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Re: [carfree_cities] "Enough oil to last for 500 years"

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  • Jeremy Hubble
    I did not realize that energy was the main limiting factor for oil shale. That does truly destroy his numbers. However, I can see some benefit from it. Even
    Message 1 of 5 , Jun 1, 2004
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      I did not realize that energy was the main limiting factor for oil
      shale. That does truly destroy his numbers. However, I can see some
      benefit from it. Even if energy use does deplete most of the world's
      petroleum, the oil shale can be used as a source of petroleum
      byproducts. And, if the demand for petrol becomes so strong that
      companies seek the shale, we may still win. In order to make it viable,
      oil companies must make it economically viable. Since they are
      producing fuel energy than they are consuming to produce it, they would
      have to make significant investments in renewable resources to do it.
      This may include devoting significant efforts to advancing solar, wind,
      and other power sources. (Though too much of this money will probably be
      spent on the 'hydrogen dream') Big oil could eventually help put itself
      out of business.

      Also, my original note was:
      At 1900 demand the oil supply would last for millennia.
      1900, not 1990. I'm fairly certain that a few 1000 years is fairly
      conservative based on the use in 1900, though I don't have any hard
      numbers on use 104 years ago.

      Jeremy



      "J.H. Crawford" wrote:
      >
      > Jeremy Hubble replied:
      >
      > >The article seems to be fairly accurate. I don't know the details of
      > >the numbers he sited, but they do seem to be relatively in line with
      > >what I have heard before.
      >
      > The number simply don't make any kind of sense at all.
      > Even optimistic sources like IEA and USGS are nowhere
      > near this optimistic.
      >
      > >1) Oil shale reserves have not been tapped because of their cost. A
      > >sustained hire cost of oil would be required before they would be
      > >utilized.
      >
      > The cost that is causing these sources not to be tapped is not
      > the economic cost but the energy cost. It takes more energy
      > to mine and process this stuff than you get from it. It's a
      > non-started in general; there may be a few specific cases where
      > the shale is near the surface and sufficiently concentrated
      > that it can be produced with less energy than it releases, but
      > you can pretty much forget about the oil shales.
      >
      > >2) Yes, tapping all sources of possible oil may provide enough fuel for
      > >500 years at 2000 consumption rates.
      >
      > impossible; even 100 years is extremely unlikely
      >
      > >At 1900 demand the oil supply
      > >would last for millennia.
      >
      > No, oil consumption would have had to quadruple since
      > 1990 for this mythical source to last "millennia" or
      > 2000 years or more . In fact, oil consumption is not up
      > all that much in the past 14 years, certainly far less
      > than a doubling.
      >
      > >He left out the market itself. There is a significant effort to produce
      > >oil, as well as risks involved. Exploration efforts may turn up
      > >nothing.
      >
      > They will turn up more than nothing, but they are unlikely
      > to yield any really big finds; the large fields were mostly
      > found decades ago, and there have only been two reasonably
      > big finds in the past 20 years.
      >
    • J.H. Crawford
      ... Sorry, I mis-read 1900 as 1990. Regards, -- ### -- J.H. Crawford
      Message 2 of 5 , Jun 1, 2004
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        Jeremy Hubble said:

        >Also, my original note was:
        >At 1900 demand the oil supply would last for millennia.
        >1900, not 1990.

        Sorry, I mis-read 1900 as 1990.

        Regards,


        -- ### --

        J.H. Crawford Carfree Cities
        mailbox@... http://www.carfree.com
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