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How well did CalCars Predict 2005?

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  • Felix Kramer
    In year-end wrap-ups, most pundits congratulate themselves if they re right half the time. Just for fun, we thought we d see our batting average. We scored
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 28, 2005
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      In year-end wrap-ups, most pundits congratulate themselves if they're right
      half the time. Just for fun, we thought we'd see our batting average. We
      scored 73.5% on our "CalCars/PRIUS+ Progress and Predictions for 2005" (the
      full text of which you can find at
      <http://www.calcars.org/news-2004.html>). Here's the run-down.


      VEHICLES: 7 of 8

      * With your help, we believe PHEVs could become an established platform for
      future transportation options and the first custom PHEVs could be in
      owners' driveways in '06 -- maybe even in '05.
      HALF POINT (We're expecting cars from EDrive in the first half of next year.)

      * Our first PRIUS+ will work and its performance will start lots of people
      talking.
      YES: FULL POINT

      * We hope to be able to promote PRIUS+ as a 100+ mile per gallon solution!
      YES: FULL POINT (This message has caught on well.)

      * Already, with a vehicle in development, and the prospect of building cars
      that we can take on the road and distribute to high-profile drivers, we're
      finding it easier to get attention.
      YES: FULL POINT

      * We're hoping that our coming-out party for the PRIUS+ sometime in the
      next few months will provide the kickoff for much more media attention.
      YES: FULL POINT

      * ... inquiries from private companies interested in offering "niche
      market" services and conversion kits.
      YES: FULL POINT

      * the first prototypes of the DaimlerChrysler Sprinter PHEV should be
      demonstrated this year.
      YES: FULL POINT (Southern California Edison received delivery of the first
      two vehicles in December.)

      * In the scramble among automakers to offer hybrids, their need to
      differentiate "full" and "strong" hybrids from those that are hybrid in
      name only helps those who are working behind the scenes to interest car
      companies in building PHEVs.
      HALF POINT (As the category of "muscle hybrids" came into use, Ford and
      Toyota began highlighting their cars' ability to drive only on electric
      power, which is a step toward PHEVs.)



      POLICY & FLEETS 4.5 of 6

      * Policy makers and fleet purchasers are starting to listen when PHEVs'
      advocates say they require no new infrastructure or technology, and that
      their lifetime total cost of ownership is better than conventional cars or
      hybrids.
      YES: FULL POINT (In December, the Electric Power Research Institute and
      Southern California Edison presented new calculations of lifetime cost of
      ownership; we hope this information will soon be distributed broadly.)

      * And they are beginning to see a path to a compelling business model for
      buyers and manufacturers by combining public and private rebates and other
      funding for the first volume production of PHEVs. Then they can start
      talking about the enormous societal benefits.
      HALF POINT (Policy makers: yes, fleet buyers: too soon to tell.)

      * We've established new lines of communication with staff and principals at
      many levels of government, which could lead to allocations of substantial
      funds to support development of PHEVs.
      YES: FULL POINT (We hope the Energy Act program is the first step.)

      * Perhaps our efforts, in concert with others, could even attract an OEM to
      start designing and assembling PHEVs in California.
      NOT YET (That's a tall order.)

      * We're getting indications that California's Hydrogen Highway initiatives
      may start to evolve to make room for PHEVs (with range extension fuel
      coming not only from gasoline, but also from biofuels like bio-diesel and
      cellulose ethanol)
      YES: FULL POINT (The state's Blueprint document opened these topics to
      discussion, and it looks like the case is becoming more compelling to
      policy makers.)

      *...seeing PHEVs as a keystone component of a strategy to address global
      warming both nationally and internationally.
      YES: FULL POINT (This point of view has been gaining support.)



      CALCARS 1.0 of 3

      * In addition to our first foundation grant, we've been encouraged by
      several potential funders to apply for short- and medium-term support,
      largely for advocacy and educational efforts.
      HALF POINT (We received a second grant, but we've lacked the volunteers
      able to devote themselves to this time-consuming process, and had no budget
      to hire a grants-person.)

      * We continue discussions with several California and national nonprofit
      groups about their "adopting" CalCars as their PHEV project. We don't
      benefit significantly from being free-standing, and we could use
      institutional support beyond our current fiscal agent for accepting
      tax-deductible contributions. So if you have a possible partner in mind,
      tell them to check us out. We offer a no-risk strategy to an "acquisition
      partner:" We'll keep doing what we're doing and we'll raise all the money
      we need to support our efforts.
      NOT YET.

      * We hope one or more individuals who sees the strategic importance and
      urgency to commercialize PHEVs will step forward as a major patron
      (together with foundations) to enable us to ramp up CalCars.
      HALF POINT (While we have received a few sizeable contributions, the effort
      to raise money continues to preoccupy us and prevent us from spending more
      time on our programmatic goals.)


      SCORECARD: 12.5 out of 17 or 73.5%. With your help and support, we hope to
      meet or beat this already high record in 2006 -- see our goals (and a
      request for your financial support), at
      http://autos.groups.yahoo.com/group/calcars-news/message/232> as part of
      the downloadable/printable 4-page PDF found at
      <http://www.calcars.org/calcars-05report-06goals.pdf> and soon at
      <http://www.calcars.org/news.html>





      -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
      Felix Kramer fkramer@...
      Founder California Cars Initiative
      http://www.calcars.org
      http://groups.yahoo.com/group/calcars-news
      http://www.hybridcars.com/blogs/power
      http://groups.yahoo.com/group/priusplus
      http://www.seattleeva.org/wiki/EAA-PHEV
      -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
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