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Undecided on CA Prop 10? Out-of-Stater Who Knows Californians? Read & Forward

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  • Felix Kramer
    Read carefully if you live in California. If not, we encourage you to forward this posting, or its URL, or a link to http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 3, 2008
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      Read carefully if you live in California. If not, we encourage you to
      forward this posting, or its URL, or a link to
      http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html to voting Californians. This
      matchup will be close.

      $22,000,000 for Prop 10; $150,000 against -- that's 180 to 1. Though
      it's opposed by practically every environmental group and newspaper
      editorial board, all the TV ads are on one side. The October CA Field
      poll showed 49% for, 39% against, 12% undecided. The
      name, "Alternative Fuel Vehicles And Renewable Energy," makes it
      sound great! Who will win?

      We've posted information several times about the initiative. But
      until we read Scott Doggett's column at Edmunds Green Car Advisor, we
      weren't fully aware of all the ins and outs, and we didn't fully
      realize the implications if it passes. Check it out for yourself. For
      a non-partisan view with links, try to get through to
      http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=California_Proposition_10_(2008)
      For both sides see http://prop10yes.com and
      http://www.noonproposition10.org . Here's Doggett's column, posted Sunday.


      Pickens' Proposition Would Cost Taxpayers Billions, but Benefit Very Few
      <http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2008/11/pickens-proposition-would-cost-taxpayers-billions-but-benefit-very-few.html#more>http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2008/11/pickens-proposition-would-cost-taxpayers-billions-but-benefit-very-few.html#more

      You can't always get what you want, but if you've got a big pot of
      money and a sweet-sounding environmental pitch, chances are you can
      get a proposition on a state ballot. In California, anyway.

      And if there's enough money left in the pot to pay for volleys of TV
      ads after you've paid the people who gathered the signatures needed
      to put the proposition on the ballot, odds are it will become state
      law. In California, anyway.

      And, because California is such a trendsetting state, if your
      proposition becomes law there, it stands a good chance of becoming
      law in other states as well.

      Oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens knows this. It's why the Texas
      billionaire is bankrolling a proposition -- one that ostensibly would
      advance renewable energy and alternative fuels -- on California's
      November 4 general election ballot.

      In truth, what it advances most is Picken's fortune -- while costing
      the state's taxpayers $10 billion.

      To give you an idea of how little California can afford Pickens'
      proposition, consider that officials in Sacramento are expected to
      announce this coming week that the state's budget deficit has reached
      at least $10 billion.

      The budget crisis is why Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger wrote to
      Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson last month informing him that
      "California may need to turn to the Federal Treasury for short-term
      financing." A bailout, in other words.

      At a time when the locomotive that drives America's economic train
      can least afford it, Pickens' initiative would nearly double
      California's deficit.

      And despite the crushing cost the proposition would levy on all of
      the state's taxpayers, the ballot measure would benefit very few
      while throwing a tremendous amount of money behind an automotive fuel
      that isn't very green compared to other alternative fuels that could
      benefit from that kind of spending.

      "Alternative Fuel Vehicles And Renewable Energy"

      That's the formal name of the measure. The informal? Prop 10, because
      it's the tenth proposition on Tuesday's California general election ballot.

      Directly beneath the formal name voters will see the following 68 words:

      "Authorizes $5 billion in bonds paid from state's General Fund, to
      help consumers and others purchase certain vehicles, and to fund
      research in renewable energy and alternative fuel vehicles. Fiscal
      Impact: State cost of about $10 billion over 30 years to repay bonds.
      Increased state and local revenues, potentially totaling several tens
      of millions of dollars through 2019. Potential state administrative
      costs up to about $10 million annually."

      There's not another word about Prop 10 on the ballot. "Certain
      vehicles," "research in renewable energy" and "alternative fuel
      vehicles" are not defined. Voters who'd like to know exactly what
      they are being asked to vote on won't get any more help from the
      ballot than what you just read in the previous paragraph.

      The couple of obvious things we can deduce from the measure is that
      the $5 billion taken from the General Fund would cost taxpayers $10
      billion to repay ($5 billion in principal and $5 billion in
      interest). They'd have 30 years to do it in, which breaks down to
      $335 million a year for three decades. Because it's General Fund
      money, it would be taken from the same pot from which public schools
      and hospitals receive their funding.

      Ugh.

      What's more, new taxes would have to be levied or existing ones
      raised to make up at least some the losses the schools, hospitals and
      other public institutions would incur during the 30 years
      Californians paid for Prop 10. "Increased state and local revenues"
      is bureaucratic code for increased taxes.

      Voters can learn more about Prop 10 online. Details can be found in
      the 22-page law that passage of the proposition would create, as well
      as a 5-page analysis of the law prepared by the state Legislative
      Analyst's Office.

      But finding those documents takes skillful Internet sleuthing, and
      deciphering them requires substantial brainwork. Few of California's
      23 million eligible voters will have read either of the docs when
      they go to the polls on Tuesday to cast a vote that could negatively
      affect their lives for decades.

      A Hail of TV Commercials

      Most Californians who vote for or against Prop 10 will do so in
      reaction to TV commercials that have been pelting them for months.

      The pro-Prop 10 commercials have been relentless, not surprising
      given the deep pockets of the measure's chief contributors: Clean
      Energy Fuels Corp., a company Pickens controls that operates natural
      gas filling stations throughout the U.S.; Chesapeake Energy Corp.,
      the largest producer of natural gas in the country; and, Aubrey K.
      McClendon, Chesapeake Energy's chairman and CEO.

      As of Friday, Clean Energy had invested at least $18 million in Prop
      10's passage, Chesapeake Energy had pitched in with $3 million and
      McClendon had anted-up $500,000.

      The most frequent of the pro-Prop 10 commercials features a
      middle-aged white man in working-class duds fueling a pickup truck, a
      Latina plugging in a battery-electric car, a little blonde girl in a
      pink shirt holding a daisy, an Asian man in a lab coat beside a
      microscope, and an African-American man looking very corporate in a
      smart suit and corner office.

      Together, the actors state that Prop 10 "will help break our
      addiction to expensive foreign oil by giving Californians rebates to
      purchase vehicles that run on alternative fuels produced in America.
      Proposition 10 will generate more energy from the sun and the wind,
      and fund research and development for cleaner alternative energy to
      reduce pollution, with performance audits, with strict
      accountability, and no new taxes. For energy independence, for clean
      air, for California's future, vote yes on Proposition 10."

      In those few lines, the commercial exploits popular sentiments for
      clean, efficient, secure energy and no new taxes. On the face of it,
      the 30-second ad is very agreeable.

      As for TV commercials opposing Prop 10, there aren't any.

      Opponents say they simply don't have the funds. As of Friday, the No
      On Prop 10 campaign had raised exactly $125,000, $50,000 of which
      came from the California School Employees Assn. and $40,000 from the
      California Nurses Assn.

      By comparison, the Yes On Prop 10 campaign had raised $22,499,750.

      A young woman answering the phone for the No On Prop 10 campaign last
      week told us "all of the money this year is going to fight Prop 8," a
      measure primarily bankrolled by church groups to ban gay marriages in
      California. "We might have a radio spot, but it would be limited to
      the San Francisco area."

      Legislative-Analysts-Office.jpgRebates To Grow the Nat-Gas Industry

      As with so many propositions, political and otherwise, the Devil is
      in the details. The pro-Prop 10 campaign -- let's be real, it's just
      Pickens, McClendon, their companies and a few others in the
      natural-gas business -- has made some strong claims.

      The most important is that Prop 10 will "help break our addiction to
      expensive foreign oil by giving Californians rebates to purchase
      vehicles that run on alternative fuels produced in America."

      If you read the 22-page law that passage of Prop 10 would create,
      you'd see that the rebates are structured in such a way that only a
      fraction of the rebate money would go toward the purchase of the
      greenest vehicles. The vast majority would reward buyers of --
      surprise! -- natural-gas vehicles.

      Exactly $2.85 billion of the $5 billion allocated by Prop 10 would go
      toward rebates. Here's the breakdown of them as pertains to cars and
      trucks weighing less than 8,500 pounds:

      * Owners of "clean alternative fuel vehicles" (defined as vehicles
      powered by "natural gas and any fuel that achieves a reduction of at
      least 10 percent carbon intensity of California's transportation
      fuels" as outlined by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in January 2007)
      will be eligible for $10,000 rebates, with $550 million allocated for
      this purpose.
      * Owners of "very high fuel economy vehicles" (a vehicle achieving no
      less than 60 miles per gallon) will be eligible for $4,000 rebates,
      with $230 million allocated for this purpose.
      * Owners of "high fuel economy vehicles" (a vehicle achieving no less
      than 45 miles per gallon) will be eligible for $2,000 rebates, with
      $110 million allocated for this purpose.

      What's sad about the above is that people who buy a car that runs on
      natural gas or a fuel that emits only 10 percent less carbon dioxide
      than gasoline would be eligible for a $10,000 rebate. The Honda GX
      Civic, the only natural-gas car available in North America made by a
      major automaker, only gets about 24 miles per gallon around town and
      36 mpg on the highway when its consumption is converted to gasoline
      equivalent mpg.

      Yet a person who buys a car that gets at least 60 mpg is eligible for
      only a $4,000 rebate, and someone who buys a car getting at least 45
      mpg would be eligible for only a $2,000 rebate. Clearly, the system
      is heavily skewed toward the purchase of natural-gas vehicles, which
      Honda is making very few of for the U.S. market (1,000 during the
      2008 model year and 2,000 for the 2009 model year, compared to
      200,000 gas-powered Civics).

      The remaining $1.96 billion in rebates would be made available to
      owners of "new or repowered" trucks, meaning trucks that run on a
      "clean alternative fuel," which as you read above was defined as
      "natural gas...."

      Recall that Clean Energy Fuels Corp., which Pickens founded and holds
      a controlling interest in, owns natural-gas service stations across
      the U.S., and Chesapeake Energy owns a lot of natural gas. Because
      there are few cars on the road powered by natural gas, Pickens et al
      are trying to get taxpayers to subsidize natural-gas vehicles to grow
      their customer base. It's a smart move -- for them.

      Rebates or tax incentives need to be offered to popularize natural
      gas as an automotive fuel. That's because the vehicles that use it
      are pricey (Honda's Civic GX costs $7,000 more than a standard
      Civic). And because there aren't many natural-gas stations around,
      most Civic GX owners purchase a home fueling station (about $5,000);
      Prop 10 would provide a $2,000 rebate to buyers of such stations.

      A Natural Climate-Changing Gas

      Pickens' plan to grow the nat-gas-for-autos industry in the most
      populous state in the union on the backs of taxpayers wouldn't be so
      foul if natural gas was more environmentally friendly. It's true that
      for an equivalent amount of heat, burning natural gas produces about
      30 percent less carbon dioxide than burning gasoline and about 45
      percent less than burning coal.

      However, natural gas itself is a powerful, climate-altering
      greenhouse gas. Indeed, it is much more effective than carbon dioxide
      at trapping heat in the atmosphere -- 58 times more effective on a
      pound-for-pound basis, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.

      While natural gas has a lower carbon-to-hydrogen ratio than other
      petroleum fuels (and therefore emits less carbon dioxide), when
      leakage from discovery, extraction and transportation of the gaseous
      fossil fuel are taken into account, natural gas is every bit the
      contributor to global warming that gasoline is.

      But, because natural gas is carbon-cleaner than coal, it makes sense
      to try to use it instead of coal in the generation of electricity.

      In fact, the higher efficiency of state-of-the-art natural gas
      turbines over older coal-fired power plants could reduce
      carbon-dioxide emissions by an additional 30 percent. That's why it's
      reasonable to replace coal, but not gasoline, with natural gas as a
      power-plant fuel.

      Pickens should be pressing for that -- in states that burn coal in
      their power generating plants. And California isn't one of them.

      Among the other problems with pouring so many resources into natural
      gas for automobiles is the fact that even if it were 30 percent
      cleaner in greenhouse-gas emissions than gasoline, it is no more
      nonrenewable than gasoline. Neither can be replenished on a human
      time frame and both may be peaking.

      Solar Wind Research, Performance Audits, and "No New Taxes"

      If Proposition 10 passes, $1.25 billion would be spent on solar and
      wind research, design and construction. That's not necessarily a bad
      thing, because solar and wind energy are renewable and there's lots
      of sun and windy corridors in California. Pickens has personally sunk
      $58 million into wind energy and would no doubt like to receive some
      of this incentive money to cut his investment risk.

      On the other hand, should California taxpayers subsidize his and
      other businesses when there's already a ton of venture capital going
      into solar- and wind-energy projects?

      The idea that the taxpayer ought to bail out greedy Wall Street firms
      and Detroit's competent-debatable carmakers and assume a chunk of the
      risk of energy companies -- it's too much for the middle class to
      bear. What's next? A taxpayer bailout every time any business doesn't succeed?

      In addition to stating that Proposition 10 would "generate more
      energy from the sun and the wind and fund research and development
      for cleaner alternative energy to reduce pollution," the yes-on-10
      commercials state there would be "performance audits, with strict
      accountability, and no new taxes."

      Liars. In contrast to present California alternative fuel subsidy
      programs, Prop 10 would require no accountability in terms of
      measuring tailpipe-emissions or petroleum-usage reductions. It
      doesn't even require that taxpayer-subsidized natural-gas-powered
      trucks and cars stay in California.

      And as for "no new taxes," there is no way California's lawmakers
      would slash programs by $10 billion to offset the cost of Prop 10.
      The Legislature is already unable to balance the state budget, and
      tax-hating Schwarzenegger has said recently that he might have to
      raise taxes to bring the budget under control.

      Gotta Stop Behaving Like Americans

      There was a terrific Frontline documentary on PBS the other night
      titled "Heat" that investigated how the world's largest corporations
      and governments are responding to Earth's looming environmental disaster.

      The documentary opens with Sunita Narain of the Center for Science
      and Environment in New Delhi saying, "We're standing at the precipice
      of hell. If everybody else was to live like an American, then the
      planet is doomed."

      For the next two hours Frontline correspondent Martin Smith
      introduced viewers to climate scientists the world over who, one
      after another, said the only way to avoid unimaginable disasters is
      for mankind to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases by 60 to 80
      percent by mid-century.

      When you consider that we Americans represent only 5 percent of the
      Earth's human population but generate 25 percent of its greenhouse
      gases, something deep inside every one of us ought to feel guilty.

      Right now there are 36 million Californians. If Prop 10 passes, the
      $10 billion cost if averaged across the state's residents would cost
      each one $277. That's $9.23 per person per year over the bonds'
      30-year lifespan.

      It's a cheap price to pay for the polluting we've been doing, and if
      Pickens' proposition was a major step in the right direction, then
      the people of the Golden State, where the automobile and its CO2
      emissions are a major part of the social fabric, ought to be willing
      to pay the piper without complaint.

      But in the pantheon of egregious California ballot measures, this one
      is one of the worst.

      A recent poll by The Sacramento Bee found that while Prop 10 was
      garnering more support than opposition among likely voters, there
      were enough undecided voters that it didn't quite have the 50
      percent-plus-one margin needed for passage. We sincerely hope those
      undecideds see the light and that this continues to be the case.
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