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RE: [climatechangedebate] Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011

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  • C. Bruce Richardson Jr.
    Bob: from your link to: http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677 .it seems little doubt that recent summer air temperatures for Greenland ice are the highest
    Message 1 of 30 , Aug 7, 2012
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      Bob: from your link to:   http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677


      “…it seems little doubt that recent summer air temperatures for Greenland ice are the highest in at least 172 years.”

      “It is further reasonable to think that Greenland probably hasn’t been as warm in summer than since the time the Norse colonized Greenland beginning in 982.”

      I think that it is reasonable to assume that it is warmer now than it was during the Little Ice Age (LIA).  I think that it is also reasonable to assume that the last time that Greenland was as warm or warmer than it is now was during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). The MWP is generally thought to have made the Norse settlements in Greenland possible. I think that it is reasonable to assume that it was warmer during the MWP—at least in Greenland —because there is still land that the Norse were cultivating remains frozen now. Also there are graves that are still in permafrost. I have never attempted to dig a grave in permafrost but I doubt that the Norse would have been able to do it. I found the image below at: 

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permafrost


      While these two men dig in Alaska to
      study
      soil, the hard permafrost requires
       the use of a jackhammer



      There should be aerosol information from the Greenland ice cores. But I haven’t been able to find it so far. I think that you pointed me to an Aerosol data site but I saved it somewhere but so far I cannot find it. He does mention the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as a possible cause of the cool period. That is a reasonable hypothesis in my opinion. The AMO is, as I understand it, the North Atlantic (NA) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) detrended. I suspect that he was referring to that rather than the AMO. This is what the NA SST looks like.



      Below is his Greenland temperature data. The black line is a linear regression from 1900/01 thru 2012/06. Unfortunately, the time spans do not match up. For the period since 1900, there does appear to be a pretty good correlation. Of course, we cannot assume causation because there is a correlation.


      “Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century baseline.”

      That wouldn’t be a surprise. We are at the warm end of a long-term warming trend.  The temperature base line would fall somewhere between the warm end and the cool end of that 1901-2000 baseline. It would probably be considerably below current temperatures. 

      Bruce

      C. Bruce Richardson Jr.
      Houston , TX




      From: climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com [mailto:climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Robert Maginnis
      Sent: Tuesday, August 07, 2012 11:15 AM
      To: climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com
      Subject: [climatechangedebate] Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011

       

       

       

       

       

      Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011

      Developing a new manuscript (Box et al. submitted), I’ve managed to update the Box et al. (2009) near-surface air temperature reconstruction and am struck after incorporating 4 more years, it seems little doubt that recent summer air temperatures for Greenland ice are the highest in at least 172 years. Summer temperatures in the late 2000s are roughly 0.5 C warmer than in the 1930s and even warmer than at any time since at least 1840s. Because the reconstruction captures the end of the Little Ice Age, it is further reasonable to think that Greenland probably hasn’t been as warm in summer than since the time the Norse colonized Greenland beginning in 982. Implications for the recent warmth are of course grabbing headlines. I’ll be adding 2012 data soon.

      Temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 average.

      While earlier studies (e.g. Chylek et al. 2006) ascribe significance to the fact that 1920s temperature increases were greater in magnitude since those after the early 1990s, this point lacks relevance because 1.) the 1920s trend was measured from the depth of an (unexplained) decadal cool period while the recent trend, i.e., measured beginning in 1994, after the 1991-1993 Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cooling and especially because 2.) the recent summer temperatures are ~0.5 C higher in absolute magnitude than those in the 20th century.

       

       20th Century cooling period

      During the ~63 year period (1930 to 1992) cooling prevailed that can be attributed partially to an increases in atmospheric aerosols that reduce surface insolation. Liepert et al (2002) estimated that there a global reduction of about 4% in solar radiation reaching the ground between 1961 and 1990. West Greenland is a focus of sulfate aerosol-induced cooling (Rozanov et al. 2002, Box et al. 2009). Cold episodes in 1983-84 and 1991-92 enhance this cooling trend and are caused by major volcanic eruptions (Box, 2002; Box et al. 2009). The cooling phase has also been attributed to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (e.g. Schesinger et al. 1994). Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate cooling. The post-1994 warming, is attributable to: 1.) a growing absence of sulfate cooling because there has not been a major volcanic eruption since at Mount Pintubo in 1991; 2) a reversal of the global dimming trend (Wild et al. 2009); and 3) ongoing and intensifying anthropogenic global warming (AWG) owing to a dominance of enhanced greenhouse effect despite various anthropogenic cooling factors such as aerosols and contrails (IPCC, 2007). Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century baseline............

       

      bob

    • Dick Kahle
      Bob, It would appear the last year (apparently 2011although the count on the graph is hard to follow) is higher than three previous highest years by about 0.2
      Message 2 of 30 , Aug 7, 2012
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        Bob,

        It would appear the last year (apparently 2011although the count on the graph is hard to follow) is higher than three previous highest years by about 0.2 C, the earliest of those three years about 1931. Thus maybe a 0.2 C increase in 80 years based on one year.

        It seems many of the other statements are not supported.

        For example, he discounts the sudden rise in temperature in the 1920's because he can't explain the cooling before it. If he doesn't believe in his own data, why is he putting together this study?

        Dr. Box says, "Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate cooling." The AMO and the NAO are verified through both paleo records of thousands of year and actually climate models can reproduce the oscillation to some degree. So I really don't know what his statement means.

        He fails to discuss the potential role of the sun.

        Dick

        "Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century baseline............"



        On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 11:15 AM, Robert Maginnis <bobmagi@...> wrote:
         

         
         
         

        Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011

        Developing a new manuscript (Box et al. submitted), I’ve managed to update the Box et al. (2009) near-surface air temperature reconstruction and am struck after incorporating 4 more years, it seems little doubt that recent summer air temperatures for Greenland ice are the highest in at least 172 years. Summer temperatures in the late 2000s are roughly 0.5 C warmer than in the 1930s and even warmer than at any time since at least 1840s. Because the reconstruction captures the end of the Little Ice Age, it is further reasonable to think that Greenland probably hasn’t been as warm in summer than since the time the Norse colonized Greenland beginning in 982. Implications for the recent warmth are of course grabbing headlines. I’ll be adding 2012 data soon.

        Temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 average.

        While earlier studies (e.g. Chylek et al. 2006) ascribe significance to the fact that 1920s temperature increases were greater in magnitude since those after the early 1990s, this point lacks relevance because 1.) the 1920s trend was measured from the depth of an (unexplained) decadal cool period while the recent trend, i.e., measured beginning in 1994, after the 1991-1993 Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cooling and especially because 2.) the recent summer temperatures are ~0.5 C higher in absolute magnitude than those in the 20th century.
         
         20th Century cooling period
        During the ~63 year period (1930 to 1992) cooling prevailed that can be attributed partially to an increases in atmospheric aerosols that reduce surface insolation. Liepert et al (2002) estimated that there a global reduction of about 4% in solar radiation reaching the ground between 1961 and 1990. West Greenland is a focus of sulfate aerosol-induced cooling (Rozanov et al. 2002, Box et al. 2009). Cold episodes in 1983-84 and 1991-92 enhance this cooling trend and are caused by major volcanic eruptions (Box, 2002; Box et al. 2009). The cooling phase has also been attributed to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (e.g. Schesinger et al. 1994). Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate cooling. The post-1994 warming, is attributable to: 1.) a growing absence of sulfate cooling because there has not been a major volcanic eruption since at Mount Pintubo in 1991; 2) a reversal of the global dimming trend (Wild et al. 2009); and 3) ongoing and intensifying anthropogenic global warming (AWG) owing to a dominance of enhanced greenhouse effect despite various anthropogenic cooling factors such as aerosols and contrails (IPCC, 2007). Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century baseline............
         
        bob


      • Albert Masetti
        Bob, Well, South Africa just had snow ... so it must be global cooling:
        Message 3 of 30 , Aug 8, 2012
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          Bob,

          Well, South Africa just had snow ... so it must be global cooling:


          - Al

          On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 10:52 PM, Dick Kahle <dkahle@...> wrote:
           

          Bob,

          It would appear the last year (apparently 2011although the count on the graph is hard to follow) is higher than three previous highest years by about 0.2 C, the earliest of those three years about 1931. Thus maybe a 0.2 C increase in 80 years based on one year.

          It seems many of the other statements are not supported.

          For example, he discounts the sudden rise in temperature in the 1920's because he can't explain the cooling before it. If he doesn't believe in his own data, why is he putting together this study?

          Dr. Box says, "Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate cooling." The AMO and the NAO are verified through both paleo records of thousands of year and actually climate models can reproduce the oscillation to some degree. So I really don't know what his statement means.

          He fails to discuss the potential role of the sun.

          Dick



          "Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century baseline............"



          On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 11:15 AM, Robert Maginnis <bobmagi@...> wrote:
           

           
           
           

          Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011

          Developing a new manuscript (Box et al. submitted), I’ve managed to update the Box et al. (2009) near-surface air temperature reconstruction and am struck after incorporating 4 more years, it seems little doubt that recent summer air temperatures for Greenland ice are the highest in at least 172 years. Summer temperatures in the late 2000s are roughly 0.5 C warmer than in the 1930s and even warmer than at any time since at least 1840s. Because the reconstruction captures the end of the Little Ice Age, it is further reasonable to think that Greenland probably hasn’t been as warm in summer than since the time the Norse colonized Greenland beginning in 982. Implications for the recent warmth are of course grabbing headlines. I’ll be adding 2012 data soon.

          Temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 average.

          While earlier studies (e.g. Chylek et al. 2006) ascribe significance to the fact that 1920s temperature increases were greater in magnitude since those after the early 1990s, this point lacks relevance because 1.) the 1920s trend was measured from the depth of an (unexplained) decadal cool period while the recent trend, i.e., measured beginning in 1994, after the 1991-1993 Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cooling and especially because 2.) the recent summer temperatures are ~0.5 C higher in absolute magnitude than those in the 20th century.
           
           20th Century cooling period
          During the ~63 year period (1930 to 1992) cooling prevailed that can be attributed partially to an increases in atmospheric aerosols that reduce surface insolation. Liepert et al (2002) estimated that there a global reduction of about 4% in solar radiation reaching the ground between 1961 and 1990. West Greenland is a focus of sulfate aerosol-induced cooling (Rozanov et al. 2002, Box et al. 2009). Cold episodes in 1983-84 and 1991-92 enhance this cooling trend and are caused by major volcanic eruptions (Box, 2002; Box et al. 2009). The cooling phase has also been attributed to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (e.g. Schesinger et al. 1994). Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate cooling. The post-1994 warming, is attributable to: 1.) a growing absence of sulfate cooling because there has not been a major volcanic eruption since at Mount Pintubo in 1991; 2) a reversal of the global dimming trend (Wild et al. 2009); and 3) ongoing and intensifying anthropogenic global warming (AWG) owing to a dominance of enhanced greenhouse effect despite various anthropogenic cooling factors such as aerosols and contrails (IPCC, 2007). Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century baseline............
           
          bob



        • Robert Maginnis
          Al,   It is winter in the Southern Hemisphere, and your story says it has snowed before in SA, even if a rare event.    South African Weather Service
          Message 4 of 30 , Aug 8, 2012
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            Al,
             
            It is winter in the Southern Hemisphere, and your story says it has snowed before in SA, even if a rare event. 
             
            "South African Weather Service records show it has snowed in Johannesburg on only 22 other days in the last 103 years. The last snow fell there in June 2007.

            In Pretoria, the country's capital, flurries filled the sky during a visit by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. It was the first snowfall there since 1968, the weather service said."

             

            Meanwhile:

             

            Here are some data points released by the Northeast Regional Climate Center:
            • It was the seventh warmest July since 1895 in the Northeast. The average temperature was 72.8 degrees, which was 2.9 degrees above normal.
            • Each of the 12 states in the region averaged warmer than normal, with departures that ranged from +1.5 degrees in Rhode Island to +4 degrees in Delaware.
            • It was the second warmest July since 1895 in Delaware and the third warmest in Maryland.
            • All 12 states in the region ranked within the top 24 warmest since record keeping began in 1895.
            • With a regional precipitation total of 3.7 inches, the Northeast averaged 87 percent of normal in July. The year-to-date totals averaged 88 percent of normal in the Northeast.
            • Three states, Pennsylvania, (107 percent), Rhode Island (116 percent) and West Virginia (125 percent) had totals that were wetter than normal.
            • It was the driest January through June since 1895 in Delaware and the fifth driest in Maryland.
            This isn’t just unique to the Northeastern region. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the rest of the U.S. also saw its warmest period on record from June of 2011 to June of 2012 — with each of the consecutive months ranking among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time since record keeping began. NOAA estimates that the odds of this occurring randomly are 1 in 1,594,323.
            Meteorologist Dr. Jeff Masters put those odds into context: “Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD–assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years. These are ridiculously long odds, and it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 13 months could have occurred without a warming climate.”
            Throughout the U.S. in 2012, more than 27,042 high temperature records were broken or tied as of August 5th.
            Meanwhile, 64 percent of the U.S. is facing drought conditions.
             
            bob

            --- On Wed, 8/8/12, Albert Masetti <almasetti@...> wrote:

            From: Albert Masetti <almasetti@...>
            Subject: Re: [climatechangedebate] Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011
            To: climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com
            Date: Wednesday, August 8, 2012, 4:19 AM

             
            Bob,

            Well, South Africa just had snow ... so it must be global cooling:


            - Al

            On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 10:52 PM, Dick Kahle <dkahle@...> wrote:
             
            Bob,

            It would appear the last year (apparently 2011although the count on the graph is hard to follow) is higher than three previous highest years by about 0.2 C, the earliest of those three years about 1931. Thus maybe a 0.2 C increase in 80 years based on one year.

            It seems many of the other statements are not supported.

            For example, he discounts the sudden rise in temperature in the 1920's because he can't explain the cooling before it. If he doesn't believe in his own data, why is he putting together this study?

            Dr. Box says, "Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate cooling." The AMO and the NAO are verified through both paleo records of thousands of year and actually climate models can reproduce the oscillation to some degree. So I really don't know what his statement means.

            He fails to discuss the potential role of the sun.

            Dick


            "Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century baseline............"



            On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 11:15 AM, Robert Maginnis <bobmagi@...> wrote:
             
             
             
             

            Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011

            Developing a new manuscript (Box et al. submitted), I’ve managed to update the Box et al. (2009) near-surface air temperature reconstruction and am struck after incorporating 4 more years, it seems little doubt that recent summer air temperatures for Greenland ice are the highest in at least 172 years. Summer temperatures in the late 2000s are roughly 0.5 C warmer than in the 1930s and even warmer than at any time since at least 1840s. Because the reconstruction captures the end of the Little Ice Age, it is further reasonable to think that Greenland probably hasn’t been as warm in summer than since the time the Norse colonized Greenland beginning in 982. Implications for the recent warmth are of course grabbing headlines. I’ll be adding 2012 data soon.
            Temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 average.
            While earlier studies (e.g. Chylek et al. 2006) ascribe significance to the fact that 1920s temperature increases were greater in magnitude since those after the early 1990s, this point lacks relevance because 1.) the 1920s trend was measured from the depth of an (unexplained) decadal cool period while the recent trend, i.e., measured beginning in 1994, after the 1991-1993 Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cooling and especially because 2.) the recent summer temperatures are ~0.5 C higher in absolute magnitude than those in the 20th century.
             
             20th Century cooling period
            During the ~63 year period (1930 to 1992) cooling prevailed that can be attributed partially to an increases in atmospheric aerosols that reduce surface insolation. Liepert et al (2002) estimated that there a global reduction of about 4% in solar radiation reaching the ground between 1961 and 1990. West Greenland is a focus of sulfate aerosol-induced cooling (Rozanov et al. 2002, Box et al. 2009). Cold episodes in 1983-84 and 1991-92 enhance this cooling trend and are caused by major volcanic eruptions (Box, 2002; Box et al. 2009). The cooling phase has also been attributed to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (e.g. Schesinger et al. 1994). Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate cooling. The post-1994 warming, is attributable to: 1.) a growing absence of sulfate cooling because there has not been a major volcanic eruption since at Mount Pintubo in 1991; 2) a reversal of the global dimming trend (Wild et al. 2009); and 3) ongoing and intensifying anthropogenic global warming (AWG) owing to a dominance of enhanced greenhouse effect despite various anthropogenic cooling factors such as aerosols and contrails (IPCC, 2007). Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century baseline............
             
            bob


          • brian_questioning
            As long as the Global Warming Summit is only held in the summertime in that part of the world, it can snow all it wants there.
            Message 5 of 30 , Aug 8, 2012
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              As long as the Global Warming Summit is only held in the summertime in that part of the world, it can snow all it wants there.

              --- In climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com, Albert Masetti <almasetti@...> wrote:
              >
              > Bob,
              >
              > Well, South Africa just had snow ... so it must be global cooling:
              >
              > http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AF_SOUTH_AFRICA_SNOW?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-08-07-17-06-15
              >
              > - Al
              >
              > On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 10:52 PM, Dick Kahle <dkahle@...> wrote:
              >
              > > **
              > >
              > >
              > > Bob,
              > >
              > > It would appear the last year (apparently 2011although the count on the
              > > graph is hard to follow) is higher than three previous highest years by
              > > about 0.2 C, the earliest of those three years about 1931. Thus maybe a 0.2
              > > C increase in 80 years based on one year.
              > >
              > > It seems many of the other statements are not supported.
              > >
              > > For example, he discounts the sudden rise in temperature in the 1920's
              > > because he can't explain the cooling before it. If he doesn't believe in
              > > his own data, why is he putting together this study?
              > >
              > > Dr. Box says, "Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent
              > > harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate
              > > cooling." The AMO and the NAO are verified through both paleo records of
              > > thousands of year and actually climate models can reproduce the oscillation
              > > to some degree. So I really don't know what his statement means.
              > >
              > > He fails to discuss the potential role of the sun.
              > >
              > > Dick
              > >
              > >
              > > "Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and
              > > south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century
              > > baseline............"
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > > On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 11:15 AM, Robert Maginnis <bobmagi@...> wrote:
              > >
              > >> **
              > >>
              > >>
              > >>
              > >>
              > >>
              > >> Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011
              > >> Developing a new manuscript (Box et al. submitted), I've managed to
              > >> update the Box et al. (2009) near-surface air temperature reconstruction
              > >> and am struck after incorporating 4 more years, it seems little doubt that
              > >> recent summer air temperatures for Greenland ice are the highest in at
              > >> least 172 years. Summer temperatures in the late 2000s are roughly 0.5 C
              > >> warmer than in the 1930s and even warmer than at any time since at least
              > >> 1840s. Because the reconstruction captures the end of the Little Ice Age,
              > >> it is further reasonable to think that Greenland probably hasn't been as
              > >> warm in summer than since the time the Norse colonized Greenland beginning
              > >> in 982. Implications for the recent warmth are of course grabbing
              > >> headlines. I'll be adding 2012 data soon.
              > >>
              > >> Temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 average.
              > >> While earlier studies (e.g. Chylek et al. 2006) ascribe significance to
              > >> the fact that 1920s temperature increases were greater in magnitude since
              > >> those after the early 1990s, this point lacks relevance because 1.) the
              > >> 1920s trend was measured from the depth of an (unexplained) decadal cool
              > >> period while the recent trend, i.e., measured beginning in 1994, *after* the
              > >> 1991-1993 Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cooling and especially because 2.) the
              > >> recent summer temperatures are ~0.5 C *higher in absolute magnitude* than
              > >> those in the 20th century.
              > >>
              > >> *20th Century cooling period*
              > >> During the ~63 year period (1930 to 1992) cooling prevailed that can be
              > >> attributed partially to an increases in atmospheric aerosols that reduce
              > >> surface insolation. Liepert et al (2002) estimated that there a global
              > >> reduction of about 4% in solar radiation reaching the ground between 1961
              > >> and 1990. West Greenland is a focus of sulfate aerosol-induced cooling
              > >> (Rozanov et al. 2002, Box et al. 2009). Cold episodes in 1983-84 and
              > >> 1991-92 enhance this cooling trend and are caused by major volcanic
              > >> eruptions (Box, 2002; Box et al. 2009). The cooling phase has also been
              > >> attributed to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (e.g. Schesinger
              > >> et al. 1994). Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent
              > >> harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate
              > >> cooling. The post-1994 warming, is attributable to: 1.) a growing absence
              > >> of sulfate cooling because there has not been a major volcanic eruption
              > >> since at Mount Pintubo in 1991; 2) a reversal of the global dimming trend
              > >> (Wild et al. 2009); and 3) ongoing and intensifying anthropogenic global
              > >> warming (AWG) owing to a dominance of enhanced greenhouse effect despite
              > >> various anthropogenic cooling factors such as aerosols and contrails (IPCC,
              > >> 2007). Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west
              > >> and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000
              > >> century baseline............
              > >> http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677
              > >>
              > >> bob
              > >>
              > >>
              > >
              > >
              >
            • brian_questioning
              He fails to discuss the potential role of the sun. It s not a failing. It s intentional. Brian
              Message 6 of 30 , Aug 8, 2012
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                "He fails to discuss the potential role of the sun."

                It's not a failing. It's intentional.

                Brian

                --- In climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com, Dick Kahle <dkahle@...> wrote:
                >
                > Bob,
                >
                > It would appear the last year (apparently 2011although the count on the
                > graph is hard to follow) is higher than three previous highest years by
                > about 0.2 C, the earliest of those three years about 1931. Thus maybe a 0.2
                > C increase in 80 years based on one year.
                >
                > It seems many of the other statements are not supported.
                >
                > For example, he discounts the sudden rise in temperature in the 1920's
                > because he can't explain the cooling before it. If he doesn't believe in
                > his own data, why is he putting together this study?
                >
                > Dr. Box says, "Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent
                > harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate
                > cooling." The AMO and the NAO are verified through both paleo records of
                > thousands of year and actually climate models can reproduce the oscillation
                > to some degree. So I really don't know what his statement means.
                >
                > He fails to discuss the potential role of the sun.
                >
                > Dick
                >
                > "Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and
                > south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century
                > baseline............"
                >
                >
                >
                > On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 11:15 AM, Robert Maginnis <bobmagi@...> wrote:
                >
                > > **
                > >
                > >
                > >
                > >
                > >
                > > Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011
                > > Developing a new manuscript (Box et al. submitted), I've managed to update
                > > the Box et al. (2009) near-surface air temperature reconstruction and am
                > > struck after incorporating 4 more years, it seems little doubt that recent
                > > summer air temperatures for Greenland ice are the highest in at least 172
                > > years. Summer temperatures in the late 2000s are roughly 0.5 C warmer than
                > > in the 1930s and even warmer than at any time since at least 1840s. Because
                > > the reconstruction captures the end of the Little Ice Age, it is further
                > > reasonable to think that Greenland probably hasn't been as warm in summer
                > > than since the time the Norse colonized Greenland beginning in 982.
                > > Implications for the recent warmth are of course grabbing headlines. I'll
                > > be adding 2012 data soon.
                > >
                > > Temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 average.
                > > While earlier studies (e.g. Chylek et al. 2006) ascribe significance to
                > > the fact that 1920s temperature increases were greater in magnitude since
                > > those after the early 1990s, this point lacks relevance because 1.) the
                > > 1920s trend was measured from the depth of an (unexplained) decadal cool
                > > period while the recent trend, i.e., measured beginning in 1994, *after* the
                > > 1991-1993 Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cooling and especially because 2.) the
                > > recent summer temperatures are ~0.5 C *higher in absolute magnitude* than
                > > those in the 20th century.
                > >
                > > *20th Century cooling period*
                > > During the ~63 year period (1930 to 1992) cooling prevailed that can be
                > > attributed partially to an increases in atmospheric aerosols that reduce
                > > surface insolation. Liepert et al (2002) estimated that there a global
                > > reduction of about 4% in solar radiation reaching the ground between 1961
                > > and 1990. West Greenland is a focus of sulfate aerosol-induced cooling
                > > (Rozanov et al. 2002, Box et al. 2009). Cold episodes in 1983-84 and
                > > 1991-92 enhance this cooling trend and are caused by major volcanic
                > > eruptions (Box, 2002; Box et al. 2009). The cooling phase has also been
                > > attributed to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (e.g. Schesinger
                > > et al. 1994). Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent
                > > harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate
                > > cooling. The post-1994 warming, is attributable to: 1.) a growing absence
                > > of sulfate cooling because there has not been a major volcanic eruption
                > > since at Mount Pintubo in 1991; 2) a reversal of the global dimming trend
                > > (Wild et al. 2009); and 3) ongoing and intensifying anthropogenic global
                > > warming (AWG) owing to a dominance of enhanced greenhouse effect despite
                > > various anthropogenic cooling factors such as aerosols and contrails (IPCC,
                > > 2007). Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west
                > > and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000
                > > century baseline............
                > > http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677
                > >
                > > bob
                > >
                > >
                > >
                >
              • brian_questioning
                From the fact that it s colder than normal in SA and hotter than normal in the US seems to support the possibility that the average temperature of the Earth is
                Message 7 of 30 , Aug 8, 2012
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                  From the fact that it's colder than normal in SA and hotter than normal in the US seems to support the possibility that the average temperature of the Earth is at some equilbrium, perhaps not as a function of CO2 concentrations but as a function of solar input and latent ocean heat.

                  What do the numbers say about the *average* Earth temperatures? What about rainfall? (It has been rainier than normal in the Pacific NW, and last winter has seen record snowfall in Alaska, offsetting the drier than normal climate in the Eastern part of the US.)

                  Brian

                  --- In climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com, Robert Maginnis <bobmagi@...> wrote:
                  >
                  > Al,
                  >  
                  > It is winter in the Southern Hemisphere, and your story says it has snowed before in SA, even if a rare event. 
                  >  
                  > "South African Weather Service records show it has snowed in Johannesburg on only 22 other days in the last 103 years. The last snow fell there in June 2007.
                  > In Pretoria, the country's capital, flurries filled the sky during a visit by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. It was the first snowfall there since 1968, the weather service said."
                  >  
                  > Meanwhile:
                  >  
                  > Here are some data points released by the Northeast Regional Climate Center:
                  >
                  > It was the seventh warmest July since 1895 in the Northeast. The average temperature was 72.8 degrees, which was 2.9 degrees above normal.
                  > Each of the 12 states in the region averaged warmer than normal, with departures that ranged from +1.5 degrees in Rhode Island to +4 degrees in Delaware.
                  > It was the second warmest July since 1895 in Delaware and the third warmest in Maryland.
                  > All 12 states in the region ranked within the top 24 warmest since record keeping began in 1895.
                  > With a regional precipitation total of 3.7 inches, the Northeast averaged 87 percent of normal in July. The year-to-date totals averaged 88 percent of normal in the Northeast.
                  > Three states, Pennsylvania, (107 percent), Rhode Island (116 percent) and West Virginia (125 percent) had totals that were wetter than normal.
                  > It was the driest January through June since 1895 in Delaware and the fifth driest in Maryland.
                  > This isn’t just unique to the Northeastern region. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the rest of the U.S. also saw its warmest period on record from June of 2011 to June of 2012 â€" with each of the consecutive months ranking among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time since record keeping began. NOAA estimates that the odds of this occurring randomly are 1 in 1,594,323.
                  > Meteorologist Dr. Jeff Masters put those odds into context: “Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 ADâ€"assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years. These are ridiculously long odds, and it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 13 months could have occurred without a warming climate.”
                  > Throughout the U.S. in 2012, more than 27,042 high temperature records were broken or tied as of August 5th.
                  > Meanwhile, 64 percent of the U.S. is facing drought conditions.
                  > http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/08/655961/hottest-year-on-record-for-the-northeastern-us/
                  >  
                  > bob
                  >
                  > --- On Wed, 8/8/12, Albert Masetti <almasetti@...> wrote:
                  >
                  >
                  > From: Albert Masetti <almasetti@...>
                  > Subject: Re: [climatechangedebate] Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011
                  > To: climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com
                  > Date: Wednesday, August 8, 2012, 4:19 AM
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >  
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  > Bob,
                  >
                  >
                  > Well, South Africa just had snow ... so it must be global cooling:
                  >
                  >
                  > http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AF_SOUTH_AFRICA_SNOW?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-08-07-17-06-15
                  >
                  >
                  > - Al
                  >
                  >
                  > On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 10:52 PM, Dick Kahle <dkahle@...> wrote:
                  >
                  >
                  >  
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  > Bob,
                  >
                  > It would appear the last year (apparently 2011although the count on the graph is hard to follow) is higher than three previous highest years by about 0.2 C, the earliest of those three years about 1931. Thus maybe a 0.2 C increase in 80 years based on one year.
                  >
                  > It seems many of the other statements are not supported.
                  >
                  > For example, he discounts the sudden rise in temperature in the 1920's because he can't explain the cooling before it. If he doesn't believe in his own data, why is he putting together this study?
                  >
                  > Dr. Box says, "Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate cooling." The AMO and the NAO are verified through both paleo records of thousands of year and actually climate models can reproduce the oscillation to some degree. So I really don't know what his statement means.
                  >
                  > He fails to discuss the potential role of the sun.
                  >
                  > Dick
                  >
                  >
                  > "Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century baseline............"
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  > On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 11:15 AM, Robert Maginnis <bobmagi@...> wrote:
                  >
                  >
                  >  
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >  
                  >  
                  >  
                  > Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011
                  >
                  > Developing a new manuscript (Box et al. submitted), I’ve managed to update the Box et al. (2009) near-surface air temperature reconstruction and am struck after incorporating 4 more years, it seems little doubt that recent summer air temperatures for Greenland ice are the highest in at least 172 years. Summer temperatures in the late 2000s are roughly 0.5 C warmer than in the 1930s and even warmer than at any time since at least 1840s. Because the reconstruction captures the end of the Little Ice Age, it is further reasonable to think that Greenland probably hasn’t been as warm in summer than since the time the Norse colonized Greenland beginning in 982. Implications for the recent warmth are of course grabbing headlines. I’ll be adding 2012 data soon.
                  >
                  > Temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 average.
                  > While earlier studies (e.g. Chylek et al. 2006) ascribe significance to the fact that 1920s temperature increases were greater in magnitude since those after the early 1990s, this point lacks relevance because 1.) the 1920s trend was measured from the depth of an (unexplained) decadal cool period while the recent trend, i.e., measured beginning in 1994, after the 1991-1993 Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cooling and especially because 2.) the recent summer temperatures are ~0.5 C higher in absolute magnitude than those in the 20th century.
                  >  
                  >  20th Century cooling period
                  > During the ~63 year period (1930 to 1992) cooling prevailed that can be attributed partially to an increases in atmospheric aerosols that reduce surface insolation. Liepert et al (2002) estimated that there a global reduction of about 4% in solar radiation reaching the ground between 1961 and 1990. West Greenland is a focus of sulfate aerosol-induced cooling (Rozanov et al. 2002, Box et al. 2009). Cold episodes in 1983-84 and 1991-92 enhance this cooling trend and are caused by major volcanic eruptions (Box, 2002; Box et al. 2009). The cooling phase has also been attributed to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (e.g. Schesinger et al. 1994). Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate cooling. The post-1994 warming, is attributable to: 1.) a growing absence of sulfate cooling because there has not been a major volcanic eruption since at Mount Pintubo in 1991; 2) a
                  > reversal of the global dimming trend (Wild et al. 2009); and 3) ongoing and intensifying anthropogenic global warming (AWG) owing to a dominance of enhanced greenhouse effect despite various anthropogenic cooling factors such as aerosols and contrails (IPCC, 2007). Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century baseline............
                  > http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677
                  >  
                  > bob
                  >
                • C. Bruce Richardson Jr.
                  Bob, that is a weather report. It s interesting but it doesn t tell us much about climate. I can report that the Houston area is not having an usually hot
                  Message 8 of 30 , Aug 8, 2012
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                    Bob, that is a weather report. It’s interesting but it doesn’t tell us much about climate. I can report that the Houston area is not having an usually hot summer. But if I wanted to compare it in the NOAA data to summers in the 1960’s, It would be a lot “hotter” That’s if we consider 0.5 C to be a lot. I have serious doubts about the 0.5 C so I’m only using the NOAA data to illustrate a point.

                    I didn’t want to invest the time in plotting the Northeast Regional Climate Center data. I think that their data are  available. I respect them for that. I doubt that it would hold any surprises. Below is the NOAA data plot since 1900. I took the 20th Century average and plotting that. It is the heavy black line.  As it turns out, it is almost a zero anomaly. Looking at the data, that is about what I would have guessed.




                    Look at the chart. Most of the warming peaks are above the 20th Century average. Most of the cool dips are below. All of the warm peaks since 1977 are above the 20th century average. Why? We are at the warm end of a long-term warming trend—possibly the same warming that ended the Little Ice Age (LIA). The end of the LIA was a good thing.

                    Notice that everything since 2001, including the cool dips, is above the 20th century average. The NOAA data shows a slight cooling trend since 2001 (green plot) and yet we are setting records for warmth. It is easy to set a warm record at the warm end of a long-term warming trend. I suspect that we will see a new NOAA record that adjusts away that cooling trend in the data just as GISS and HadCRUT have done already.

                    I had to laugh when I saw the “statistical” analysis. Is weather really is like throwing dice? Is weather really random? Or is it driven by natural forces such as ocean oscillations, air currents, solar, other unknown factors and possibly anthropogenic forces i.e. “loaded” dice? 

                    If those particular people at NOAA that estimate “that the odds of this occurring randomly are 1 in 1,594,323” then I think that they are doing propaganda rather than science. Of course, I have thought that the nth warmest in x years people at NOAA were propagandists for a good while--taxpayer funded propagandists. 

                    My chart above is a honest chart. I simply plot the data as it is. I don’t change it first and then plot it. Averaging changes the data. Smoothing changes the data. Also, I use gridlines so that we can clearly relate the time to the plot. I scale X axis to be as high a resolution as is practical. Gridlines that are too close together can be a problem too. I don’t object to a reasonable amount of smoothing so long as we can see the underlying data plotted as well and the span and type of smoothing is disclosed. Linear regressions just show what the trend in the data between two points in time is. Arguably, any long-term trend in climate is likely to be composed of multiple shorter-term trends. We can see that below. There has been a long-term warming trend in the NOAA data since 1918 or perhaps 1912. But that trend was composed of two warming periods and two periods of little or no warming. Can you point me to a NOAA chart that shows that? If there is one, I haven’t see it. It is my impression that some of the NOAA people are making a point of not showing that. Probably they don’t want to “confuse” the masses.



                    L
                    inear regressions are influenced by when you start and stop them. What I did above was try to avoid starting or stopped during an El Nino or a La Nina. I also attempted to start at a neutral point either before an El Nino or after a La Nina. I didn’t want an El Nino in one regression and the La Nina that followed in the following regression.

                     

                    Bruce

                    C. Bruce Richardson Jr.

                    Houston, Texas

                     

                     


                    From: climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com [mailto:climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Robert Maginnis
                    Sent: Wednesday, August 08, 2012 9:29 AM
                    To: climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com
                    Subject: Re: [climatechangedebate] Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011

                     

                     

                    Al,

                     

                    It is winter in the Southern Hemisphere, and your story says it has snowed before in SA, even if a rare event. 

                     

                    "South African Weather Service records show it has snowed in Johannesburg on only 22 other days in the last 103 years. The last snow fell there in June 2007.

                    In Pretoria , the country's capital, flurries filled the sky during a visit by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. It was the first snowfall there since 1968, the weather service said."

                     

                    Meanwhile:

                     

                    Here are some data points released by the Northeast Regional Climate Center :

                    • It was the seventh warmest July since 1895 in the Northeast. The average temperature was 72.8 degrees, which was 2.9 degrees above normal.
                    • Each of the 12 states in the region averaged warmer than normal, with departures that ranged from +1.5 degrees in Rhode Island to +4 degrees in Delaware .
                    • It was the second warmest July since 1895 in Delaware and the third warmest in Maryland .
                    • All 12 states in the region ranked within the top 24 warmest since record keeping began in 1895.
                    • With a regional precipitation total of 3.7 inches, the Northeast averaged 87 percent of normal in July. The year-to-date totals averaged 88 percent of normal in the Northeast.
                    • Three states, Pennsylvania , (107 percent), Rhode Island (116 percent) and West Virginia (125 percent) had totals that were wetter than normal.
                    • It was the driest January through June since 1895 in Delaware and the fifth driest in Maryland .

                    This isn’t just unique to the Northeastern region. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the rest of the U.S. also saw its warmest period on record from June of 2011 to June of 2012 — with each of the consecutive months ranking among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time since record keeping began. NOAA estimates that the odds of this occurring randomly are 1 in 1,594,323.

                    Meteorologist Dr. Jeff Masters put those odds into context: “Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD–assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years. These are ridiculously long odds, and it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 13 months could have occurred without a warming climate.”

                    Throughout the U.S. in 2012, more than 27,042 high temperature records were broken or tied as of August 5th.

                    Meanwhile, 64 percent of the U.S. is facing drought conditions.

                     

                    bob

                    --- On Wed, 8/8/12, Albert Masetti <almasetti@...> wrote:


                    From: Albert Masetti <almasetti@...>
                    Subject: Re: [climatechangedebate] Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011
                    To: climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com
                    Date: Wednesday, August 8, 2012, 4:19 AM

                     

                    Bob,

                     

                    Well, South Africa just had snow ... so it must be global cooling:

                     

                     

                    - Al

                    On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 10:52 PM, Dick Kahle <dkahle@...> wrote:

                     

                    Bob,

                    It would appear the last year (apparently 2011although the count on the graph is hard to follow) is higher than three previous highest years by about 0.2 C, the earliest of those three years about 1931. Thus maybe a 0.2 C increase in 80 years based on one year.

                    It seems many of the other statements are not supported.

                    For example, he discounts the sudden rise in temperature in the 1920's because he can't explain the cooling before it. If he doesn't believe in his own data, why is he putting together this study?

                    Dr. Box says, "Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate cooling." The AMO and the NAO are verified through both paleo records of thousands of year and actually climate models can reproduce the oscillation to some degree. So I really don't know what his statement means.

                    He fails to discuss the potential role of the sun.

                    Dick



                    "Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century baseline............"


                    On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 11:15 AM, Robert Maginnis <bobmagi@...> wrote:

                     

                     

                     

                     

                    Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011

                    Developing a new manuscript (Box et al. submitted), I’ve managed to update the Box et al. (2009) near-surface air temperature reconstruction and am struck after incorporating 4 more years, it seems little doubt that recent summer air temperatures for Greenland ice are the highest in at least 172 years. Summer temperatures in the late 2000s are roughly 0.5 C warmer than in the 1930s and even warmer than at any time since at least 1840s. Because the reconstruction captures the end of the Little Ice Age, it is further reasonable to think that Greenland probably hasn’t been as warm in summer than since the time the Norse colonized Greenland beginning in 982. Implications for the recent warmth are of course grabbing headlines. I’ll be adding 2012 data soon.

                    Temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 average.

                    While earlier studies (e.g. Chylek et al. 2006) ascribe significance to the fact that 1920s temperature increases were greater in magnitude since those after the early 1990s, this point lacks relevance because 1.) the 1920s trend was measured from the depth of an (unexplained) decadal cool period while the recent trend, i.e., measured beginning in 1994, after the 1991-1993 Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cooling and especially because 2.) the recent summer temperatures are ~0.5 C higher in absolute magnitude than those in the 20th century.

                     

                     20th Century cooling period

                    During the ~63 year period (1930 to 1992) cooling prevailed that can be attributed partially to an increases in atmospheric aerosols that reduce surface insolation. Liepert et al (2002) estimated that there a global reduction of about 4% in solar radiation reaching the ground between 1961 and 1990. West Greenland is a focus of sulfate aerosol-induced cooling (Rozanov et al. 2002, Box et al. 2009). Cold episodes in 1983-84 and 1991-92 enhance this cooling trend and are caused by major volcanic eruptions (Box, 2002; Box et al. 2009). The cooling phase has also been attributed to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (e.g. Schesinger et al. 1994). Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate cooling. The post-1994 warming, is attributable to: 1.) a growing absence of sulfate cooling because there has not been a major volcanic eruption since at Mount Pintubo in 1991; 2) a reversal of the global dimming trend (Wild et al. 2009); and 3) ongoing and intensifying anthropogenic global warming (AWG) owing to a dominance of enhanced greenhouse effect despite various anthropogenic cooling factors such as aerosols and contrails (IPCC, 2007). Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and south Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century baseline............

                     

                    bob

                     

                     

                  • brian_questioning
                    It would be an interesting analysis to ask: what is the probability that a record is broken given the number of years you go back in recordkeeping? A
                    Message 9 of 30 , Aug 8, 2012
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                      It would be an interesting analysis to ask: what is the probability that a record is broken given the number of years you go back in recordkeeping? A decreasing probability would show quantitatively that "it is easy to set a warm record at the warm end of a long-term warming trend."

                      --- In climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com, "C. Bruce Richardson Jr. " <cbrjr@...> wrote:
                      >
                      > Bob, that is a weather report. It's interesting but it doesn't tell us much
                      > about climate. I can report that the Houston area is not having an usually
                      > hot summer. But if I wanted to compare it in the NOAA data to summers in the
                      > 1960's, It would be a lot "hotter" That's if we consider 0.5 C to be a lot.
                      > I have serious doubts about the 0.5 C so I'm only using the NOAA data to
                      > illustrate a point.
                      >
                      > I didn't want to invest the time in plotting the Northeast Regional Climate
                      > Center data. I think that their data are available. I respect them for
                      > that. I doubt that it would hold any surprises. Below is the NOAA data plot
                      > since 1900. I took the 20th Century average and plotting that. It is the
                      > heavy black line. As it turns out, it is almost a zero anomaly. Looking at
                      > the data, that is about what I would have guessed.
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      > Look at the chart. Most of the warming peaks are above the 20th Century
                      > average. Most of the cool dips are below. All of the warm peaks since 1977
                      > are above the 20th century average. Why? We are at the warm end of a
                      > long-term warming trend-possibly the same warming that ended the Little Ice
                      > Age (LIA). The end of the LIA was a good thing.
                      >
                      > Notice that everything since 2001, including the cool dips, is above the
                      > 20th century average. The NOAA data shows a slight cooling trend since 2001
                      > (green plot) and yet we are setting records for warmth. It is easy to set a
                      > warm record at the warm end of a long-term warming trend. I suspect that we
                      > will see a new NOAA record that adjusts away that cooling trend in the data
                      > just as GISS and HadCRUT have done already.
                      >
                      > I had to laugh when I saw the "statistical" analysis. Is weather really is
                      > like throwing dice? Is weather really random? Or is it driven by natural
                      > forces such as ocean oscillations, air currents, solar, other unknown
                      > factors and possibly anthropogenic forces i.e. "loaded" dice?
                      >
                      > If those particular people at NOAA that estimate "that the odds of this
                      > occurring randomly are 1 in 1,594,323" then I think that they are doing
                      > propaganda rather than science. Of course, I have thought that the nth
                      > warmest in x years people at NOAA were propagandists for a good
                      > while--taxpayer funded propagandists.
                      >
                      > My chart above is a honest chart. I simply plot the data as it is. I don't
                      > change it first and then plot it. Averaging changes the data. Smoothing
                      > changes the data. Also, I use gridlines so that we can clearly relate the
                      > time to the plot. I scale X axis to be as high a resolution as is practical.
                      > Gridlines that are too close together can be a problem too. I don't object
                      > to a reasonable amount of smoothing so long as we can see the underlying
                      > data plotted as well and the span and type of smoothing is disclosed. Linear
                      > regressions just show what the trend in the data between two points in time
                      > is. Arguably, any long-term trend in climate is likely to be composed of
                      > multiple shorter-term trends. We can see that below. There has been a
                      > long-term warming trend in the NOAA data since 1918 or perhaps 1912. But
                      > that trend was composed of two warming periods and two periods of little or
                      > no warming. Can you point me to a NOAA chart that shows that? If there is
                      > one, I haven't see it. It is my impression that some of the NOAA people are
                      > making a point of not showing that. Probably they don't want to "confuse"
                      > the masses.
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      > Linear regressions are influenced by when you start and stop them. What I
                      > did above was try to avoid starting or stopped during an El Nino or a La
                      > Nina. I also attempted to start at a neutral point either before an El Nino
                      > or after a La Nina. I didn't want an El Nino in one regression and the La
                      > Nina that followed in the following regression.
                      >
                      > Bruce
                      >
                      > C. Bruce Richardson Jr.
                      > Houston, Texas
                      >
                      >
                      > _____
                      >
                      > From: climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com
                      > [mailto:climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Robert Maginnis
                      > Sent: Wednesday, August 08, 2012 9:29 AM
                      > To: climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com
                      > Subject: Re: [climatechangedebate] Greenland ice sheet summer surface air
                      > temperatures: 1840-2011
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      > Al,
                      >
                      > It is winter in the Southern Hemisphere, and your story says it has snowed
                      > before in SA, even if a rare event.
                      >
                      > "South African Weather Service records show it has snowed in Johannesburg on
                      > only 22 other days in the last 103 years. The last snow fell there in June
                      > 2007.
                      > In Pretoria, the country's capital, flurries filled the sky during a visit
                      > by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. It was the first snowfall
                      > there since 1968, the weather service said."
                      >
                      > Meanwhile:
                      >
                      > Here are some data points released
                      > <http://www.newswise.com/articles/forged-for-infamy-2012-the-hottest-year-on
                      > -record-for-northeast> by the Northeast Regional Climate Center:
                      > * It was the seventh warmest July since 1895 in the Northeast. The
                      > average temperature was 72.8 degrees, which was 2.9 degrees above normal.
                      > * Each of the 12 states in the region averaged warmer than normal,
                      > with departures that ranged from +1.5 degrees in Rhode Island to +4 degrees
                      > in Delaware.
                      > * It was the second warmest July since 1895 in Delaware and the third
                      > warmest in Maryland.
                      > * All 12 states in the region ranked within the top 24 warmest since
                      > record keeping began in 1895.
                      > * With a regional precipitation total of 3.7 inches, the Northeast
                      > averaged 87 percent of normal in July. The year-to-date totals averaged 88
                      > percent of normal in the Northeast.
                      > * Three states, Pennsylvania, (107 percent), Rhode Island (116
                      > percent) and West Virginia (125 percent) had totals that were wetter than
                      > normal.
                      > * It was the driest January through June since 1895 in Delaware and
                      > the fifth driest in Maryland.
                      > This isn't just unique to the Northeastern region. According to the National
                      > Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the rest of the U.S. also saw its
                      > warmest period on record
                      > <http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/07/09/513425/us-sees-hottest-12-month
                      > s-and-hottest-half-year-on-record-noaa-calls-record-heat-a-one-in-16-million
                      > -event/> from June of 2011 to June of 2012 - with each of the consecutive
                      > months ranking among the warmest third of their historical distribution for
                      > the first time since record keeping began. NOAA estimates that the odds of
                      > this occurring randomly are 1 in 1,594,323.
                      > Meteorologist Dr. Jeff Masters put
                      > <http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2149>
                      > those odds into context: "Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period
                      > so warm between now and 124,652 AD-assuming the climate is staying the same
                      > as it did during the past 118 years. These are ridiculously long odds, and
                      > it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 13
                      > months could have occurred without a warming climate."
                      > Throughout the U.S. in 2012, more than 27,042 high temperature records were
                      > broken or tied
                      > <http://www.climatecentral.org/news/more-record-highs-during-2012-so-far-tha
                      > n-all-of-2011-14768/> as of August 5th.
                      > Meanwhile, 64 percent of the U.S. <http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/> is
                      > facing drought conditions.
                      > http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/08/655961/hottest-year-on-record-fo
                      > r-the-northeastern-us/
                      >
                      > bob
                      >
                      > --- On Wed, 8/8/12, Albert Masetti <almasetti@...> wrote:
                      >
                      > From: Albert Masetti <almasetti@...>
                      > Subject: Re: [climatechangedebate] Greenland ice sheet summer surface air
                      > temperatures: 1840-2011
                      > To: climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com
                      > Date: Wednesday, August 8, 2012, 4:19 AM
                      >
                      > Bob,
                      >
                      > Well, South Africa just had snow ... so it must be global cooling:
                      >
                      > http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AF_SOUTH_AFRICA_SNOW?SITE=AP
                      > <http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AF_SOUTH_AFRICA_SNOW?SITE=AP&SECTION
                      > =HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-08-07-17-06-15>
                      > &SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-08-07-17-06-15
                      >
                      > - Al
                      > On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 10:52 PM, Dick Kahle <dkahle@...
                      > <http://us.mc1805.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=dkahle@...> > wrote:
                      >
                      > Bob,
                      >
                      > It would appear the last year (apparently 2011although the count on the
                      > graph is hard to follow) is higher than three previous highest years by
                      > about 0.2 C, the earliest of those three years about 1931. Thus maybe a 0.2
                      > C increase in 80 years based on one year.
                      >
                      > It seems many of the other statements are not supported.
                      >
                      > For example, he discounts the sudden rise in temperature in the 1920's
                      > because he can't explain the cooling before it. If he doesn't believe in his
                      > own data, why is he putting together this study?
                      >
                      > Dr. Box says, "Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent
                      > harmonic oscillation or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate
                      > cooling." The AMO and the NAO are verified through both paleo records of
                      > thousands of year and actually climate models can reproduce the oscillation
                      > to some degree. So I really don't know what his statement means.
                      >
                      > He fails to discuss the potential role of the sun.
                      >
                      > Dick
                      >
                      >
                      > "Year 2010 annual surface air temperature observations around west and south
                      > Greenland exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century
                      > baseline............"
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      > On Tue, Aug 7, 2012 at 11:15 AM, Robert Maginnis <bobmagi@...
                      > <http://us.mc1805.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=bobmagi@...> > wrote:
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      > Greenland ice sheet summer surface air temperatures: 1840-2011
                      >
                      > Developing a new manuscript (Box et al. submitted), I've managed to update
                      > the Box et al. (2009) near-surface air temperature reconstruction and am
                      > struck after incorporating 4 more years, it seems little doubt that recent
                      > summer air temperatures for Greenland ice are the highest in at least 172
                      > years. Summer temperatures in the late 2000s are roughly 0.5 C warmer than
                      > in the 1930s and even warmer than at any time since at least 1840s. Because
                      > the reconstruction captures the end of the Little Ice Age, it is further
                      > reasonable to think that Greenland probably hasn't been as warm in summer
                      > than since the time the Norse colonized Greenland beginning in 982.
                      > Implications for the recent warmth are of course grabbing headlines. I'll be
                      > adding 2012 data soon.
                      >
                      > Temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 average.
                      > While earlier studies (e.g. Chylek et al. 2006) ascribe significance to the
                      > fact that 1920s temperature increases were greater in magnitude since those
                      > after the early 1990s, this point lacks relevance because 1.) the 1920s
                      > trend was measured from the depth of an (unexplained) decadal cool period
                      > while the recent trend, i.e., measured beginning in 1994, after the
                      > 1991-1993 Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cooling and especially because 2.) the
                      > recent summer temperatures are ~0.5 C higher in absolute magnitude than
                      > those in the 20th century.
                      >
                      > 20th Century cooling period
                      > During the ~63 year period (1930 to 1992) cooling prevailed that can be
                      > attributed partially to an increases in atmospheric aerosols that reduce
                      > surface insolation. Liepert et al (2002) estimated that there a global
                      > reduction of about 4% in solar radiation reaching the ground between 1961
                      > and 1990. West Greenland is a focus of sulfate aerosol-induced cooling
                      > (Rozanov et al. 2002, Box et al. 2009). Cold episodes in 1983-84 and 1991-92
                      > enhance this cooling trend and are caused by major volcanic eruptions (Box,
                      > 2002; Box et al. 2009). The cooling phase has also been attributed to the
                      > Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (e.g. Schesinger et al. 1994).
                      > Though, it remains unclear whether AMO is a recurrent harmonic oscillation
                      > or just a hiatus of warming caused by sulphate cooling. The post-1994
                      > warming, is attributable to: 1.) a growing absence of sulfate cooling
                      > because there has not been a major volcanic eruption since at Mount Pintubo
                      > in 1991; 2) a reversal of the global dimming trend (Wild et al. 2009); and
                      > 3) ongoing and intensifying anthropogenic global warming (AWG) owing to a
                      > dominance of enhanced greenhouse effect despite various anthropogenic
                      > cooling factors such as aerosols and contrails (IPCC, 2007). Year 2010
                      > annual surface air temperature observations around west and south Greenland
                      > exceeding 3 standard deviations from the 1901-2000 century
                      > baseline............
                      > http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677
                      >
                      > bob
                      >
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