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Welcome 'chaos friends'!

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  • Simone Caramel
    I am very glad to see that after only 3 days our list has got already 10 members. Thanks and welcome to everyone: Bruce Tedesco, Frederic Dupont, J.Melone,
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 1 5:48 PM
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      I am very glad to see that after only 3 days our list has got already 10
      members.
      Thanks and welcome to everyone: Bruce Tedesco, Frederic Dupont, J.Melone,
      John Starrett, Junling Ma, Kurma, Sebastiano Manzan, Luciano Zazzetti and
      Jesus
      Crespo. Thanks Jesus for your presentation.
      I think during this month and the next one to leave time to all people
      interested in
      this project to join our list, therefore it could be useful to spend this
      time presenting
      ourselves obviously refer to the subject of this ML (education, why the
      passion for chaos,
      chaos field of application, personal and general chaos studies and
      research in each field of application,
      expectations and suggestments for this ML organization, and so on).
      I present myself so you can know who is this misterious man who invited you
      to join this list. :)
      My name is Simone Caramel, born and living actually in Treviso (30km from
      Venice, Italy)
      december 18th, 1970.
      I was graduated in economics by the University of Venice presenting a
      thesis titled:
      'Consistency of Expectations in Economic Models with Complex Behavious'
      with the supervision
      of my chairman prof. PH.D. Alfredo Medio.
      So I knew chaos theory when I started to attend Medio's teaching, seen that
      he's is specialized in
      chaos, and expecially in chaotic dynamics and its applications to
      economics.
      There are several models used in economic research which are good for a
      dynamical approach:
      for instance models of overlapping generation (e.g. Benhabib and Day,
      1982; Grandmont, 1985),
      macroeconomic models (e.g. Stutzer, 1980; Day, 1982), model of rational
      consumption (e.g. Benhabib and Day, 1981), models of optimal growth (e.g.
      Deneckere and Pelikan, 1986), models derived from economic problems using
      one-hump functions (e.g. Baumal and Benhabib, 1988; Lorenz, 1989; Boldrin
      and
      Woodford, 1990 and Scheinkman, 1990), Cobweb models (e.g. Day and Hanson,
      1991), Hick's nonlinear
      trade cycle model (e.g. Hommes, 1995), Sunspots (e.g. Woodford, 1990),
      Keynesian macroeconomic models (e.g. B�hm, Lohmann and Lorenz, 1994),
      Models of complexity in finance (e.g. Brock and Hommes, 1996), Application
      to financial markets (e.g. Hsieh, 1991).
      Particularly in my thesis I pay attention to the similitudes, using linear
      tests (or in terms of linear statistics), between stochastic processes
      dynamics and a closed class of deterministic processes generating chaotic
      dynamics.
      In a feedback expectations system, I show how it is possible to distinguish
      between linear (stochastic) expectations and non linear (deterministic)
      actual law of motion using some non linear tests: for instance, the
      expectational errors are not IID using the BDS test.
      I introduce some non linear beliefs, in a tipical model with chaotic
      dynamics, to verify its consistency, and after that, I compare this results
      with the outcome of an alternative use of simple linear expectations: I
      show how, in a consistent expectations equilibria, it could be produced
      selffulfilling mistakes, and no more selffulfilling expectations (as in the
      CEE by Hommes and Sorger).
      A final research was oriented to study the complex dynamics in an OLG model
      without production introducing omogeneous or heterogeneous beliefs. I show
      that, in case of heterogeneous beliefs, using 2 alternative predictors
      chosen considering some performance past measure, if the agents take the
      predictors fifty fifty
      (or, at the same time, there is a equal distribution of the beliefs between
      2 alternative
      predictors) then this is a welcome situation to semplify the dynamics of
      all the system.
      Key words of my thesis are: expectation's formation, agents belief,
      learning dynamics, consistency of expectations, neural network, nets of
      network, case-based decision theory, sensory order,
      nearest neighbour, bounded rationality, piecewise linear predictor, tent
      map, BDS test, selfulfilling mistakes,
      Markov chain, homogeneous and heterogeneous beliefs in a OLG model.
      Waiting for you now, I thank you again, and have a nice holiday if you are
      going to spend it in august.
      Cordially yours,
      Simone Caramel




      I leave here the bibliography of my thesis for who can be interested:
      References

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      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
      Caramel Simone
      via Doberd� 3
      31020 - Fontane di Villorba
      Treviso - Italy
      tel. +39 0422 420564 home
      +39 0338 8129030 mobile
      +39 0422 300792 work
      http://users.iol.it/canziani.ado
      e-mail:
      adothepoet@...
      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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