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Polar bear lightning

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  • David Wojick
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/shoshana-zuboff/global-warming-lightning-strikes_b_1471783.html Now we have climate change victums every time something happens.
    Message 1 of 6 , May 2, 2012
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      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/shoshana-zuboff/global-warming-lightning-strikes_b_1471783.html

      Now we have climate change victums every time something happens.

      David

      Sent from my IPad
    • Albert Masetti
      David & All, Due to global warming, lightning is also more attracted nowadays to testosterone then to estrogen. Seriously. FACT! See! ... here:
      Message 2 of 6 , May 2, 2012
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        David & All,

        Due to global warming, lightning is also more attracted nowadays to testosterone then to estrogen.

        Seriously.

        FACT!

        See!  ... here:


        [Thanks for the article, David.   Good find.]

        - Al

        On Wed, May 2, 2012 at 6:17 PM, David Wojick <dwojick@...> wrote:
         

        http://www.huffingtonpost.com/shoshana-zuboff/global-warming-lightning-strikes_b_1471783.html

        Now we have climate change victums every time something happens.

        David

        Sent from my IPad


      • Robert Maginnis
        I m posting this because we recently did this topic.  No answers, but for those interested: Unlocking the secrets to ending an Ice Age — group @ 28 April
        Message 3 of 6 , May 2, 2012
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          I'm posting this because we recently did this topic.  No answers, but for those interested:

          Unlocking the secrets to ending an Ice Age

          — group @ 28 April 2012
          Guest Commentary by Chris Colose, SUNY Albany
           
          It has long been known that characteristics of the Earth’s orbit (its eccentricity, the degree to which it is tilted, and its “wobble”) are slightly altered on timescales of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. Such variations, collectively known as Milankovitch cycles, conspire to pace the timing of glacial-to-interglacial variations.
          Despite the immense explanatory power that this hypothesis has provided, some big questions still remain. For one, the relative roles of eccentricity, obliquity, and precession in controlling glacial onsets/terminations are still debated. While the local, seasonal climate forcing by the Milankovitch cycles is large (of the order 30 W/m2), the net forcing provided by Milankovitch is close to zero in the global mean, requiring other radiative terms (like albedo or greenhouse gas anomalies) to force global-mean temperature change.
          The last deglaciation occurred as a long process between peak glacial conditions (from ~26-20,000 years ago) to the Holocene (~10,000 years ago). Explaining this evolution is not trivial. Variations in the orbit cause opposite changes in the intensity of solar radiation during the summer between the Northern and Southern hemisphere, yet ice age terminations seem synchronous between hemispheres. This could be explained by the role of the greenhouse gas CO2, which varies in abundance in the atmosphere in sync with the glacial cycles and thus acts as a “globaliser” of glacial cycles, as it is well-mixed throughout the atmosphere. However, if CO2 plays this role it is surprising that climatic proxies indicate that Antarctica seems to have warmed prior to the Northern Hemisphere, yet glacial cycles follow in phase with Northern insolation (“INcoming SOLar radiATION”) patterns, raising questions as to what communication mechanism links the hemispheres.
          There have been multiple hypotheses to explain this apparent paradox. One is that the length of the austral summer co-varies with boreal summer intensity, such that local insolation forcings could result in synchronous deglaciations in each hemisphere (Huybers and Denton, 2008). A related idea is that austral spring insolation co-varies with summer duration, and could have forced sea ice retreat in the Southern Ocean and greenhouse gas feedbacks (e.g., Stott et al., 2007).
          Based on transient climate model simulations of glacial-interglacial transitions (rather than “snapshots” of different modeled climate states), Ganopolski and Roche (2009) proposed that in addition to CO2, changes in ocean heat transport provide a critical link between northern and southern hemispheres, able to explain the apparent lag of CO2 behind Antarctic temperature. Recently, an elaborate data analysis published in Nature by Shakun et al., 2012 (pdf) has provided strong support for these model predictions. Shakun et al. attempt to interrogate the spatial and temporal patterns associated with the last deglaciation; in doing so, they analyze global-scale patterns (not just records from Antarctica). This is a formidable task, given the need to synchronize many marine, terrestrial, and ice core records.
          More »
        • famstaff@hal-pc.org
          Robert: Just curious, but could the onset/end of glaciation simply be due to a change in the amount of surface area of the oceans that see direct,
          Message 4 of 6 , May 3, 2012
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            Robert:

            Just curious, but could the onset/end of glaciation simply be due to a
            change in the amount of surface area of the oceans that "see" direct,
            straight-on (as opposed to more oblique) sunlight? Would slight
            changes make that big of a difference?

            Greg



            Quoting Robert Maginnis <bobmagi@...>:

            > I'm posting this because we recently did this topic.  No answers,
            > but for those interested:
            >
            > Unlocking the secrets to ending an Ice Age
            > ? group @ 28 April 2012
            >
            >
            > Guest Commentary by Chris Colose, SUNY Albany
            >  
            > It has long been known that characteristics of the Earth?s orbit
            > (its eccentricity, the degree to which it is tilted, and its
            > ?wobble?) are slightly altered on timescales of tens to hundreds of
            > thousands of years. Such variations, collectively known as
            > Milankovitch cycles, conspire to pace the timing of
            > glacial-to-interglacial variations.
            > Despite the immense explanatory power that this hypothesis has
            > provided, some big questions still remain. For one, the relative
            > roles of eccentricity, obliquity, and precession in controlling
            > glacial onsets/terminations are still debated. While the local,
            > seasonal climate forcing by the Milankovitch cycles is large (of the
            > order 30 W/m2), the net forcing provided by Milankovitch is close to
            > zero in the global mean, requiring other radiative terms (like
            > albedo or greenhouse gas anomalies) to force global-mean temperature
            > change.
            > The last deglaciation occurred as a long process between peak
            > glacial conditions (from ~26-20,000 years ago) to the Holocene
            > (~10,000 years ago). Explaining this evolution is not trivial.
            > Variations in the orbit cause opposite changes in the intensity of
            > solar radiation during the summer between the Northern and Southern
            > hemisphere, yet ice age terminations seem synchronous between
            > hemispheres. This could be explained by the role of the greenhouse
            > gas CO2, which varies in abundance in the atmosphere in sync with
            > the glacial cycles and thus acts as a ?globaliser? of glacial
            > cycles, as it is well-mixed throughout the atmosphere. However, if
            > CO2 plays this role it is surprising that climatic proxies indicate
            > that Antarctica seems to have warmed prior to the Northern
            > Hemisphere, yet glacial cycles follow in phase with Northern
            > insolation (?INcoming SOLar radiATION?) patterns, raising questions
            > as to what communication mechanism links the hemispheres.
            >
            > There have been multiple hypotheses to explain this apparent
            > paradox. One is that the length of the austral summer co-varies with
            > boreal summer intensity, such that local insolation forcings could
            > result in synchronous deglaciations in each hemisphere (Huybers and
            > Denton, 2008). A related idea is that austral spring insolation
            > co-varies with summer duration, and could have forced sea ice
            > retreat in the Southern Ocean and greenhouse gas feedbacks (e.g.,
            > Stott et al., 2007).
            > Based on transient climate model simulations of glacial-interglacial
            > transitions (rather than ?snapshots? of different modeled climate
            > states), Ganopolski and Roche (2009) proposed that in addition to
            > CO2, changes in ocean heat transport provide a critical link between
            > northern and southern hemispheres, able to explain the apparent lag
            > of CO2 behind Antarctic temperature. Recently, an elaborate data
            > analysis published in Nature by Shakun et al., 2012 (pdf) has
            > provided strong support for these model predictions. Shakun et al.
            > attempt to interrogate the spatial and temporal patterns associated
            > with the last deglaciation; in doing so, they analyze global-scale
            > patterns (not just records from Antarctica). This is a formidable
            > task, given the need to synchronize many marine, terrestrial, and
            > ice core records.
            > More »



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          • brian_questioning
            Please excuse my impatience in not rereading this three times. It sure looks like someone is trying being inventive here, and is using the window of
            Message 5 of 6 , May 11, 2012
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              Please excuse my impatience in not rereading this three times. It sure looks like someone is trying being inventive here, and is using the window of opportunity defined by our lack of total understanding of glaciation periods to advance unprovable assertions about the role of CO2.

              Unprovable = not science.

              Brian

              --- In climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com, Robert Maginnis <bobmagi@...> wrote:
              >
              > I'm posting this because we recently did this topic.  No answers, but for those interested:
              >
              > Unlocking the secrets to ending an Ice Age
              > â€" group @ 28 April 2012
              >
              >
              > Guest Commentary by Chris Colose, SUNY Albany
              >  
              > It has long been known that characteristics of the Earth’s orbit (its eccentricity, the degree to which it is tilted, and its “wobble”) are slightly altered on timescales of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. Such variations, collectively known as Milankovitch cycles, conspire to pace the timing of glacial-to-interglacial variations.
              > Despite the immense explanatory power that this hypothesis has provided, some big questions still remain. For one, the relative roles of eccentricity, obliquity, and precession in controlling glacial onsets/terminations are still debated. While the local, seasonal climate forcing by the Milankovitch cycles is large (of the order 30 W/m2), the net forcing provided by Milankovitch is close to zero in the global mean, requiring other radiative terms (like albedo or greenhouse gas anomalies) to force global-mean temperature change.
              > The last deglaciation occurred as a long process between peak glacial conditions (from ~26-20,000 years ago) to the Holocene (~10,000 years ago). Explaining this evolution is not trivial. Variations in the orbit cause opposite changes in the intensity of solar radiation during the summer between the Northern and Southern hemisphere, yet ice age terminations seem synchronous between hemispheres. This could be explained by the role of the greenhouse gas CO2, which varies in abundance in the atmosphere in sync with the glacial cycles and thus acts as a “globaliser” of glacial cycles, as it is well-mixed throughout the atmosphere. However, if CO2 plays this role it is surprising that climatic proxies indicate that Antarctica seems to have warmed prior to the Northern Hemisphere, yet glacial cycles follow in phase with Northern insolation (“INcoming SOLar radiATION”) patterns, raising questions as to what communication mechanism links the hemispheres.
              >
              > There have been multiple hypotheses to explain this apparent paradox. One is that the length of the austral summer co-varies with boreal summer intensity, such that local insolation forcings could result in synchronous deglaciations in each hemisphere (Huybers and Denton, 2008). A related idea is that austral spring insolation co-varies with summer duration, and could have forced sea ice retreat in the Southern Ocean and greenhouse gas feedbacks (e.g., Stott et al., 2007).
              > Based on transient climate model simulations of glacial-interglacial transitions (rather than “snapshots” of different modeled climate states), Ganopolski and Roche (2009) proposed that in addition to CO2, changes in ocean heat transport provide a critical link between northern and southern hemispheres, able to explain the apparent lag of CO2 behind Antarctic temperature. Recently, an elaborate data analysis published in Nature by Shakun et al., 2012 (pdf) has provided strong support for these model predictions. Shakun et al. attempt to interrogate the spatial and temporal patterns associated with the last deglaciation; in doing so, they analyze global-scale patterns (not just records from Antarctica). This is a formidable task, given the need to synchronize many marine, terrestrial, and ice core records.
              > More »
              >
            • Dick Kahle
              Bob, This is an interesting post. It clearly shows the complexity of figuring out what is happening in the transition to interglacial periods. And it does it
              Message 6 of 6 , May 13, 2012
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                Bob,

                This is an interesting post. It clearly shows the complexity of figuring out what is happening in the transition to interglacial periods. And it does it without trying to pound home a CO2 dominant theme, although CO2 is discussed.

                I thought Tamino's comment with insightful; much better than his own blog posts aimed at swaying opinion instead of advancing science.

                Without a thorough read, it's difficult to know where this takes us. More data would be helpful. After a major project at work is done, I will get back to this.

                Thanks,

                Dick

                On Fri, May 11, 2012 at 2:24 PM, brian_questioning <brian_questioning@...> wrote:
                 

                Please excuse my impatience in not rereading this three times. It sure looks like someone is trying being inventive here, and is using the window of opportunity defined by our lack of total understanding of glaciation periods to advance unprovable assertions about the role of CO2.

                Unprovable = not science.

                Brian

                --- In climatechangedebate@yahoogroups.com, Robert Maginnis <bobmagi@...> wrote:
                >
                > I'm posting this because we recently did this topic.  No answers, but for those interested:


                >
                > Unlocking the secrets to ending an Ice Age
                > â€" group @ 28 April 2012
                >
                >
                > Guest Commentary by Chris Colose, SUNY Albany
                >  
                > It has long been known that characteristics of the Earth’s orbit (its eccentricity, the degree to which it is tilted, and its “wobble†) are slightly altered on timescales of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. Such variations, collectively known as Milankovitch cycles, conspire to pace the timing of glacial-to-interglacial variations.
                > Despite the immense explanatory power that this hypothesis has provided, some big questions still remain. For one, the relative roles of eccentricity, obliquity, and precession in controlling glacial onsets/terminations are still debated. While the local, seasonal climate forcing by the Milankovitch cycles is large (of the order 30 W/m2), the net forcing provided by Milankovitch is close to zero in the global mean, requiring other radiative terms (like albedo or greenhouse gas anomalies) to force global-mean temperature change.
                > The last deglaciation occurred as a long process between peak glacial conditions (from ~26-20,000 years ago) to the Holocene (~10,000 years ago). Explaining this evolution is not trivial. Variations in the orbit cause opposite changes in the intensity of solar radiation during the summer between the Northern and Southern hemisphere, yet ice age terminations seem synchronous between hemispheres. This could be explained by the role of the greenhouse gas CO2, which varies in abundance in the atmosphere in sync with the glacial cycles and thus acts as a “globaliser†of glacial cycles, as it is well-mixed throughout the atmosphere. However, if CO2 plays this role it is surprising that climatic proxies indicate that Antarctica seems to have warmed prior to the Northern Hemisphere, yet glacial cycles follow in phase with Northern insolation (“INcoming SOLar radiATION†) patterns, raising questions as to what communication mechanism links the hemispheres.

                >
                > There have been multiple hypotheses to explain this apparent paradox. One is that the length of the austral summer co-varies with boreal summer intensity, such that local insolation forcings could result in synchronous deglaciations in each hemisphere (Huybers and Denton, 2008). A related idea is that austral spring insolation co-varies with summer duration, and could have forced sea ice retreat in the Southern Ocean and greenhouse gas feedbacks (e.g., Stott et al., 2007).
                > Based on transient climate model simulations of glacial-interglacial transitions (rather than “snapshots†of different modeled climate states), Ganopolski and Roche (2009) proposed that in addition to CO2, changes in ocean heat transport provide a critical link between northern and southern hemispheres, able to explain the apparent lag of CO2 behind Antarctic temperature. Recently, an elaborate data analysis published in Nature by Shakun et al., 2012 (pdf) has provided strong support for these model predictions. Shakun et al. attempt to interrogate the spatial and temporal patterns associated with the last deglaciation; in doing so, they analyze global-scale patterns (not just records from Antarctica). This is a formidable task, given the need to synchronize many marine, terrestrial, and ice core records.
                > More »
                >


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