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12414Re: [carfree_cities] Arctic ice disaster looms

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  • Michael A. Lewis
    Oct 10, 2012
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      On Oct 10, 2012, at 7:16 AM, J.H. Crawford wrote:

      > I didn't know half this stuff, and I follow climate change fairly closely:
      > http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-currier/arctic-climate-change_b_1911550.html

      One of the problems with "connecting the dots" is that the resulting picture depends to a great deal on the predilections of the dot connector. One can reveal an image of runaway Arctic ice melting, or one can discover a picture of a giraffe eating an ice cream cone.

      The referenced Huffingtington Post article is replete with "if"s, "could"s, "potential"s, "suggests," "probably"s and other less concrete suppositions, what one has come to expect from Nathan Currier and cohorts at the "Climate Reality Project," Al Gore's failed attempt to recover lost political influence through a continuation of his "Inconvenient Truth" scaremongering campaign.

      The problem with possibilism is that anything is possible, including the exact opposite of the possibilities suggested by such articles as this excessively arm-waving diatribe.

      The "solution" proposed to deal with Arctic ice reduction is far more frightening than the reality of natural climate variation. "Geoengineering," the ultimate expression of mechanistic hubris, is suggested as a means to "stop" this nefarious Arctic ice reduction, and "save" the Arctic ice. Nothing could be more dangerously absurd.

      We do not understand all of the complex cosmic and geophysical mechanisms and interactions that result in weather and climate on this planet. We do know that climate has varied naturally for millions of years without human intervention. We do know that the Arctic has been largely ice-free several times in the past without human intervention. We do know that the earth has gone through four global ice advances over the past 500,000 years, without human intervention. Anyone with eyes to see can perceive the rise in global temperatures accompanied by a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration that accompanied each of these ice ages and interglacials.

      It is clear, from a geological perspective, that the earth is in the last stages of the Holocene interglacial, following exactly the same pattern as in the past interglacials. The world’s climate is about to peak and begin the long slide down into the next glacial advance. The principle of uniformitarianism tells us that geophysical processes in the past occurred by the same mechanisms as the geophysical processes we observe in the present.

      Therefore, there is no need to search for new, man-made mechanisms of climate variation in the present when we know perfectly well that observed climate variation has natural explanations.

      The difference is, we can’t do anything about natural processes of climate variation. Our only recourse is accommodation. Any attempts at “geoengineering,” in ignorance of its consequences in a complex adaptive climate system, are like infants playing with a loaded revolver. We can’t predict the outcome of observed climate variation, let alone the results of our careless meddling with overwhelming geophysical processes.

      The climate scare-mongering practiced by the likes of Al Gore, Bill McKibben and James Hansen are politically (and economically) motivated attempts to build influence and control in the international field of “sustainable development” promulgated by the United Nations United Nations Environment Programme. This is not about science, it’s about politics, funding and control.

      Michael A. Lewis

      Michael A. Lewis
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