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7346Re: [carfree_cities] "Enough oil to last for 500 years"

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  • J.H. Crawford
    Jun 1, 2004
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      Jeremy Hubble replied:

      >The article seems to be fairly accurate. I don't know the details of
      >the numbers he sited, but they do seem to be relatively in line with
      >what I have heard before.

      The number simply don't make any kind of sense at all.
      Even optimistic sources like IEA and USGS are nowhere
      near this optimistic.

      >1) Oil shale reserves have not been tapped because of their cost. A
      >sustained hire cost of oil would be required before they would be
      >utilized.

      The cost that is causing these sources not to be tapped is not
      the economic cost but the energy cost. It takes more energy
      to mine and process this stuff than you get from it. It's a
      non-started in general; there may be a few specific cases where
      the shale is near the surface and sufficiently concentrated
      that it can be produced with less energy than it releases, but
      you can pretty much forget about the oil shales.

      >2) Yes, tapping all sources of possible oil may provide enough fuel for
      >500 years at 2000 consumption rates.

      impossible; even 100 years is extremely unlikely

      >At 1900 demand the oil supply
      >would last for millennia.

      No, oil consumption would have had to quadruple since
      1990 for this mythical source to last "millennia" or
      2000 years or more . In fact, oil consumption is not up
      all that much in the past 14 years, certainly far less
      than a doubling.

      >He left out the market itself. There is a significant effort to produce
      >oil, as well as risks involved. Exploration efforts may turn up
      >nothing.

      They will turn up more than nothing, but they are unlikely
      to yield any really big finds; the large fields were mostly
      found decades ago, and there have only been two reasonably
      big finds in the past 20 years.

      Regards,


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      J.H. Crawford Carfree Cities
      mailbox@... http://www.carfree.com
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