7346Re: [carfree_cities] "Enough oil to last for 500 years"
- Jun 1, 2004Jeremy Hubble replied:
>The article seems to be fairly accurate. I don't know the details ofThe number simply don't make any kind of sense at all.
>the numbers he sited, but they do seem to be relatively in line with
>what I have heard before.
Even optimistic sources like IEA and USGS are nowhere
near this optimistic.
>1) Oil shale reserves have not been tapped because of their cost. AThe cost that is causing these sources not to be tapped is not
>sustained hire cost of oil would be required before they would be
the economic cost but the energy cost. It takes more energy
to mine and process this stuff than you get from it. It's a
non-started in general; there may be a few specific cases where
the shale is near the surface and sufficiently concentrated
that it can be produced with less energy than it releases, but
you can pretty much forget about the oil shales.
>2) Yes, tapping all sources of possible oil may provide enough fuel forimpossible; even 100 years is extremely unlikely
>500 years at 2000 consumption rates.
>At 1900 demand the oil supplyNo, oil consumption would have had to quadruple since
>would last for millennia.
1990 for this mythical source to last "millennia" or
2000 years or more . In fact, oil consumption is not up
all that much in the past 14 years, certainly far less
than a doubling.
>He left out the market itself. There is a significant effort to produceThey will turn up more than nothing, but they are unlikely
>oil, as well as risks involved. Exploration efforts may turn up
to yield any really big finds; the large fields were mostly
found decades ago, and there have only been two reasonably
big finds in the past 20 years.
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J.H. Crawford Carfree Cities
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