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The Doom That Came To N'Warlins

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  • Robert G. Seeberger
    http://www.terradaily.com/news/hurricane-05zd.html For all its numbing ferocity, Hurricane Katrina will not be a unique event, say scientists, who say that
    Message 1 of 5 , Aug 31, 2005
      http://www.terradaily.com/news/hurricane-05zd.html

      For all its numbing ferocity, Hurricane Katrina will not be a unique
      event, say scientists, who say that global warming appears to be
      pumping up the power of big Atlantic storms.
      2005 is on track to be the worst-ever year for hurricanes, according
      to experts measuring ocean temperatures and trade winds -- the two big
      factors that breed these storms in the Caribbean and tropical North
      Atlantic.

      Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based consortium of
      experts, predicted that the region would see 22 tropical storms during
      the six-month June-November season, the most ever recorded and more
      than twice the average annual tally since records began in 1851.

      Seven of these storms would strike the United States, of which three
      would be hurricanes, it said.

      Already, 2004 and 2003 were exceptional years: they marked the highest
      two-year totals ever recorded for overall hurricane activity in the
      North Atlantic.

      This increase has also coincided with a big rise in Earth's surface
      temperature in recent years, driven by greenhouse gases that cause the
      Sun's heat to be stored in the sea, land and air rather than radiate
      back out to space.

      But experts are cautious, also noting that hurricane numbers seem to
      undergo swings, over decades.

      About 90 tropical storms -- a term that includes hurricanes and their
      Asian counterparts, typhoons -- occur each year.

      The global total seems to be stable, although regional tallies vary a
      lot, and in particular seem to be influenced by the El Nino weather
      pattern in the Western Pacific.

      "(Atlantic) cyclones have been increasing in numbers since 1995, but
      one can't say with certainty that there is a link to global warming,"
      says Patrick Galois with the French weather service Meteo-France.

      "There have been other high-frequency periods for storms, such as in
      the 1950s and 60s, and it could be that what we are seeing now is
      simply part of a cycle, with highs and lows."

      On the other hand, more and more scientists estimate that global
      warming, while not necessarily making hurricanes more frequent or
      likelier to make landfall, is making them more vicious.

      Hurricanes derive from clusters of thunderstorms over tropical waters
      that are warmer than 27.2 C (81 C).

      A key factor in ferocity is the temperature differential between the
      sea surface and the air above the storm. The warmer the sea, the
      bigger the differential and the bigger the potential to "pump up" the
      storm.

      Just a tiny increase in surface temperature can have an extraordinary
      effect, says researcher Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute
      of Technology (MIT).

      In a study published in Nature in July, Emanuel found that the
      destructive power of North Atlantic storms had doubled over the past
      30 years, during which the sea-surface temperature rose by only 0.5 C
      (0.9 F).

      Emanuel's yardstick is storm duration and windpower: hurricanes lasted
      longer and packed higher windspeeds than before.

      Another factor in destructiveness is flooding. Kevin Trenberth of the
      US National Center for Atmospheric Research suggests that hurricanes
      are dumping more rainfall as warmer seas suck more moisture into the
      air, swelling the stormclouds.

      The indirect evidence for this is that water vapour over oceans
      worldwide has increased by about two percent since 1988. But data is
      sketchy for precipitation dropped by recent hurricanes.

      "The intensity of and rainfalls from hurricanes are probably
      increasing, even if this increase cannot yet be proven with a formal
      statistical test," Trenberth wrote in the US journal Science in June.
      He said computer models "suggest a shift" toward the extreme in in
      hurricane intensities.



      xponent

      Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Maru

      rob


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    • Ronn!Blankenship
      ... OTOH: Storms Vary With Cycles, Experts Say By KENNETH CHANG Published: August 30, 2005 Because hurricanes form over warm ocean water, it is easy to assume
      Message 2 of 5 , Aug 31, 2005
        At 05:32 AM Wednesday 8/31/2005, Robert G. Seeberger wrote:
        >http://www.terradaily.com/news/hurricane-05zd.html
        >
        >For all its numbing ferocity, Hurricane Katrina will not be a unique
        >event, say scientists, who say that global warming appears to be
        >pumping up the power of big Atlantic storms.
        >2005 is on track to be the worst-ever year for hurricanes, according
        >to experts measuring ocean temperatures and trade winds -- the two big
        >factors that breed these storms in the Caribbean and tropical North
        >Atlantic.
        >
        >Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based consortium of
        >experts, predicted that the region would see 22 tropical storms during
        >the six-month June-November season, the most ever recorded and more
        >than twice the average annual tally since records began in 1851.
        >
        >Seven of these storms would strike the United States, of which three
        >would be hurricanes, it said.>
        >Already, 2004 and 2003 were exceptional years: they marked the highest
        >two-year totals ever recorded for overall hurricane activity in the
        >North Atlantic.
        >
        >This increase has also coincided with a big rise in Earth's surface
        >temperature in recent years, driven by greenhouse gases that cause the
        >Sun's heat to be stored in the sea, land and air rather than radiate
        >back out to space.



        OTOH:

        Storms Vary With Cycles, Experts Say

        By KENNETH CHANG
        Published: August 30, 2005

        Because hurricanes form over warm ocean water, it is easy to assume that
        the recent rise in their number and ferocity is because of global warming.

        But that is not the case, scientists say. Instead, the severity of
        hurricane seasons changes with cycles of temperatures of several decades in
        the Atlantic Ocean. The recent onslaught "is very much natural," said
        William M. Gray, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State
        University who issues forecasts for the hurricane season.

        Full text at
        <<http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/30/national/30cycle.html>>. (You may not
        have to register, as it was in yesterday's paper.)


        Don't You Wish Those Blasted Scientists Would Just Make Up Their Minds Maru


        -- Ronn! :)



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      • Alberto Monteiro
        ... But not restricted to that: it seems that Southern Brazil may become the next target for the Fury of the Atmosphere. Last year we had one episode of a huge
        Message 3 of 5 , Aug 31, 2005
          > For all its numbing ferocity, Hurricane Katrina will not be a unique
          > event, say scientists, who say that global warming appears to be
          > pumping up the power of big Atlantic storms.
          > 2005 is on track to be the worst-ever year for hurricanes, according
          > to experts measuring ocean temperatures and trade winds -- the two
          > big factors that breed these storms in the Caribbean and tropical
          > North Atlantic.
          >
          But not restricted to that: it seems that Southern Brazil may become
          the next target for the Fury of the Atmosphere. Last year we had
          one episode of a huge "thing" [thereĀ“s no consensus about its name,
          either a hurricane or a cyclone - wtf that means], and this week
          we had another. Other "windy things" are expected in September.

          And here in Rio the temperatures go over 37 deg C...

          Alberto Monteiro

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        • Alberto Monteiro
          BTW, was Katrina republican or democrat ? [like those other previous hurricanes that had a preferece for dooming republican places] Alberto Monteiro,
          Message 4 of 5 , Aug 31, 2005
            BTW, was Katrina "republican" or "democrat"? [like those other previous
            hurricanes that had a preferece for dooming republican places]

            Alberto Monteiro, wondering if this message is worth prefixing with His
            name...

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          • Warren Ockrassa
            ... Actually those maps are wholly mythical. Storms don t show precedence. However, here s an interesting little factoid. The southernmost tip of Florida
            Message 5 of 5 , Aug 31, 2005
              On Aug 31, 2005, at 12:27 PM, Alberto Monteiro wrote:

              > BTW, was Katrina "republican" or "democrat"? [like those other previous
              > hurricanes that had a preferece for dooming republican places]

              Actually those maps are wholly mythical. Storms don't show precedence.

              However, here's an interesting little factoid. The southernmost tip of
              Florida receives more lightning strikes per year than any other place
              on Earth.


              --
              Warren Ockrassa, Publisher/Editor, nightwares Books
              http://books.nightwares.com/
              Current work in progress "The Seven-Year Mirror"
              http://www.nightwares.com/books/ockrassa/Flat_Out.pdf

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