the
event. The probability that it would have happened is 0.50 after the
event. The probability is not affected by the timing of the
You have some really interesting misconceptions. Interesting......
In contrast, collective probability is when you
> do not specify a number. Obviously, the probability is one that any
> number will come up when the random number generator is turned on.
> Evolution is individual probability. The evolution of the eye
> specific mutations. Mutations in another part of the organism or in
> another organism won't work. That is why evolution say that
> mutations are rare. I provided a reference from the Encarta
> 2001. In contrast, you have been unable to provide a reference to
> support your claim that the probability of a beneficial mutation
> occurring is one.
Tin: The comments above rest on the errors mentioned previously.
Obviously you are hopelessly confused. It seems that you are
incapable of learning any facts or concepts that are inconvenient for
your rhetoric. Please change this sad state of affairs. Thanks.