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7895Re: [carfree_cities] China, India drive record car sales

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  • adolfo restrepo
    Dec 31, 2004
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      Hi all,

      Any figures on the related pressures on oil supplies
      from car industry. Example China today has exerted
      considerable global pressure on cement market cause of
      builidng boom.

      Second question, is car culture in china and india
      stimulating sprawl, outside of shanghai, or are dense
      growth patterns the norm?

      Also, how are petro prices in those countries
      structured, are they used to subsidize social and
      infrastruture policies?

      Is car growth around the world, confirming the fact
      that U.S. foreign policy of physically dominating oil
      regions a failure on all counts?

      happy new year,

      gustavo




      --- "Lanyon, Ryan" <ryan.lanyon@...> wrote:

      >
      >
      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20041231.wxauto1231/BNSto
      > ry/Business/
      >
      > China, India drive record car sales
      >
      > Developing countries shift into high gear, pushing
      > global numbers to 44.5
      > million
      >
      > By JOHN SAUNDERS
      > From Friday's Globe and Mail
      >
      > More cars were sold on the planet in 2004 than ever
      > before as would-be
      > motorists in countries such as China and India began
      > to drive global auto
      > industry growth, a Bank of Nova Scotia economist
      > says.
      >
      > Developing countries shift into high gear, pushing
      > global numbers to 44.5
      > million
      >
      > In a report issued yesterday, Carlos Gomes estimates
      > that worldwide sales
      > hit 44.45 million vehicles this year, about 3 per
      > cent above the 2003 level,
      > despite flattening sales in North America and
      > Western Europe.
      >
      > China became the fourth-largest market, passing
      > France and Italy, and will
      > probably be No. 2 -- ahead of Germany and Japan and
      > behind only the United
      > States -- by the end of the decade, he says.
      >
      > After a 71-per-cent growth spurt in 2003, Chinese
      > auto sales probably rose
      > another 15 per cent or more in 2004 to about 2.3
      > million vehicles.
      >
      > India overtook China as the fastest-growing market,
      > with an estimated
      > 29-per-cent jump to about 900,000, the report says.
      >
      > In an interview, Mr. Gomes said that while markets
      > in car-clogged developed
      > countries remain big, they are no longer engines of
      > growth.
      >
      > "It is very much the developing world that's going
      > to lead the auto industry
      > forward, and in particular the two growth drivers
      > will be China and India."
      >
      > Both have rapid economic growth and huge, nearly
      > car-free populations, he
      > said.
      >
      > "I mean, we're talking about China growing eight,
      > nine per cent [annually]
      > in recent years and continuing to grow somewhere
      > between seven and eight per
      > cent for the next little while, and India not far
      > behind at around six per
      > cent. . . . What tends to happen in countries with
      > rising incomes is that
      > the rate of vehicle ownership rises alongside the
      > income level.
      >
      > "When we look at China and India, vehicle ownership
      > rates are still very,
      > very low compared with the rest of the world. For
      > example, in India there
      > are only about 10 vehicles for every thousand
      > people, and in China it's
      > about 19 for every thousand. Compare that with a
      > level close to 580, which
      > is the case here in Canada."
      >
      > India's population, at 1.05 billion, is second only
      > to China's and growing
      > faster, the report says. Even without an increase in
      > the ownership rate,
      > Indian vehicles sales "must continue to advance by
      > 20 per cent per annum
      > just to keep up with population growth," it says.
      >
      > Other developing countries show strength too. In
      > Mexico, auto sales jumped
      > 10 per cent this year to pass one million for the
      > first time, the report
      > says. In South America, business is coming back,
      > with sales in Brazil, the
      > biggest market, rising about 14 per cent to 1.34
      > million, second only to a
      > 1997 peak of 1.36 million, it says.
      >
      > In the United States, sales increased by less than 1
      > per cent to 16.7
      > million (the first U.S. gain since 2000) and are
      > expected to be "largely
      > flat" in 2005, while Canadian sales fell about 4 per
      > cent to 1.53 million as
      > record oil prices dimmed buyer enthusiasm, it says.
      >
      > In Western Europe, sales reached about 14.5 million,
      > up from a five-year low
      > of 14.2 million in 2003. The continent's hopes for
      > future growth rest with
      > the newer and poorer European Union member
      > countries, Mr. Gomes added.
      >
      >
      >
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