Fw: [PublicPopForum] Predictions of world population
Author(s):BOGUE DJTSUI O
Source citation:Public Interest, 1979 Spring;55:99-113.
Abstract:During the 1965-1975 decade, world fertility trends took a significant and essentially unanticipated downward turn. This worldwide decline in only the early phase of what will become an even more precipitous decline in fertility, making it necessary for demographers to review and reexamine their projections for the future. It is predicted that by the year 2025 the world will have nearly achieved zero population growth. This equilibrium will be achieved with a world population of about 7.4 billion. The most recent and reliable information available from a wide variety of sources was used in a comprehensive study of world fertility trends in order to estimate the 1968 birthrate of every country and the rate 7 years later, in 1975. Population decline has become the dominant trend in both underdeveloped and developed countries. The worldwide fertility decline is a surprise to many demographers who anticipated no change or very gradual declines in fertility. Demographers should be willing to consider the possibility that a major factor in recent fertility declines in less developed countries has been the massive intervention of organized family planning programs rather than holding onto the doctrine that general economic and social development is the primary cause of fertility decline. And, if this theory is correct, the entire process of predicting the future fertility trends provided here make 3 basic assumptions: 1) that the rate of fertility decline will be directly proportional to the amount of family planning effort expended and to the quality of those efforts; 2) that the rate of fertility decline will be a function of the birthrate itself; and 3) that steady progress will be made in other aspects of social and economic development. The projections are based on the assumption that there will be a continuing and well-financed and well-sponsored program of international family planning assistance to developing countries over the next 25 years.
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