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Re: [carfree_cities] NYTimes.com: Doubts Raised on Saudi Vow for More Oil

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  • Doug Salzmann
    ... Yeah, it s almost certainly just not there. After ten years of following this issue closely, two things stand out: (1) Almost nobody has any idea what
    Message 1 of 2 , Oct 27 9:32 AM
      On Thu, 27 Oct 2005 rickrise@... wrote:

      > He questioned future reliance on Saudi
      > capacity in an article in The New York Times last year and wanted to
      > know from his former colleagues how they reached their estimate of more
      > than 150 billion barrels of extra oil.

      Yeah, it's almost certainly just not there. After ten years of following
      this issue closely, two things stand out: (1) Almost nobody has any idea
      what the "real" reserve numbers are; and (2) Nearly everyone in the
      leadership of producer nations and companies has been shamelessly lying
      for decades.

      It's unarguable that you have to discover oil before you can produce it,
      and it sure doesn't look like we've been finding nearly enough. Peak
      (conventional) Oil is probably here and now -- or so nearly here and now
      as to "make no nevermind."

      As others have pointed out here, recently, there is a lot of other oil
      around, in sand and shale structures, etc. As has also been observed,
      these sources are inherently environmental nightmares. They are also
      inherently expensive, both economically and energetically. Energy cost is
      utterly immune to economic forces.

      Cheap oil is history. And the whole world economy was designed and built
      around cheap oil.

      We have a problem.


      -Doug



      **************************************

      "It is dangerous to be right
      when the government is wrong."

      -Voltaire

      **************************************

      --
      Doug Salzmann
      P.O. Box 1007
      Larkspur, CA 94977
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