Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

No good news for ISON

Expand Messages
  • Jakub Černý
    Hi all No good news from STEREO-A. Matthew Knight has sent me his photometry of spacecraft images to 15UT 25. Nov. They well corresponds to latest visual
    Message 1 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
    • 0 Attachment
      Hi all

      No good news from STEREO-A. Matthew Knight has sent me his photometry of
      spacecraft images to 15UT 25. Nov. They well corresponds to latest
      visual observations. After strong fade, comet has started to gaining
      brightness again. Unfortunately with speed far bellow (n=0.66)
      brightening for simple reflecting body (n=2). If we assume that all
      brightness coming from dust cloud, there is nothing inside coma that can
      resupply dust to coma at least on same level. What is worst, deviation
      from average activity level keep growing. Such characteristic more
      corresponds to slowly scattering dust cloud, then intact comet.

      http://www.kommet.cz/datas/users/ison-lc-perv2_1.png

      Best regards,
      Jakub Cerny
    • filipfratev
      Hi Jakup, Let s to wait for the new set of STEREO photometry including up to 26.5-27.5/11/2013. There is a clear difference from 25.5:
      Message 2 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
      • 0 Attachment

        Hi Jakup,

        Let's to wait for the new set of STEREO photometry including up to 26.5-27.5/11/2013. There is a clear difference from 25.5:

        http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/25/ahead/hi1/1024/20131125_151801_s7h1A.jpg

        to 26.4:

        http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/ahead/hi1/1024/20131126_091801_s7h1A.jpg

        I hope that the comet is on the "good line"now. Moreover you can see this:

        http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/2048/20131126_093924_d7c2B.jpg

        and after 2h UT this night we can expect to have access to the SOHO images.For me the comet looks still intact.


        Regards,

        Filip




        ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <kaos@...> wrote:

        Hi all

        No good news from STEREO-A. Matthew Knight has sent me his photometry of
        spacecraft images to 15UT 25. Nov. They well corresponds to latest
        visual observations. After strong fade, comet has started to gaining
        brightness again. Unfortunately with speed far bellow (n=0.66)
        brightening for simple reflecting body (n=2). If we assume that all
        brightness coming from dust cloud, there is nothing inside coma that can
        resupply dust to coma at least on same level. What is worst, deviation
        from average activity level keep growing. Such characteristic more
        corresponds to slowly scattering dust cloud, then intact comet.

        http://www.kommet.cz/datas/users/ison-lc-perv2_1.png

        Best regards,
        Jakub Cerny
      • Ignacio Ferrin
        Hi all: I have just updated the Visual Secular Light Curve of comet ISON. The light curve show an outburst that started on Nov. 14.035, then the light curve
        Message 3 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
        • 0 Attachment
          Hi all:
          I have just updated the Visual Secular Light Curve of
          comet ISON.  The light curve show an outburst that
          started on Nov. 14.035, then the light curve continues
          increasing until it gets to a flat maximum and starts
          to decrease.  The maximum took place on November
          25.25 

          If we examine the light curves of the 11 previous comets that
          disintegrated, we learn that disintegration took place
          soon after the maximum.  So this light curve is 
          consistent with a disintegration event and consistent
          with all the previous observations.  However we still lack
          visual confirmation.  

          I also find the STEREO observations weaker as a 
          function of time, or is this my imagination?

          You can see the visual light curve here:


          Ignacio
          oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

        • W.-T. Hsu
          I spent some time measuring C/2012 S1 in HI-1A till 20131124. The images were all first calibrated by SECCHI_PREP in IDL. The zero-point for HI-1A images is
          Message 4 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
          • 0 Attachment
            I spent some time measuring C/2012 S1 in HI-1A till 20131124. The
            images were all first calibrated by SECCHI_PREP in IDL. The zero-point
            for HI-1A images is available in Bewsher et al. 2010 and 2012. The
            comet doesn't look healthy anyway. You could find my plot here:
            http://comethunter.lamost.org/scwrk/STEREO/HI1A/CK12S010/CK12S010_HI1A_phot.png

            Man-To
            --
            Man-To Hui (Cantonese)
            Bùi Văn Tháo (Tiếng Kinh)
            Wentao Xu, Wen-Tao Hsu (Mandarin Chinese)
            Astrowebpage: comethunter.lamost.org
            Personal Blog: pachacoti.wordpress.com
          • CheekyGeek
            Purely a layperson here, but this series of images from this morning (admittedly low-res) are interesting. Does anyone have access to the high res version of
            Message 5 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
            • 0 Attachment
              Purely a layperson here, but this series of images from this morning (admittedly low-res) are interesting. Does anyone have access to the high res version of the middle (14:40) link?


              On Tue, Nov 26, 2013 at 7:53 AM, Ignacio Ferrin <respuestas2013@...> wrote:
               

              Hi all:
              I have just updated the Visual Secular Light Curve of
              comet ISON.  The light curve show an outburst that
              started on Nov. 14.035, then the light curve continues
              increasing until it gets to a flat maximum and starts
              to decrease.  The maximum took place on November
              25.25 

              If we examine the light curves of the 11 previous comets that
              disintegrated, we learn that disintegration took place
              soon after the maximum.  So this light curve is 
              consistent with a disintegration event and consistent
              with all the previous observations.  However we still lack
              visual confirmation.  

              I also find the STEREO observations weaker as a 
              function of time, or is this my imagination?

              You can see the visual light curve here:


              Ignacio
              oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo




              --
              I do my best proofreading right after I hit "Send".
            • ilpoliedrico@ymail.com
              Hi, http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/2048/20131126_143924_d7c2B.jpg
              Message 6 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
              • 0 Attachment

                Hi,

                http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/2048/20131126_143924_d7c2B.jpg

                Umby 



                ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <cheekygeek@...> wrote:

                Puramente un laico qui, ma questa serie di immagini di questa mattina (dichiaratamente low-res) sono interessanti. Qualcuno ha accesso alla versione ad alta risoluzione della metà (14:40) Link?


                On Tue, Nov 26, 2013 alle 07:53, Ignacio Ferrin < respuestas2013 @ ... > ha scritto:
                 
                Ciao a tutti:
                Ho appena aggiornato di Visual Secolare di curve di luce di
                cometa ISON. La curva di luce mostra uno sfogo che
                iniziato il novembre 14,035, poi la curva di luce continua
                aumentando fino a raggiungere un massimo piatta e inizia
                a diminuire. La massima ha avuto luogo nel novembre
                25.25 

                Se esaminiamo le curve di luce di 11 comete precedenti
                disintegrato, apprendiamo che la disintegrazione ha avuto luogo
                subito dopo il massimo. Quindi questa curva di luce è 
                coerente con un evento disintegrazione e coerente
                con tutte le precedenti osservazioni. Tuttavia ci manca ancora
                conferma visiva.  

                Trovo anche le osservazioni STEREO più deboli come 
                in funzione del tempo, o è la mia immaginazione?

                Si può vedere la curva di luce visibile qui:


                Ignacio
                oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo




                -
                Faccio del mio meglio correzione subito dopo ho colpito "Invia".
              • mongo62aa
                Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 2m Hot off the press from Kitt Peak: Matthew Knight sees a nice steady increase in #ISON s brightness since yesterday.
                Message 7 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
                • 0 Attachment

                  Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 2m

                  Hot off the press from Kitt Peak: Matthew Knight sees a nice steady increase in #ISON's brightness since yesterday.

                  Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 1m

                  Quote from Matthew: "Since yesterday, #ISON has been behaving nicely!" Latest data is only 5hrs old! #CIOC



                  ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <umbywankenobi@...> wrote:

                  Hi,

                  http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/2048/20131126_143924_d7c2B.jpg

                  Umby 



                  ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <cheekygeek@...> wrote:

                  Puramente un laico qui, ma questa serie di immagini di questa mattina (dichiaratamente low-res) sono interessanti. Qualcuno ha accesso alla versione ad alta risoluzione della metà (14:40) Link?


                  On Tue, Nov 26, 2013 alle 07:53, Ignacio Ferrin < respuestas2013 @ ... > ha scritto:
                   
                  Ciao a tutti:
                  Ho appena aggiornato di Visual Secolare di curve di luce di
                  cometa ISON. La curva di luce mostra uno sfogo che
                  iniziato il novembre 14,035, poi la curva di luce continua
                  aumentando fino a raggiungere un massimo piatta e inizia
                  a diminuire. La massima ha avuto luogo nel novembre
                  25.25 

                  Se esaminiamo le curve di luce di 11 comete precedenti
                  disintegrato, apprendiamo che la disintegrazione ha avuto luogo
                  subito dopo il massimo. Quindi questa curva di luce è 
                  coerente con un evento disintegrazione e coerente
                  con tutte le precedenti osservazioni. Tuttavia ci manca ancora
                  conferma visiva.  

                  Trovo anche le osservazioni STEREO più deboli come 
                  in funzione del tempo, o è la mia immaginazione?

                  Si può vedere la curva di luce visibile qui:


                  Ignacio
                  oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo




                  -
                  Faccio del mio meglio correzione subito dopo ho colpito "Invia".
                • filipfratev
                  NASA confirmed that the comet has nice/normal behaviour again for the last 24h... which in my opinion is obvious from the last STEREO images. Let s to be more
                  Message 8 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
                  • 0 Attachment

                    NASA confirmed that the comet has nice/normal behaviour again for the last 24h... which in my opinion is  obvious from the last STEREO images. Let's to be more optimistic :)


                    Regards,     



                    ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <mongo62aa@...> wrote:

                    Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 2m

                    Hot off the press from Kitt Peak: Matthew Knight sees a nice steady increase in #ISON's brightness since yesterday.

                    Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 1m

                    Quote from Matthew: "Since yesterday, #ISON has been behaving nicely!" Latest data is only 5hrs old! #CIOC



                    ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <umbywankenobi@...> wrote:

                    Hi,

                    http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/2048/20131126_143924_d7c2B.jpg

                    Umby 



                    ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <cheekygeek@...> wrote:

                    Puramente un laico qui, ma questa serie di immagini di questa mattina (dichiaratamente low-res) sono interessanti. Qualcuno ha accesso alla versione ad alta risoluzione della metà (14:40) Link?


                    On Tue, Nov 26, 2013 alle 07:53, Ignacio Ferrin < respuestas2013 @ ... > ha scritto:
                     
                    Ciao a tutti:
                    Ho appena aggiornato di Visual Secolare di curve di luce di
                    cometa ISON. La curva di luce mostra uno sfogo che
                    iniziato il novembre 14,035, poi la curva di luce continua
                    aumentando fino a raggiungere un massimo piatta e inizia
                    a diminuire. La massima ha avuto luogo nel novembre
                    25.25 

                    Se esaminiamo le curve di luce di 11 comete precedenti
                    disintegrato, apprendiamo che la disintegrazione ha avuto luogo
                    subito dopo il massimo. Quindi questa curva di luce è 
                    coerente con un evento disintegrazione e coerente
                    con tutte le precedenti osservazioni. Tuttavia ci manca ancora
                    conferma visiva.  

                    Trovo anche le osservazioni STEREO più deboli come 
                    in funzione del tempo, o è la mia immaginazione?

                    Si può vedere la curva di luce visibile qui:


                    Ignacio
                    oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo




                    -
                    Faccio del mio meglio correzione subito dopo ho colpito "Invia".
                  • Jakub Cerny
                    Term nice is very relative in scientific language. I have updated the light curve with latest STEREO data from Matthew:
                    Message 9 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
                    • 0 Attachment
                      Term "nice" is very relative in scientific language.

                      I have updated the light curve with latest STEREO data from Matthew:
                      http://www.kommet.cz/datas/users/ison-lc-perv2_1.png

                      There is maybe indication that comet is finding some "solid ground" in its decline, however deviation from its average magnitude parameter keep growing. Stabilization on such low level isnt optimistic, if there exist any piece of intact nucleus it need to show much larger activity increase to positive trend be convincing.

                      Best regards,
                      Jakub

                      On 11/26/2013 07:37 PM, filipfratev@... wrote:
                       

                      NASA confirmed that the comet has nice/normal behaviour again for the last 24h... which in my opinion is  obvious from the last STEREO images. Let's to be more optimistic :)


                      Regards,     



                      ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <mongo62aa@...> wrote:

                      Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 2m

                      Hot off the press from Kitt Peak: Matthew Knight sees a nice steady increase in #ISON's brightness since yesterday.

                      Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 1m

                      Quote from Matthew: "Since yesterday, #ISON has been behaving nicely!" Latest data is only 5hrs old! #CIOC



                      ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <umbywankenobi@...> wrote:

                      Hi,

                      http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/2048/20131126_143924_d7c2B.jpg

                      Umby 



                      ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <cheekygeek@...> wrote:

                      Puramente un laico qui, ma questa serie di immagini di questa mattina (dichiaratamente low-res) sono interessanti. Qualcuno ha accesso alla versione ad alta risoluzione della metà (14:40) Link?


                      On Tue, Nov 26, 2013 alle 07:53, Ignacio Ferrin < respuestas2013 @ ... > ha scritto:
                       
                      Ciao a tutti:
                      Ho appena aggiornato di Visual Secolare di curve di luce di
                      cometa ISON. La curva di luce mostra uno sfogo che
                      iniziato il novembre 14,035, poi la curva di luce continua
                      aumentando fino a raggiungere un massimo piatta e inizia
                      a diminuire. La massima ha avuto luogo nel novembre
                      25.25 

                      Se esaminiamo le curve di luce di 11 comete precedenti
                      disintegrato, apprendiamo che la disintegrazione ha avuto luogo
                      subito dopo il massimo. Quindi questa curva di luce è 
                      coerente con un evento disintegrazione e coerente
                      con tutte le precedenti osservazioni. Tuttavia ci manca ancora
                      conferma visiva.  

                      Trovo anche le osservazioni STEREO più deboli come 
                      in funzione del tempo, o è la mia immaginazione?

                      Si può vedere la curva di luce visibile qui:


                      Ignacio
                      oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo




                      -
                      Faccio del mio meglio correzione subito dopo ho colpito "Invia".

                    • walcom77
                      New MPEC just released for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON): http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K13/K13W16.html Ciao, Ernesto http://remanzacco.blogspot.com
                      Message 10 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
                      • 0 Attachment
                      • christopheciel
                        Dear all, Waiting for news, I did a few image processing today with 20 images from Stereo-A images, using Iris software. You can see the result here :
                        Message 11 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
                        • 0 Attachment
                          Dear all,

                          Waiting for news, I did a few image processing today with 20 images from Stereo-A images, using Iris software.
                          You can see the result here :

                          http://www.flickr.com/photos/93826649@N04/with/11072125706/

                          It seems that a ion tail can be seen on the image, but ...
                          At least a "pseudo ion tail" can be seen on the animations made from those Stereo-A images that looks like a "ion tail" that follow Ison's coma in its move in front of the stars. Alas, I'm not able to make an animated .gif, but I can provide the working .fit.
                          That "pseudo ion tail" is not stricktly parallel to the ion tail of Encke, to say. Still, it is not stricktly parallel too to the star trails.
                          More : some images are showing a twin coma when enlarged - some not -, but I do think that it is only a question of poor quality of the original images. The Stereo-A images looks like if they were blurred by some moves of the satellite...
                          Finally, there is an asymmetry of the coma on the processed image...

                          Cheers,
                          Christophe M

                        • filipfratev
                          Jakub, I agree with you and understand your point. However according to your two different light curves there is a 5 magnitudes difference in the maximum (from
                          Message 12 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
                          • 0 Attachment

                            Jakub,

                            I agree with you and understand your point. However according to your two different light curves there is a 5 magnitudes difference in the maximum (from +2.5 to -2.5m) and this is only after plus one day data!

                            I really thank you for sharing these data, which give us the opportunity to see what is the current status! Personally I don't believe that anyone can predict theoretically the brightness maximum. In addition in NASA are sceptical about observed non gravitational effects and in general that the comet has already disrupted.


                            Regards,

                            Filip

                                     



                            ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <kaos@...> wrote:

                            Term "nice" is very relative in scientific language.

                            I have updated the light curve with latest STEREO data from Matthew:
                            http://www.kommet.cz/datas/users/ison-lc-perv2_1.png

                            There is maybe indication that comet is finding some "solid ground" in its decline, however deviation from its average magnitude parameter keep growing. Stabilization on such low level isnt optimistic, if there exist any piece of intact nucleus it need to show much larger activity increase to positive trend be convincing.

                            Best regards,
                            Jakub

                            On 11/26/2013 07:37 PM, filipfratev@... wrote:
                             

                            NASA confirmed that the comet has nice/normal behaviour again for the last 24h... which in my opinion is  obvious from the last STEREO images. Let's to be more optimistic :)


                            Regards,     



                            ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <mongo62aa@...> wrote:

                            Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 2m

                            Hot off the press from Kitt Peak: Matthew Knight sees a nice steady increase in #ISON's brightness since yesterday.

                            Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 1m

                            Quote from Matthew: "Since yesterday, #ISON has been behaving nicely!" Latest data is only 5hrs old! #CIOC



                            ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <umbywankenobi@...> wrote:

                            Hi,

                            http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/2048/20131126_143924_d7c2B.jpg

                            Umby 



                            ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <cheekygeek@...> wrote:

                            Puramente un laico qui, ma questa serie di immagini di questa mattina (dichiaratamente low-res) sono interessanti. Qualcuno ha accesso alla versione ad alta risoluzione della metà (14:40) Link?


                            On Tue, Nov 26, 2013 alle 07:53, Ignacio Ferrin < respuestas2013 @ ... > ha scritto:
                             
                            Ciao a tutti:
                            Ho appena aggiornato di Visual Secolare di curve di luce di
                            cometa ISON. La curva di luce mostra uno sfogo che
                            iniziato il novembre 14,035, poi la curva di luce continua
                            aumentando fino a raggiungere un massimo piatta e inizia
                            a diminuire. La massima ha avuto luogo nel novembre
                            25.25 

                            Se esaminiamo le curve di luce di 11 comete precedenti
                            disintegrato, apprendiamo che la disintegrazione ha avuto luogo
                            subito dopo il massimo. Quindi questa curva di luce è 
                            coerente con un evento disintegrazione e coerente
                            con tutte le precedenti osservazioni. Tuttavia ci manca ancora
                            conferma visiva.  

                            Trovo anche le osservazioni STEREO più deboli come 
                            in funzione del tempo, o è la mia immaginazione?

                            Si può vedere la curva di luce visibile qui:


                            Ignacio
                            oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo




                            -
                            Faccio del mio meglio correzione subito dopo ho colpito "Invia".

                          • Jakub Cerny
                            Hi, it may be quite interesting to inspect if it is not synchronic feature same seen in case of comet Lovejoy. Best regards, Jakub Cerny
                            Message 13 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
                            • 0 Attachment
                              Hi,

                              it may be quite interesting to inspect if it is not synchronic feature same seen in case of comet Lovejoy.

                              Best regards,
                              Jakub Cerny

                              On 11/26/2013 08:53 PM, chrismlt@... wrote:
                               

                              Dear all,

                              Waiting for news, I did a few image processing today with 20 images from Stereo-A images, using Iris software.
                              You can see the result here :

                              http://www.flickr.com/photos/93826649@N04/with/11072125706/

                              It seems that a ion tail can be seen on the image, but ...
                              At least a "pseudo ion tail" can be seen on the animations made from those Stereo-A images that looks like a "ion tail" that follow Ison's coma in its move in front of the stars. Alas, I'm not able to make an animated .gif, but I can provide the working .fit.
                              That "pseudo ion tail" is not stricktly parallel to the ion tail of Encke, to say. Still, it is not stricktly parallel too to the star trails.
                              More : some images are showing a twin coma when enlarged - some not -, but I do think that it is only a question of poor quality of the original images. The Stereo-A images looks like if they were blurred by some moves of the satellite...
                              Fin ally, there is an asymmetry of the coma on the processed image...

                              Cheers,
                              Christophe M


                            • Piotr Guzik
                              Isn t this synchronic feature visible in that image?   http://spaceweathergallery.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=90293&PHPSESSID=njcc6f9gfsk07bgsa3s0ceml67  
                              Message 14 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
                              • 0 Attachment
                                Isn't this synchronic feature visible in that image?
                                 
                                http://spaceweathergallery.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=90293&PHPSESSID=njcc6f9gfsk07bgsa3s0ceml67
                                 
                                 

                                it may be quite interesting to inspect if it is not synchronic feature same seen in case of comet Lovejoy.

                                 
                                Best Regards
                                --
                                Piotr Guzik
                              • Jakub Cerny
                                Hi Piotr, it may be, but it is not clear if it is different structure or just bright thin part of ion tail (which is definitively part of it) Best regards,
                                Message 15 of 23 , Nov 26, 2013
                                • 0 Attachment
                                  Hi Piotr,

                                  it may be, but it is not clear if it is different structure or just bright thin part of ion tail (which is definitively part of it)

                                  Best regards,
                                  Jakub

                                  On 11/26/2013 10:09 PM, Piotr Guzik wrote:
                                   
                                  Isn't this synchronic feature visible in that image?
                                   
                                   
                                   

                                  it may be quite interesting to inspect if it is not synchronic feature same seen in case of comet Lovejoy.

                                   
                                  Best Regards
                                  --
                                  Piotr Guzik

                                • biver_nicolas
                                  Dear All, The comet is apparently not dead yet (its coma starts saturating LASCO images as Antares?): Today at IRAM I marginally detected emission for HCN
                                  Message 16 of 23 , Nov 27, 2013
                                  • 0 Attachment

                                    Dear All,


                                    The comet is apparently not dead yet (its coma starts saturating LASCO images as Antares?):

                                    Today at IRAM I marginally detected emission for HCN around 10-12 UT

                                    If I take into account the possibly high temperature in the coma it may be outgassing half as much as during the Nov 14 to 22 outburst.

                                    But the line seems weaker at some other times. Otherwise it looked like peaking close to the latest ephemeris position (with strong A1/A2 non grav. parameters)... but this marginal, still.


                                    Nicolas



                                    ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <kaos@...> wrote:

                                    Term "nice" is very relative in scientific language.

                                    I have updated the light curve with latest STEREO data from Matthew:
                                    http://www.kommet.cz/datas/users/ison-lc-perv2_1.png

                                    There is maybe indication that comet is finding some "solid ground" in its decline, however deviation from its average magnitude parameter keep growing. Stabilization on such low level isnt optimistic, if there exist any piece of intact nucleus it need to show much larger activity increase to positive trend be convincing.

                                    Best regards,
                                    Jakub

                                    On 11/26/2013 07:37 PM, filipfratev@... wrote:
                                     

                                    NASA confirmed that the comet has nice/normal behaviour again for the last 24h... which in my opinion is  obvious from the last STEREO images. Let's to be more optimistic :)


                                    Regards,     



                                    ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <mongo62aa@...> wrote:

                                    Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 2m

                                    Hot off the press from Kitt Peak: Matthew Knight sees a nice steady increase in #ISON's brightness since yesterday.

                                    Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 1m

                                    Quote from Matthew: "Since yesterday, #ISON has been behaving nicely!" Latest data is only 5hrs old! #CIOC



                                    ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <umbywankenobi@...> wrote:

                                    Hi,

                                    http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/2048/20131126_143924_d7c2B.jpg

                                    Umby 



                                    ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <cheekygeek@...> wrote:

                                    Puramente un laico qui, ma questa serie di immagini di questa mattina (dichiaratamente low-res) sono interessanti. Qualcuno ha accesso alla versione ad alta risoluzione della metà (14:40) Link?


                                    On Tue, Nov 26, 2013 alle 07:53, Ignacio Ferrin < respuestas2013 @ ... > ha scritto:
                                     
                                    Ciao a tutti:
                                    Ho appena aggiornato di Visual Secolare di curve di luce di
                                    cometa ISON. La curva di luce mostra uno sfogo che
                                    iniziato il novembre 14,035, poi la curva di luce continua
                                    aumentando fino a raggiungere un massimo piatta e inizia
                                    a diminuire. La massima ha avuto luogo nel novembre
                                    25.25 

                                    Se esaminiamo le curve di luce di 11 comete precedenti
                                    disintegrato, apprendiamo che la disintegrazione ha avuto luogo
                                    subito dopo il massimo. Quindi questa curva di luce è 
                                    coerente con un evento disintegrazione e coerente
                                    con tutte le precedenti osservazioni. Tuttavia ci manca ancora
                                    conferma visiva.  

                                    Trovo anche le osservazioni STEREO più deboli come 
                                    in funzione del tempo, o è la mia immaginazione?

                                    Si può vedere la curva di luce visibile qui:


                                    Ignacio
                                    oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo




                                    -
                                    Faccio del mio meglio correzione subito dopo ho colpito "Invia".

                                  • rickbaldridge
                                    For comet Lovejoy in 2011, we used a 16” telescope with a 3” off-axis aperture stop, then we carefully used the dome shutter to keep the Sun’s rays out
                                    Message 17 of 23 , Nov 27, 2013
                                    • 0 Attachment

                                       

                                      For comet Lovejoy in 2011, we used a 16” telescope with a 3” off-axis aperture stop, then we carefully used the dome shutter to keep the Sun’s rays out of the telescope.  Lovejoy was only 4.2 degrees due west of the Sun at the time, which meant we could easily use a vertical dome shutter at noon to block the Sun.  This is tricky, and potentially dangerous obviously.  My disclaimer -- Not recommended unless you really know what you are doing.

                                       

                                      Shielding the sun with a street light, building edge, etc. can work.  See:  http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/highlights/Spot-Comet-ISON-at-Perihelion-233011581.html

                                       

                                      At present, ISON is NOT bright enough to be seen in the daylight.  It’s WAY fainter than Lovejoy was, and we just BARELY saw that.

                                       

                                      COMPARE this SOHO image of ISON take at 14:18 UT today (just an hour ago)      

                                      http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov//data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2013/c3/20131127/20131127_1418_c3_1024.jpg 

                                      with the image of LOVEJOY at:

                                      http://www.flickr.com/photos/xb70man/11076393664/

                                       

                                      The thing to compare is the left-right BLOOMING of the pixels at the comet’s head, NOT the extent of the tail.  At 14:18UT Nov 27th, ISON had barely a few pixels of blooming, less than Antares, which is magnitude 1.03.  LOVEJOY was near mag -1.5 when we saw it visually in daylight in 2011.  I don't think is it going to be visible visually in daylight unless something dramatic happens in the next day.

                                       

                                      Clear skies!

                                       

                                      Rick Baldridge

                                       

                                       

                                       

                                       


                                      ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <Nicolas.Biver@...> wrote:

                                      Dear All,


                                      The comet is apparently not dead yet (its coma starts saturating LASCO images as Antares?):

                                      Today at IRAM I marginally detected emission for HCN around 10-12 UT

                                      If I take into account the possibly high temperature in the coma it may be outgassing half as much as during the Nov 14 to 22 outburst.

                                      But the line seems weaker at some other times. Otherwise it looked like peaking close to the latest ephemeris position (with strong A1/A2 non grav. parameters)... but this marginal, still.


                                      Nicolas



                                      ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <kaos@...> wrote:

                                      Term "nice" is very relative in scientific language.

                                      I have updated the light curve with latest STEREO data from Matthew:
                                      http://www.kommet.cz/datas/users/ison-lc-perv2_1.png

                                      There is maybe indication that comet is finding some "solid ground" in its decline, however deviation from its average magnitude parameter keep growing. Stabilization on such low level isnt optimistic, if there exist any piece of intact nucleus it need to show much larger activity increase to positive trend be convincing.

                                      Best regards,
                                      Jakub

                                      On 11/26/2013 07:37 PM, filipfratev@... wrote:
                                       

                                      NASA confirmed that the comet has nice/normal behaviour again for the last 24h... which in my opinion is  obvious from the last STEREO images. Let's to be more optimistic :)


                                      Regards,     



                                      ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <mongo62aa@...> wrote:

                                      Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 2m

                                      Hot off the press from Kitt Peak: Matthew Knight sees a nice steady increase in #ISON's brightness since yesterday.

                                      Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 1m

                                      Quote from Matthew: "Since yesterday, #ISON has been behaving nicely!" Latest data is only 5hrs old! #CIOC



                                      ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <umbywankenobi@...> wrote:

                                      Hi,

                                      http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/2048/20131126_143924_d7c2B.jpg

                                      Umby 



                                      ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <cheekygeek@...> wrote:

                                      Puramente un laico qui, ma questa serie di immagini di questa mattina (dichiaratamente low-res) sono interessanti. Qualcuno ha accesso alla versione ad alta risoluzione della metà (14:40) Link?


                                      On Tue, Nov 26, 2013 alle 07:53, Ignacio Ferrin < respuestas2013 @ ... > ha scritto:
                                       
                                      Ciao a tutti:
                                      Ho appena aggiornato di Visual Secolare di curve di luce di
                                      cometa ISON. La curva di luce mostra uno sfogo che
                                      iniziato il novembre 14,035, poi la curva di luce continua
                                      aumentando fino a raggiungere un massimo piatta e inizia
                                      a diminuire. La massima ha avuto luogo nel novembre
                                      25.25 

                                      Se esaminiamo le curve di luce di 11 comete precedenti
                                      disintegrato, apprendiamo che la disintegrazione ha avuto luogo
                                      subito dopo il massimo. Quindi questa curva di luce è 
                                      coerente con un evento disintegrazione e coerente
                                      con tutte le precedenti osservazioni. Tuttavia ci manca ancora
                                      conferma visiva.  

                                      Trovo anche le osservazioni STEREO più deboli come 
                                      in funzione del tempo, o è la mia immaginazione?

                                      Si può vedere la curva di luce visibile qui:


                                      Ignacio
                                      oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo




                                      -
                                      Faccio del mio meglio correzione subito dopo ho colpito "Invia".

                                    • mongo62aa
                                      This Tweet just came in: Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 3m Latest from Matthew Knight: Comet #ISON has increased in brightness by at least a factor of 4
                                      Message 18 of 23 , Nov 27, 2013
                                      • 0 Attachment

                                        This Tweet just came in:


                                        Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 3m 

                                        Latest from Matthew Knight: Comet #ISON has increased in brightness by at least a factor of 4 since entering the LASCO data. Yay! #CIOC



                                        ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <Nicolas.Biver@...> wrote:

                                        Dear All,


                                        The comet is apparently not dead yet (its coma starts saturating LASCO images as Antares?):

                                        Today at IRAM I marginally detected emission for HCN around 10-12 UT

                                        If I take into account the possibly high temperature in the coma it may be outgassing half as much as during the Nov 14 to 22 outburst.

                                        But the line seems weaker at some other times. Otherwise it looked like peaking close to the latest ephemeris position (with strong A1/A2 non grav. parameters)... but this marginal, still.


                                        Nicolas



                                        ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <kaos@...> wrote:

                                        Term "nice" is very relative in scientific language.

                                        I have updated the light curve with latest STEREO data from Matthew:
                                        http://www.kommet.cz/datas/users/ison-lc-perv2_1.png

                                        There is maybe indication that comet is finding some "solid ground" in its decline, however deviation from its average magnitude parameter keep growing. Stabilization on such low level isnt optimistic, if there exist any piece of intact nucleus it need to show much larger activity increase to positive trend be convincing.

                                        Best regards,
                                        Jakub

                                        On 11/26/2013 07:37 PM, filipfratev@... wrote:
                                         

                                        NASA confirmed that the comet has nice/normal behaviour again for the last 24h... which in my opinion is  obvious from the last STEREO images. Let's to be more optimistic :)


                                        Regards,     



                                        ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <mongo62aa@...> wrote:

                                        Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 2m

                                        Hot off the press from Kitt Peak: Matthew Knight sees a nice steady increase in #ISON's brightness since yesterday.

                                        Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 1m

                                        Quote from Matthew: "Since yesterday, #ISON has been behaving nicely!" Latest data is only 5hrs old! #CIOC



                                        ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <umbywankenobi@...> wrote:

                                        Hi,

                                        http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/2048/20131126_143924_d7c2B.jpg

                                        Umby 



                                        ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <cheekygeek@...> wrote:

                                        Puramente un laico qui, ma questa serie di immagini di questa mattina (dichiaratamente low-res) sono interessanti. Qualcuno ha accesso alla versione ad alta risoluzione della metà (14:40) Link?


                                        On Tue, Nov 26, 2013 alle 07:53, Ignacio Ferrin < respuestas2013 @ ... > ha scritto:
                                         
                                        Ciao a tutti:
                                        Ho appena aggiornato di Visual Secolare di curve di luce di
                                        cometa ISON. La curva di luce mostra uno sfogo che
                                        iniziato il novembre 14,035, poi la curva di luce continua
                                        aumentando fino a raggiungere un massimo piatta e inizia
                                        a diminuire. La massima ha avuto luogo nel novembre
                                        25.25 

                                        Se esaminiamo le curve di luce di 11 comete precedenti
                                        disintegrato, apprendiamo che la disintegrazione ha avuto luogo
                                        subito dopo il massimo. Quindi questa curva di luce è 
                                        coerente con un evento disintegrazione e coerente
                                        con tutte le precedenti osservazioni. Tuttavia ci manca ancora
                                        conferma visiva.  

                                        Trovo anche le osservazioni STEREO più deboli come 
                                        in funzione del tempo, o è la mia immaginazione?

                                        Si può vedere la curva di luce visibile qui:


                                        Ignacio
                                        oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo




                                        -
                                        Faccio del mio meglio correzione subito dopo ho colpito "Invia".

                                      • herbraab
                                        ... I hope we will see the magnitudes at some point. Currently, ISON does not seem to be brighter than Antares (V=1.0mag) in the LASCO images. In the more
                                        Message 19 of 23 , Nov 27, 2013
                                        • 0 Attachment

                                           
                                          > Latest from Matthew Knight: Comet #ISON has increased in brightness by at least a factor
                                          > of 4 since entering the LASCO data. Yay!
                                           
                                          I hope we will see the magnitudes at some point. Currently, ISON does not seem to be brighter than
                                          Antares (V=1.0mag) in the LASCO images. In the more optimistic scenario that Jakub Cerny has posted
                                          here two days ago, it should be at magnitude -1 or so by now. At least, it's certainly somewhat brighter
                                          than in Jakub Cerny's "minimal" scenario.
                                           
                                          Anyway, the moment of truth is perihelion... :)
                                           
                                          Cheers,
                                            Herbert
                                           
                                        • ardamir
                                          Hello Rick, You are comparing an image of comet ISON +-28 hours before perihelion to an image of comet Lovejoy +-20 hours after perihelion. These 2 images are
                                          Message 20 of 23 , Nov 27, 2013
                                          • 0 Attachment

                                            Hello Rick,


                                            You are comparing an image of comet ISON +-28 hours before perihelion to an image of comet Lovejoy +-20 hours after perihelion. These 2 images are both +-28 hours before perihelion:


                                            https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24696554/ISON_20131127_1430_c3_1024.jpg
                                            https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24696554/Lovejoy_20111214_2018_c3_1024.jpg


                                            Here ISON is causing blooming in the CCD while Lovejoy did not yet reach that point.


                                            I also hope to see my second daylight comet, after McNaught in 2007, but it seems to become a lot harder to do. At the moment the weather also does not seem to be willing to cooperate...


                                            Clear skies,
                                            Koen van Gorp


                                            ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <rickbaldridge@...> wrote:

                                             

                                            For comet Lovejoy in 2011, we used a 16” telescope with a 3” off-axis aperture stop, then we carefully used the dome shutter to keep the Sun’s rays out of the telescope.  Lovejoy was only 4.2 degrees due west of the Sun at the time, which meant we could easily use a vertical dome shutter at noon to block the Sun.  This is tricky, and potentially dangerous obviously.  My disclaimer -- Not recommended unless you really know what you are doing.

                                             

                                            Shielding the sun with a street light, building edge, etc. can work.  See:  http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/highlights/Spot-Comet-ISON-at-Perihelion-233011581.html

                                             

                                            At present, ISON is NOT bright enough to be seen in the daylight.  It’s WAY fainter than Lovejoy was, and we just BARELY saw that.

                                             

                                            COMPARE this SOHO image of ISON take at 14:18 UT today (just an hour ago)      

                                            http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov//data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2013/c3/20131127/20131127_1418_c3_1024.jpg 

                                            with the image of LOVEJOY at:

                                            http://www.flickr.com/photos/xb70man/11076393664/

                                             

                                            The thing to compare is the left-right BLOOMING of the pixels at the comet’s head, NOT the extent of the tail.  At 14:18UT Nov 27th, ISON had barely a few pixels of blooming, less than Antares, which is magnitude 1.03.  LOVEJOY was near mag -1.5 when we saw it visually in daylight in 2011.  I don't think is it going to be visible visually in daylight unless something dramatic happens in the next day.

                                             

                                            Clear skies!

                                             

                                            Rick Baldridge

                                             

                                             

                                             

                                             


                                            ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <Nicolas.Biver@...> wrote:

                                            Dear All,


                                            The comet is apparently not dead yet (its coma starts saturating LASCO images as Antares?):

                                            Today at IRAM I marginally detected emission for HCN around 10-12 UT

                                            If I take into account the possibly high temperature in the coma it may be outgassing half as much as during the Nov 14 to 22 outburst.

                                            But the line seems weaker at some other times. Otherwise it looked like peaking close to the latest ephemeris position (with strong A1/A2 non grav. parameters)... but this marginal, still.


                                            Nicolas



                                            ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <kaos@...> wrote:

                                            Term "nice" is very relative in scientific language.

                                            I have updated the light curve with latest STEREO data from Matthew:
                                            http://www.kommet.cz/datas/users/ison-lc-perv2_1.png

                                            There is maybe indication that comet is finding some "solid ground" in its decline, however deviation from its average magnitude parameter keep growing. Stabilization on such low level isnt optimistic, if there exist any piece of intact nucleus it need to show much larger activity increase to positive trend be convincing.

                                            Best regards,
                                            Jakub

                                            On 11/26/2013 07:37 PM, filipfratev@... wrote:
                                             

                                            NASA confirmed that the comet has nice/normal behaviour again for the last 24h... which in my opinion is  obvious from the last STEREO images. Let's to be more optimistic :)


                                            Regards,     



                                            ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <mongo62aa@...> wrote:

                                            Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 2m

                                            Hot off the press from Kitt Peak: Matthew Knight sees a nice steady increase in #ISON's brightness since yesterday.

                                            Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 1m

                                            Quote from Matthew: "Since yesterday, #ISON has been behaving nicely!" Latest data is only 5hrs old! #CIOC



                                            ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <umbywankenobi@...> wrote:

                                            Hi,

                                            http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/2048/20131126_143924_d7c2B.jpg

                                            Umby 



                                            ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <cheekygeek@...> wrote:

                                            Puramente un laico qui, ma questa serie di immagini di questa mattina (dichiaratamente low-res) sono interessanti. Qualcuno ha accesso alla versione ad alta risoluzione della metà (14:40) Link?


                                            On Tue, Nov 26, 2013 alle 07:53, Ignacio Ferrin < respuestas2013 @ ... > ha scritto:
                                             
                                            Ciao a tutti:
                                            Ho appena aggiornato di Visual Secolare di curve di luce di
                                            cometa ISON. La curva di luce mostra uno sfogo che
                                            iniziato il novembre 14,035, poi la curva di luce continua
                                            aumentando fino a raggiungere un massimo piatta e inizia
                                            a diminuire. La massima ha avuto luogo nel novembre
                                            25.25 

                                            Se esaminiamo le curve di luce di 11 comete precedenti
                                            disintegrato, apprendiamo che la disintegrazione ha avuto luogo
                                            subito dopo il massimo. Quindi questa curva di luce è 
                                            coerente con un evento disintegrazione e coerente
                                            con tutte le precedenti osservazioni. Tuttavia ci manca ancora
                                            conferma visiva.  

                                            Trovo anche le osservazioni STEREO più deboli come 
                                            in funzione del tempo, o è la mia immaginazione?

                                            Si può vedere la curva di luce visibile qui:


                                            Ignacio
                                            oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo




                                            -
                                            Faccio del mio meglio correzione subito dopo ho colpito "Invia".

                                          • stargazer_08121961
                                            Although I don t have the images to prove it, that is my impression as well. ISON appears to be substantially out-performing Lovejoy at the same stage, based
                                            Message 21 of 23 , Nov 27, 2013
                                            • 0 Attachment

                                               Although I don't have the images to prove it, that is my impression as well.  ISON appears to be substantially out-performing Lovejoy at the same stage, based on my memories of two years ago.  Of course, this still doesn't mean anything for tomorrow, but I am cautiously optimistic that there will be some daylight visual, possibly even naked eye observations.  Even if this occurs, I am not sure if there will be a great show next week, and if there is, I would expect it to be very brief- no more than a few days.  The comet has shown no tendency to maintain brightness surges, rather it tends to fall back to its maddening sluggish level. 



                                              ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <ardamir@...> wrote:

                                              Hello Rick,


                                              You are comparing an image of comet ISON +-28 hours before perihelion to an image of comet Lovejoy +-20 hours after perihelion. These 2 images are both +-28 hours before perihelion:


                                              https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24696554/ISON_20131127_1430_c3_1024.jpg
                                              https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24696554/Lovejoy_20111214_2018_c3_1024.jpg


                                              Here ISON is causing blooming in the CCD while Lovejoy did not yet reach that point.


                                              I also hope to see my second daylight comet, after McNaught in 2007, but it seems to become a lot harder to do. At the moment the weather also does not seem to be willing to cooperate...


                                              Clear skies,
                                              Koen van Gorp


                                              ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <rickbaldridge@...> wrote:

                                               

                                              For comet Lovejoy in 2011, we used a 16” telescope with a 3” off-axis aperture stop, then we carefully used the dome shutter to keep the Sun’s rays out of the telescope.  Lovejoy was only 4.2 degrees due west of the Sun at the time, which meant we could easily use a vertical dome shutter at noon to block the Sun.  This is tricky, and potentially dangerous obviously.  My disclaimer -- Not recommended unless you really know what you are doing.

                                               

                                              Shielding the sun with a street light, building edge, etc. can work.  See:  http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/highlights/Spot-Comet-ISON-at-Perihelion-233011581.html

                                               

                                              At present, ISON is NOT bright enough to be seen in the daylight.  It’s WAY fainter than Lovejoy was, and we just BARELY saw that.

                                               

                                              COMPARE this SOHO image of ISON take at 14:18 UT today (just an hour ago)      

                                              http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov//data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2013/c3/20131127/20131127_1418_c3_1024.jpg 

                                              with the image of LOVEJOY at:

                                              http://www.flickr.com/photos/xb70man/11076393664/

                                               

                                              The thing to compare is the left-right BLOOMING of the pixels at the comet’s head, NOT the extent of the tail.  At 14:18UT Nov 27th, ISON had barely a few pixels of blooming, less than Antares, which is magnitude 1.03.  LOVEJOY was near mag -1.5 when we saw it visually in daylight in 2011.  I don't think is it going to be visible visually in daylight unless something dramatic happens in the next day.

                                               

                                              Clear skies!

                                               

                                              Rick Baldridge

                                               

                                               

                                               

                                               


                                              ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <Nicolas.Biver@...> wrote:

                                              Dear All,


                                              The comet is apparently not dead yet (its coma starts saturating LASCO images as Antares?):

                                              Today at IRAM I marginally detected emission for HCN around 10-12 UT

                                              If I take into account the possibly high temperature in the coma it may be outgassing half as much as during the Nov 14 to 22 outburst.

                                              But the line seems weaker at some other times. Otherwise it looked like peaking close to the latest ephemeris position (with strong A1/A2 non grav. parameters)... but this marginal, still.


                                              Nicolas



                                              ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <kaos@...> wrote:

                                              Term "nice" is very relative in scientific language.

                                              I have updated the light curve with latest STEREO data from Matthew:
                                              http://www.kommet.cz/datas/users/ison-lc-perv2_1.png

                                              There is maybe indication that comet is finding some "solid ground" in its decline, however deviation from its average magnitude parameter keep growing. Stabilization on such low level isnt optimistic, if there exist any piece of intact nucleus it need to show much larger activity increase to positive trend be convincing.

                                              Best regards,
                                              Jakub

                                              On 11/26/2013 07:37 PM, filipfratev@... wrote:
                                               

                                              NASA confirmed that the comet has nice/normal behaviour again for the last 24h... which in my opinion is  obvious from the last STEREO images. Let's to be more optimistic :)


                                              Regards,     



                                              ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <mongo62aa@...> wrote:

                                              Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 2m

                                              Hot off the press from Kitt Peak: Matthew Knight sees a nice steady increase in #ISON's brightness since yesterday.

                                              Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 1m

                                              Quote from Matthew: "Since yesterday, #ISON has been behaving nicely!" Latest data is only 5hrs old! #CIOC



                                              ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <umbywankenobi@...> wrote:

                                              Hi,

                                              http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/2048/20131126_143924_d7c2B.jpg

                                              Umby 



                                              ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <cheekygeek@...> wrote:

                                              Puramente un laico qui, ma questa serie di immagini di questa mattina (dichiaratamente low-res) sono interessanti. Qualcuno ha accesso alla versione ad alta risoluzione della metà (14:40) Link?


                                              On Tue, Nov 26, 2013 alle 07:53, Ignacio Ferrin < respuestas2013 @ ... > ha scritto:
                                               
                                              Ciao a tutti:
                                              Ho appena aggiornato di Visual Secolare di curve di luce di
                                              cometa ISON. La curva di luce mostra uno sfogo che
                                              iniziato il novembre 14,035, poi la curva di luce continua
                                              aumentando fino a raggiungere un massimo piatta e inizia
                                              a diminuire. La massima ha avuto luogo nel novembre
                                              25.25 

                                              Se esaminiamo le curve di luce di 11 comete precedenti
                                              disintegrato, apprendiamo che la disintegrazione ha avuto luogo
                                              subito dopo il massimo. Quindi questa curva di luce è 
                                              coerente con un evento disintegrazione e coerente
                                              con tutte le precedenti osservazioni. Tuttavia ci manca ancora
                                              conferma visiva.  

                                              Trovo anche le osservazioni STEREO più deboli come 
                                              in funzione del tempo, o è la mia immaginazione?

                                              Si può vedere la curva di luce visibile qui:


                                              Ignacio
                                              oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo




                                              -
                                              Faccio del mio meglio correzione subito dopo ho colpito "Invia".

                                            • Desi and Betsi's Dad
                                              Likely a dumb question, but here goes. I know that there have been quite a number of sungrazers seen at close approach now, but have we ever gotten this kind
                                              Message 22 of 23 , Nov 27, 2013
                                              • 0 Attachment
                                                Likely a dumb question, but here goes.

                                                I know that there have been quite a number of sungrazers seen at close approach now, but have we ever gotten this kind of look at a "pristine" comet of this size in this kind of approach?

                                                If so, then have we seen enough similar comets to have the statistics to say with any degree of certainty just what current imagery and sensory data really means for the outcome of Comet ISON C/2012 S1?

                                                Personally, I'm not optimistic.  Some weeks ago I started figuring that this particular comet had only about a 20-30% chance of surviving its sungraze - and I don't think its odds have improved at all.

                                                But my prediction is based on what I suspect about the make-up of the comet, my guess as to the orientation and rotation rate, distances, etc. rather than on a significant statistical analysis of observational data which tells me that my suppositions and guesstimates are correct and likely to support my prediction.

                                                So while I still expect this comet to be largely destroyed to that point that I will never again see it through my binocular or telescope - I'm not sure that I or anyone else can really say exactly what will happen.  I suspect there may be too much potential new science here to be certain as to outcomes.

                                                If I'm demonstrably wrong, I'd appreciate the education.  Until then I'm going to remain 20-30% hopeful!

                                                DTVBA


                                                On Wed, Nov 27, 2013 at 9:54 AM, <stargazer_08121961@...> wrote:
                                                 

                                                 Although I don't have the images to prove it, that is my impression as well.  ISON appears to be substantially out-performing Lovejoy at the same stage, based on my memories of two years ago.  Of course, this still doesn't mean anything for tomorrow, but I am cautiously optimistic that there will be some daylight visual, possibly even naked eye observations.  Even if this occurs, I am not sure if there will be a great show next week, and if there is, I would expect it to be very brief- no more than a few days.  The comet has shown no tendency to maintain brightness surges, rather it tends to fall back to its maddening sluggish level. 



                                                ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <ardamir@...> wrote:

                                                Hello Rick,


                                                You are comparing an image of comet ISON +-28 hours before perihelion to an image of comet Lovejoy +-20 hours after perihelion. These 2 images are both +-28 hours before perihelion:


                                                https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24696554/ISON_20131127_1430_c3_1024.jpg
                                                https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24696554/Lovejoy_20111214_2018_c3_1024.jpg


                                                Here ISON is causing blooming in the CCD while Lovejoy did not yet reach that point.


                                                I also hope to see my second daylight comet, after McNaught in 2007, but it seems to become a lot harder to do. At the moment the weather also does not seem to be willing to cooperate...


                                                Clear skies,
                                                Koen van Gorp


                                                ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <rickbaldridge@...> wrote:

                                                 

                                                For comet Lovejoy in 2011, we used a 16” telescope with a 3” off-axis aperture stop, then we carefully used the dome shutter to keep the Sun’s rays out of the telescope.  Lovejoy was only 4.2 degrees due west of the Sun at the time, which meant we could easily use a vertical dome shutter at noon to block the Sun.  This is tricky, and potentially dangerous obviously.  My disclaimer -- Not recommended unless you really know what you are doing.

                                                 

                                                Shielding the sun with a street light, building edge, etc. can work.  See:  http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/highlights/Spot-Comet-ISON-at-Perihelion-233011581.html

                                                 

                                                At present, ISON is NOT bright enough to be seen in the daylight.  It’s WAY fainter than Lovejoy was, and we just BARELY saw that.

                                                 

                                                COMPARE this SOHO image of ISON take at 14:18 UT today (just an hour ago)      

                                                http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov//data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2013/c3/20131127/20131127_1418_c3_1024.jpg 

                                                with the image of LOVEJOY at:

                                                http://www.flickr.com/photos/xb70man/11076393664/

                                                 

                                                The thing to compare is the left-right BLOOMING of the pixels at the comet’s head, NOT the extent of the tail.  At 14:18UT Nov 27th, ISON had barely a few pixels of blooming, less than Antares, which is magnitude 1.03.  LOVEJOY was near mag -1.5 when we saw it visually in daylight in 2011.  I don't think is it going to be visible visually in daylight unless something dramatic happens in the next day.

                                                 

                                                Clear skies!

                                                 

                                                Rick Baldridge

                                                 

                                                 

                                                 

                                                 


                                                ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <Nicolas.Biver@...> wrote:

                                                Dear All,


                                                The comet is apparently not dead yet (its coma starts saturating LASCO images as Antares?):

                                                Today at IRAM I marginally detected emission for HCN around 10-12 UT

                                                If I take into account the possibly high temperature in the coma it may be outgassing half as much as during the Nov 14 to 22 outburst.

                                                But the line seems weaker at some other times. Otherwise it looked like peaking close to the latest ephemeris position (with strong A1/A2 non grav. parameters)... but this marginal, still.


                                                Nicolas



                                                ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <kaos@...> wrote:

                                                Term "nice" is very relative in scientific language.

                                                I have updated the light curve with latest STEREO data from Matthew:
                                                http://www.kommet.cz/datas/users/ison-lc-perv2_1.png

                                                There is maybe indication that comet is finding some "solid ground" in its decline, however deviation from its average magnitude parameter keep growing. Stabilization on such low level isnt optimistic, if there exist any piece of intact nucleus it need to show much larger activity increase to positive trend be convincing.

                                                Best regards,
                                                Jakub

                                                On 11/26/2013 07:37 PM, filipfratev@... wrote:
                                                 

                                                NASA confirmed that the comet has nice/normal behaviour again for the last 24h... which in my opinion is  obvious from the last STEREO images. Let's to be more optimistic :)


                                                Regards,     



                                                ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <mongo62aa@...> wrote:

                                                Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 2m

                                                Hot off the press from Kitt Peak: Matthew Knight sees a nice steady increase in #ISON's brightness since yesterday.

                                                Sungrazer Comets @SungrazerComets 1m

                                                Quote from Matthew: "Since yesterday, #ISON has been behaving nicely!" Latest data is only 5hrs old! #CIOC



                                                ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <umbywankenobi@...> wrote:

                                                Hi,

                                                http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2013/11/26/behind/cor2/2048/20131126_143924_d7c2B.jpg

                                                Umby 



                                                ---In comets-ml@yahoogroups.com, <cheekygeek@...> wrote:

                                                Puramente un laico qui, ma questa serie di immagini di questa mattina (dichiaratamente low-res) sono interessanti. Qualcuno ha accesso alla versione ad alta risoluzione della metà (14:40) Link?


                                                On Tue, Nov 26, 2013 alle 07:53, Ignacio Ferrin < respuestas2013 @ ... > ha scritto:
                                                 
                                                Ciao a tutti:
                                                Ho appena aggiornato di Visual Secolare di curve di luce di
                                                cometa ISON. La curva di luce mostra uno sfogo che
                                                iniziato il novembre 14,035, poi la curva di luce continua
                                                aumentando fino a raggiungere un massimo piatta e inizia
                                                a diminuire. La massima ha avuto luogo nel novembre
                                                25.25 

                                                Se esaminiamo le curve di luce di 11 comete precedenti
                                                disintegrato, apprendiamo che la disintegrazione ha avuto luogo
                                                subito dopo il massimo. Quindi questa curva di luce è 
                                                coerente con un evento disintegrazione e coerente
                                                con tutte le precedenti osservazioni. Tuttavia ci manca ancora
                                                conferma visiva.  

                                                Trovo anche le osservazioni STEREO più deboli come 
                                                in funzione del tempo, o è la mia immaginazione?

                                                Si può vedere la curva di luce visibile qui:


                                                Ignacio
                                                oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo




                                                -
                                                Faccio del mio meglio correzione subito dopo ho colpito "Invia".


                                              • CheekyGeek
                                                ... From the spaceweather.com home page: Astronomer Karl Battams of NASA s Comet ISON Observing Campaign urges readers to remember the following: Comet ISON
                                                Message 23 of 23 , Nov 27, 2013
                                                • 0 Attachment
                                                  > I know that there have been quite a number of sungrazers seen at close approach now, but have
                                                  > we ever gotten this kind of look at a "pristine" comet of this size in this kind of approach?

                                                  From the spaceweather.com home page:
                                                  Astronomer Karl Battams of NASA's Comet ISON Observing Campaign urges
                                                  readers to remember the following: "Comet ISON is a dynamically new
                                                  sungrazing comet, fresh in from the Oort Cloud, and the last time we
                                                  saw an object like this was never! Furthermore, a sungrazing comet
                                                  just days from perihelion has never been studied in this kind of
                                                  detail - we're breaking new ground! When we factor in your standard
                                                  'comets are unpredictable' disclaimer, what we have is a huge recipe
                                                  for the unknown."

                                                  --- end of quote--

                                                  Darren Addy
                                                  Kearney, Nebraska


                                                  --
                                                  I do my best proofreading right after I hit "Send".
                                                Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.