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[Computational Complexity] There is no such thing as a sure thing

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  • GASARCH
    Flashback to 1973: The Miami Dolphins were 16-0 before the superbowl. Yet they were underdogs! As a naive kid I did not understand this. My dad explained to me
    Message 1 of 1 , Feb 14, 2008
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      Flashback to 1973: The Miami Dolphins were 16-0 before the superbowl. Yet they were underdogs! As a naive kid I did not understand this. My dad explained to me that the Washington Redskins (the other team) had a harder schedule. Even so, if you win every game you must be doing something right. I thought it was a sure thing!!- They WON so I was right! Unfortunately I did not bet my dad on the game.

      Flashforward to 2008: The New England Patriots were 18-0 before the superbowl. They were favorites! As a naive adult I just assumed they would win. My father-in-law explained to me that the New England Patriots won some games they should have lost. Even so, if you win every game you must be doing something right. I thought it was a sure thing!!- They LOST so I was wrong! Fortunately I did not bet my father-in-law on the game.

      Flashback a little bit to just before Superbowl 2008. Past history indicates that superbowls almost never have an exciting finish. As naive adults, my father, my father-in-law, and I just assumed there would not be an exciting finish. We thought it was a sure thing!!- The game HAD an exciting finish- so we were wrong! Fortunately, we did not bet on this.

      Flashback a little bit to just before Superbowl 2008. Past history indicates that superbowls almost never have an exciting finish. As naive adults, my father, my father-in-law, and I just assumed there would not be an exciting finish. We thought it was a sure thing!!- The game HAD an exciting finish- so we were wrong! Fortunately, we did not bet on this.

      Actually you can't bet on there will not be an exciting finish since its not that well defined. By contrast, you can bet on (I am not making this up) the first touchdown will be scored by a player from one of the top 100 schools via US News and World Reports rankings.

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      Posted By GASARCH to Computational Complexity at 2/14/2008 10:42:00 AM
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