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132Re: stopattwo in one nation

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  • aditmore@juno.com
    Feb 2, 2012
      True, but I consider ultrasound based selective abortion, as early in pregnancy as possible, to be morally preferable to infanticide.  It is replacing infanticide fairly rapidly in both India and China and that is a very good thing.  The more advanced ultrasonic equipment we can get to them, the less moral compromise we will have to make.
      On Thu, 2 Feb 2012 07:23:51 +1000 "Gregary Boyles" <greg@...> writes:

      Not discouraging Indian and Chinese female infanticide would help. If the ratio of males to females could be significantly increased in those countries then it would put downward pressure on their populations.


      From: aditmore@... [mailto:aditmore@...]
      Sent: Thursday, 2 February 2012 4:48 AM
      To: john.taves@...
      Cc: jenny.goldie@...; sheiladavis05@...; greg@...; mitch.transparentpictures@...; PublicPopForum@yahoogroups.com; mark@...; gloomndoom@...; madweld@...; support.au@...; dae.levine@...; robert@...; rboni@...; overpopulation@yahoogroups.com; OverpopulationAwareness@yahoogroups.com; Why_breed@yahoogroups.com; childfreesnip@yahoogroups.com; conscientiousnonprocreators@yahoogroups.com; childfreetown@yahoogroups.com
      Subject: Re: stopattwo in one nation


      Oil is essential to a WORTHWHILE existence, not to mere survival.  Plus several forms of contraception are themselves petroleum based, so oil is essential to a stable population.  So I maintain that unless technology moves beyond that, the sustainable population is based on the natural formation rate of petroleum, which is properly estimated by geologists, though they have yet to adequately produce such estimates.  I again comprehend perfectly, but this time I adamantly disagree.  

              Consistent with the precautionary principle,  The sustainable population estimate should be the MINIMUM, based on current or even some backslide in technology and on the DESIRED, consumerist lifestyle consumption rate, the amount we want to consume.  We can always revise the sustainable population upward AFTER, and IF, we have invented practical and plentiful alternative energy and meat sources.

              So here I disagree with you adamantly.  We should be producing hard estimates and VERY pessimistic ones.  Mine is 5 million, or about 0.08% of the current population.  Since it would be best if we got there within 100 years, the fertility rate goal should be around 0.002.  There are political reasons where such a high goal might be demoralizing, so in the interest of presenting people with baby steps, I often accept higher fertility rate goals, but the real one remains 0.002.  

              We also need to speed up the process by opposing things like mandatory seat belt use and motorcycle helmets.  Encouraging antichoice people to kill each other, like in the Iran-Iraq war or Poland's contribution to the Iraq occupation, helps too, unless rape becomes a big componant of war.



      On Tue, 31 Jan 2012 21:29:28 -0800 John Taves <john.taves@...> writes:

      I don't understand why you would say something like "so the sustainable population level is...." in response to an email that, I thought, made a damn good case that calculating, estimating, or talking about what a sustainable population level is, "is not just a waste of time, it is proof the person doesn't comprehend the issues".

      Oil is not essential for human survival, so your statement that some sustainable level is determined by the natural formation rate of oil doesn't make much sense. Oil is essential to provide for our current numbers. Do you understand the difference? Did you overlook that I attempted to make that concept clear in the following sentence? "we must get our numbers down to the point where we are no longer consuming resources, that are essential to providing for our numbers, faster than they renew". Could it be worded better?


      On Mon, Jan 30, 2012 at 6:01 AM, <aditmore@...> wrote:

      Yes, "that economy and technology is heavily based on oil", so the sustainable population is the natural formation rate of oil times the per capita oil consumption at the desired lifestyle.  What geologists have some trouble estimating is the rate of natural oil formation.



      On Sun, 29 Jan 2012 23:07:39 -0800 John Taves <john.taves@...> writes:

      Thanks for the information about India. I am not neglecting to mention this. I am totally ignorant of it. I will see if I can find information about that.

      I don't have a problem with hard numbers. I have a problem with the concept of calculating the number of people that can be sustained. What would you calculate? Would you calculate the number of people that could be sustained with today's economy and technology? Well that economy and technology is heavily based on oil, so that would be bogus. Would you use the technology/economy we had 500 years ago when we were much closer to not consuming the resources we needed to provide for the population of that time? There's nothing to calculate, just look up the population estimate. Duh. What you need to know is the technology/economy we will have when we are no longer consuming resources, that are essential to providing for our numbers, faster than they renew. If you think you know that, or can estimate that, you are very confused.

      Once there is a significant percent of the population that knows two things: 1) that we must get our numbers down to where we are no longer consuming resources, that are essential to providing for our numbers, faster than they renew, and 2) they know that we must limit our offspring according to the needs of society, then there will be a debate about how fast to decrease our numbers. Which is to say that there will be a debate about what birth rate laws we need. That rate could be determined by figuring out some population level target at some date in the future and doing the math to determine the rate necessary to hit that target. But, that would be idiotic, because again, we don't know what technologies we will have and don't know what the economy will be capable of delivering. So, why not determine a birth rate instead?

      One could argue that since oil will not dry up instantly, it will just get more and more expensive, that we could constantly adjust the birth rate to control the cost of oil. The theory being that as oil gets harder to find and pump out, the price will rise, but if we have reduced demand accordingly, but not making more humans, it could be kept stable. One could argue that at least that rate is the largest birth rate we should allow.

      But debating what birth rate to target is like debating how we should arrange the traffic signals for when we have anti gravity boots. This is all a pointless, because until there is a significant percent of the population that knows those 2 concepts, there is not a goddamn thing that can be done to achieve any birth rate one might estimate.

      Calculating the target population level is not just a waste of time, it is proof the person doesn't comprehend the issues. That number won't shock anyone, because that number will not get any consensus from any number of scientists.


      On Sun, Jan 29, 2012 at 2:01 PM, <aditmore@...> wrote:

      JT below uses the USA as a theoratical example of a nation beginning a
      population education process, but neglects to observe that India is
      already well under way in this regard.  India is less developed and thus
      has a higher per capita income.  But as I understand it, they are doing
      much of what JT is suggesting now and could probably be fairly easily
      convinced to make the fairly small adjustments JT suggests.  JT is right
      that hard numbers are probably best saved for later, when we have better
      scientific data on things like the natural formation rate of petroleum.
      Though I think scientists are already making guesses that are accurate
      enough that they know that the rate is very small and are afraid to say
      for fear of shocking the planet more than lack of certainty.  In other
      words, we already know enough to be pretty shure that the sustainable
      population is far lower than any goal any serious leader is willing to
      make public.
             A historical parallel is Sherman's 1861 casualty estimates for
      the civil war.  They were actually low, but EVERYONE thought they were so
      high that they dismissed him out of hand as a crank.

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