- I once sat through a lecture that began as a discussion on this power

effect, and the variables that had so far been studied.

One variable that I found fascinating was "innovation", where

researchers used various published measures to calculate the

"innovation" of a city. They found that the power relationship was

above 1, that is, as a city gets bigger, it innovates more than it's

population growth.

A few partial differential equations later, and we were left with a

disturbing model of cities that showed periods of intense innovation

and growth followed by periods of decline and stagnation. As time

(and population) progresses, the innovation becomes more intense and

the boom bust cycles shorter until the time between them disappears.

The article on the subject, along with a nice table of power

relationships, can be found here:

http://www.swarmagents.cn/thesis/download.asp?address=doc/jake_249.pdf&type=1&id=250

-Jon

www.prettygoodcity.com

On Wed, May 20, 2009 at 3:40 PM, J.H. Crawford <mailbox@...> wrote:

>

>

>

> Hi All,

>

> This is reasonably interesting:

>

> http://judson.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/19/math-and-the-city/?pagemode=print

>

> Best,

>

> Joel

>

> NY Times

> The Wild Side

>

> May 19, 2009, 8:26 pm

> Guest Column: Math and the City

>

> Thanks again to Leon Kreitzman for four fascinating articles about

> biological clocks in everything from peonies to people. My sabbatical is

> rapidly drawing to a close but it isn’t over yet! My guest for the next

> three weeks is Steven Strogatz, a professor of applied mathematics at

> Cornell University and the author of “The Calculus of Friendship: What a

> Teacher and a Student Learned about Life While Corresponding about Math,” to

> be published in August.

> Please welcome him.

> Olivia

> By Steven Strogatz

>

> As one of Olivia Judson’s biggest fans, I feel honored and a bit giddy to be

> filling in for her. But maybe I should confess up front that, unlike Olivia

> and the previous guest writers, I’m not a biologist, evolutionary or

> otherwise. In fact, I’m (gasp!) a mathematician.

>

> One of the pleasures of looking at the world through mathematical eyes is

> that you can see certain patterns that would otherwise be hidden. This

> week’s column is about one such pattern. It’s a beautiful law of collective

> organization that links urban studies to zoology. It reveals Manhattan and a

> mouse to be variations on a single structural theme.

>

> The mathematics of cities was launched in 1949 when George Zipf, a linguist

> working at Harvard, reported a striking regularity in the size distribution

> of cities. He noticed that if you tabulate the biggest cities in a given

> country and rank them according to their populations, the largest city is

> always about twice as big as the second largest, and three times as big as

> the third largest, and so on. In other words, the population of a city is,

> to a good approximation, inversely proportional to its rank. Why this should

> be true, no one knows.

>

> Even more amazingly, Zipf’s law has apparently held for at least 100 years.

> Given the different social conditions from country to country, the different

> patterns of migration a century ago and many other variables that you’d

> think would make a difference, the generality of Zipf’s law is astonishing.

>

> Keep in mind that this pattern emerged on its own. No city planner imposed

> it, and no citizens conspired to make it happen. Something is enforcing this

> invisible law, but we’re still in the dark about what that something might

> be.

>

> Many inventive theorists working in disciplines ranging from economics to

> physics have taken a whack at explaining Zipf’s law, but no one has

> completely solved it. Paul Krugman, who has tackled the problem himself,

> wryly noted that “the usual complaint about economic theory is that our

> models are oversimplified that they offer excessively neat views of

> complex, messy reality. [In the case of Zipf’s law] the reverse is true: we

> have complex, messy models, yet reality is startlingly neat and simple.”

>

> After being stuck for a long time, the mathematics of cities has suddenly

> begun to take off again. Around 2006, scientists started discovering new

> mathematical laws about cities that are nearly as stunning as Zipf’s. But

> instead of focusing on the sizes of cities themselves, the new questions

> have to do with how city size affects other things we care about, like the

> amount of infrastructure needed to keep a city going.

>

> For instance, if one city is 10 times as populous as another one, does it

> need 10 times as many gas stations? No. Bigger cities have more gas stations

> than smaller ones (of course), but not nearly in direct proportion to their

> size. The number of gas stations grows only in proportion to the 0.77 power

> of population. The crucial thing is that 0.77 is less than 1. This implies

> that the bigger a city is, the fewer gas stations it has per person. Put

> simply, bigger cities enjoy economies of scale. In this sense, bigger is

> greener.

>

> The same pattern holds for other measures of infrastructure. Whether you

> measure miles of roadway or length of electrical cables, you find that all

> of these also decrease, per person, as city size increases. And all show an

> exponent between 0.7 and 0.9.

>

> Now comes the spooky part. The same law is true for living things. That is,

> if you mentally replace cities by organisms and city size by body weight,

> the mathematical pattern remains the same.

>

> For example, suppose you measure how many calories a mouse burns per day,

> compared to an elephant. Both are mammals, so at the cellular level you

> might expect they shouldn’t be too different. And indeed, when the cells of

> 10 different mammalian species were grown outside their host organisms, in a

> laboratory tissue culture, they all displayed the same metabolic rate. It

> was as if they didn’t know where they’d come from; they had no genetic

> memory of how big their donor was.

>

> But now consider the elephant or the mouse as an intact animal, a

> functioning agglomeration of billions of cells. Then, on a pound for pound

> basis, the cells of an elephant consume far less energy than those of a

> mouse. The relevant law of metabolism, called Kleiber’s law, states that the

> metabolic needs of a mammal grow in proportion to its body weight raised to

> the 0.74 power.

>

> This 0.74 power is uncannily close to the 0.77 observed for the law

> governing gas stations in cities. Coincidence? Maybe, but probably not.

> There are theoretical grounds to expect a power close to 3/4. Geoffrey West

> of the Santa Fe Institute and his colleagues Jim Brown and Brian Enquist

> have argued that a 3/4-power law is exactly what you’d expect if natural

> selection has evolved a transport system for conveying energy and nutrients

> as efficiently and rapidly as possible to all points of a three-dimensional

> body, using a fractal network built from a series of branching tubes

> precisely the architecture seen in the circulatory system and the airways of

> the lung, and not too different from the roads and cables and pipes that

> keep a city alive.

>

> These numerical coincidences seem to be telling us something profound. It

> appears that Aristotle’s metaphor of a city as a living thing is more than

> merely poetic. There may be deep laws of collective organization at work

> here, the same laws for aggregates of people and cells.

>

> The numerology above would seem totally fortuitous if we hadn’t viewed

> cities and organisms through the lens of mathematics. By abstracting away

> nearly all the details involved in powering a mouse or a city, math exposes

> their underlying unity. In that way (and with apologies to Picasso), math is

> the lie that makes us realize the truth.

>

> ----- ### -----

> J.H. Crawford Carfree Cities

> mailbox@... http://www.carfree.com

>

> - --- In carfree_cities@yahoogroups.com, "J.H. Crawford" <mailbox@...> wrote:
>

Fascinating research. I'm interested in some follow-up research -- what is the effect of geographic area on resource efficiency? The population of Northeast Ohio/Greater Cleveland area has been fairly constant since the 1950s, but that population is now spread over a much larger area. What does math tell us about that process and the efficiency of our allocation of resources?

>

> For instance, if one city is 10 times as populous as another one, does it need 10 times as many gas stations? No. Bigger cities have more gas stations than smaller ones (of course), but not nearly in direct proportion to their size. The number of gas stations grows only in proportion to the 0.77 power of population. The crucial thing is that 0.77 is less than 1. This implies that the bigger a city is, the fewer gas stations it has per person. Put simply, bigger cities enjoy economies of scale. In this sense, bigger is greener.

>

> The same pattern holds for other measures of infrastructure. Whether you measure miles of roadway or length of electrical cables, you find that all of these also decrease, per person, as city size increases. And all show an exponent between 0.7 and 0.9.

>

>

And what does math tell us about the evolution of other rust belt cities, for example, many of which had large populations that then sprawled outward and ultimately collapsed (Detroit's core) and stagnated or declined (the greater Detroit area) population-wise vs. the cities that have grown in population and sprawled simultaneously -- Atlanta, Phoenix, etc.

Somewhere in there maybe some brilliant mathematicians will take a look at the effect of the mass-adoption of the automobile on city design. I suspect that we will find mathematical support for the increased efficiency of a carfree city.