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Americans buying less gasoline than a year ago

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  • Andie Miller
    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/25/weekinreview/25hakim.html http://tinyurl.com/8pgmf September 25, 2005 Go Ahead and Drive Less, if You Can By DANNY HAKIM and
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 30, 2005
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      September 25, 2005
      Go Ahead and Drive Less, if You Can
      New York Times


      FOR three straight weeks, Americans have been buying less gasoline than
      they did a year ago. Consumption is dropping at a rate not seen since
      drivers were waiting in gas lines back in the early 1980's. And people
      are turning to mass transit in record numbers in some cities.

      "Normally we'd expect to see a decline of about 400,000 barrels a day
      from August to September just for seasonal reasons, as people stop
      taking vacations," said Doug MacIntyre, a senior oil market analyst for
      the Energy Information Administration.

      But Americans consumed an average of 8.8 million barrels of gas a day
      for the week ending Sept. 16, down from 9.4 million the week before
      Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans and roughly 200,000 fewer barrels
      per day than in mid-September last year.

      "That sort of gives an indication of the price impact," Mr. MacIntyre
      said. "It's a big decline."

      There are any number of reasons - from hurricanes to Middle East
      instability to China's growing thirst for oil - to be pessimistic that
      the era of $1.50-a-gallon gasoline will ever return.

      So how much can Americans cut back on their driving? How much time
      behind the wheel is discretionary?

      Consider that the average American household used its cars and trucks
      for 496 shopping trips in 2001, according to an exhaustive survey of
      160,000 Americans conducted by the Transportation Department. Trips were
      7.02 miles in length, on average, for a total of 3,482 miles per
      household per year. That much driving could almost get you from New York
      to Juneau, Alaska, give or take a few hundred miles.

      That's a lot farther than in 1990, when the average household's shopping
      trips could only get you from New York to Denver. Part of the difference
      stems from the fact that the length of an average shopping trip was 5.1
      miles in 1990. Blame greater suburban sprawl for longer trips these days.

      But the average household also took just 341 shopping trips in 1990,
      back in a pre-latte era when there were just a few dozen Starbucks
      stores and coffee was something to be brewed at home. People are now
      taking more shopping trips than trips to and from work.

      Of course, determining how driving miles are put to use through surveys
      is hardly an exact science. "Not only is it difficult, it's getting more
      difficult, because more people are blending work and pleasure," said
      Doug Hecox, a spokesman for the Federal Highway Administration.

      What seems clear is that American consumers have been unnerved by the
      record-breaking gasoline prices this year. The big gas-guzzling sport
      utility vehicles that have been a Detroit favorite have landed on dealer
      lots with a resounding thud, with steep discounting required to keep
      them selling.

      Some people are considering carpooling, while others are turning to
      public transportation, and in record numbers in some cities, according
      to statistics the American Public Transportation Association will
      release tomorrow.

      The Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority recorded the busiest
      month ever for its Metro system in June, and ridership was up 10 percent
      for the year through August, compared with a normal annual growth rate
      of 2 percent.

      In Texas, traffic on the Trinity Railway Express, which links Dallas to
      Fort Worth, was up 16.4 percent for the first four weekdays of September
      compared with the same period a year earlier. St. Louis reported a 17
      percent increase in mass transit ridership from April to June, compared
      with a year ago. In San Francisco, traffic on the Bay Area Rapid Transit
      system was up almost 4 percent during the first two weeks of September,
      compared with a year ago, and Sept. 15 was the busiest day for the
      system in a year.

      "These are probably the highest growth levels in four decades," said
      William W. Millar, the president of the public transportation
      association, a nonprofit group representing transit authorities across
      the country.

      Drivers can only bend so far, however.

      "People can't change where they live," said Richard Porter, an economics
      professor at the University of Michigan. "They can't change where they
      work, and there aren't any clear substitutes to gas. You can't run your
      car on much else. It's not like switching from oranges to grapefruits."

      But people can squeeze some savings here and there, even if less
      shopping is out of the question. Consider other areas of driving
      inflation. The average household is making 47 trips to doctors and
      dentists each year, up from 18 in 1990, according to the highway
      administration's surveys. The number of trips to school or church has
      risen to 105 per year from 89. Driving vacations have quadrupled from
      two to eight.

      About the only thing Americans have been cutting back on is visiting
      friends and relatives, with such trips down to 129 per year from 149 in
      1990. At 14.89 miles per visit on average, cutting out an additional 20
      would save 300 more miles per year. Don't worry, your mother-in-law
      won't miss you.
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