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Re: NYT on "No More Industrial Revoutions"

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  • eriksandblom
    ... I think peak oil is upon us but I m not convinced of the energy=growth equation. I think growth is partly dependent on trust and human interactions such as
    Message 1 of 4 , Nov 19, 2012
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      --- In carfree_cities@yahoogroups.com, Richard Risemberg <rickrise@...> wrote:
      > What do y'all think of Gordon's hypothesis?


      I think peak oil is upon us but I'm not convinced of the energy=growth equation. I think growth is partly dependent on trust and human interactions such as described by Jane Jacobs. A lot of cities are moving to curb car traffic, and the price of suburban real estate appears to be falling. This could be taken as an example of society voluntarily moving away from energy use and toward filling economic growth with other values.

      Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. The past is not always a reliable predictor, which Gordon's graphs clearly illustrate.
    • Debra Efroymson
      It depends how you define growth. If we were looking at growth of well-being rather than consumption, then obviously we could achieve it with less energy use.
      Message 2 of 4 , Nov 19, 2012
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        It depends how you define growth. If we were looking at growth of well-being rather than consumption, then obviously we could achieve it with less energy use. If we wish to continue seeing GDP grow, then we need to keep burning fuel despite the consequences (and likely impossibility). So it would be good if we agreed that we want growth in walking, cycling, public transit, friendliness, strong communities, healthy interactions, fun.......


        ________________________________
        From: eriksandblom <eriksandblom@...>
        To: carfree_cities@yahoogroups.com
        Sent: Monday, November 19, 2012 5:05 PM
        Subject: [carfree_cities] Re: NYT on "No More Industrial Revoutions"


         


        --- In carfree_cities@yahoogroups.com, Richard Risemberg <rickrise@...> wrote:
        > What do y'all think of Gordon's hypothesis?

        I think peak oil is upon us but I'm not convinced of the energy=growth equation. I think growth is partly dependent on trust and human interactions such as described by Jane Jacobs. A lot of cities are moving to curb car traffic, and the price of suburban real estate appears to be falling. This could be taken as an example of society voluntarily moving away from energy use and toward filling economic growth with other values.

        Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. The past is not always a reliable predictor, which Gordon's graphs clearly illustrate.




        [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
      • J.H. Crawford
        Well, if economic growth occurs in non-material sectors (e.g., massage, teaching) then continued GDP growth IS possible. What has to stop and actually reverse
        Message 3 of 4 , Nov 20, 2012
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          Well, if economic growth occurs in non-material sectors (e.g., massage, teaching) then continued GDP growth IS possible. What has to stop and actually reverse is the TOTAL consumption of resources. Just cutting consumption per dollar of GDP is not enough, as this can still lead to increasing resource consumption. We must actually go backwards, and quite some ways. Of course, real recycling (as opposing to bundling plastics and sending them to China for burning) can help considerably.

          I ran into considerable opposition to this viewpoint at the degrowth conference in Venice this past September.

          J.



          >It depends how you define growth. If we were looking at growth of well-being rather than consumption, then obviously we could achieve it with less energy use. If we wish to continue seeing GDP grow, then we need to keep burning fuel despite the consequences (and likely impossibility). So it would be good if we agreed that we want growth in walking, cycling, public transit, friendliness, strong communities, healthy interactions, fun.......
          >
          >________________________________
          >From: eriksandblom <<mailto:eriksandblom%40yahoo.co.uk>eriksandblom@...>
          >To: <mailto:carfree_cities%40yahoogroups.com>carfree_cities@yahoogroups.com
          >Sent: Monday, November 19, 2012 5:05 PM
          >Subject: [carfree_cities] Re: NYT on "No More Industrial Revoutions"
          >
          >

          >
          >--- In <mailto:carfree_cities%40yahoogroups.com>carfree_cities@yahoogroups.com, Richard Risemberg <rickrise@...> wrote:
          >> What do y'all think of Gordon's hypothesis?
          >
          >I think peak oil is upon us but I'm not convinced of the energy=growth equation. I think growth is partly dependent on trust and human interactions such as described by Jane Jacobs. A lot of cities are moving to curb car traffic, and the price of suburban real estate appears to be falling. This could be taken as an example of society voluntarily moving away from energy use and toward filling economic growth with other values.
          >
          >Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. The past is not always a reliable predictor, which Gordon's graphs clearly illustrate.
          >
          >[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
          >
          >



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          J.H. Crawford
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