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Re: Week 17 NFL Picks

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  • Erik Reuter
    I realized that I was not using a useful piece of information in my statistical analysis -- the time sequence of the scores. This makes a significant
    Message 1 of 4 , Jan 3, 2005
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      I realized that I was not using a useful piece of information in my
      statistical analysis -- the time sequence of the scores. This makes a
      significant difference, because the scores are highly correlated by
      week.

      If we calculate the sequence of JDG minus benchmark scores for each
      week, we get:

      -1 -1 -4 -2 -2

      which has an average of -2, SSD=1.22, and SSD/sqrt(N) = 0.55 and

      sqrt(N)*AVG/SSD = -3.65

      Using t-statistics, this gives a probability of 98.9% (assuming
      4 degrees of freedom) that JDG's average score is lower than the
      benchmark's average score.

      Since the t-statistic for one-tail 0.975 and 4 degrees of freedom is
      2.78, we can also say that we are 95% confident that JDG's score trails
      the benchmarks score by a value between -3.5 and -0.5.

      If we reverse JDG's "upset special", then JDG's score is almost as high
      as the benchmark's, although still slightly behind.


      On Mon, Jan 03, 2005 at 07:01:35AM -0500, Erik Reuter wrote:
      >
      > Both JDG and the benchmark went negative for week 17, with JDG again
      > trailing the benchmark by -2. The benchmark totaled -2 (6-8--2) and JDG
      > -4 (6-10).
      >
      > For the 5 games I tracked this season JDG trailed the benchmark by a
      > cumulative -10. Benchmark scored +26 (47-21--12) and JDG scored +16
      > (48-32).
      >
      > >From these results, you might think that JDG's scores are significantly
      > worse than the benchmark, but statistically there is no significant
      > difference between the benchmark score and JDG's score after 5 games.
      >
      > The benchmark averaged +5.2 with a 95% confidence range of +1.2 to
      > +9.2, so statistically the benchmark is quite likely to have a positive
      > average score. JDG has an average of +3.2 with a 95% confidence range
      > of -1.3 to +7.7, so we cannot say with confidence that JDG's average
      > is above zero.
      >
      > Since the 95% confidence ranges of benchmark and JDG overlap, we
      > also cannot say with confidence that JDG's average is worse than the
      > benchmark's (perhaps if we tracked the scores for an entire season, but
      > I'm not interested enough to do that...)
      >
      > week 17:
      > -2 benchmark 6-8--2
      > -4 JDG 6-10
      >
      > cumulative week 13-17:
      > +26 benchmark 47-21--12
      > +16 JDG 48-32 (* 1-4 *)
      >
      > Recap AVG SD SD/sqrt(N)
      > Benchmark: +7 +9 +4 +8 -2 5.2 4.44 1.99
      > JDG: +6 +8 +0 +6 -4 3.2 5.02 2.24
      >
      > ***
      >
      > Week 17 Benchmark favorites:
      > + Arizona+3 (Tampa Bay)
      > + Baltimore+11 (Miami)
      > - Buffalo+9 (Pittsburgh)
      > - Carolina+7.5 (New Orleans)
      > - Chicago+3 (Green Bay)
      > + Cincinnati+3 (Philadelphia)
      > + Denver+8.5 (Indianapolis)
      > - Detroit+3 (Tennessee)
      > - Houston+10 (Cleveland)
      > - Kansas City+3 (San Diego)
      > - Minnesota+4 (Washington)
      > + New England+13.5 (San Francisco)
      > - NY Jets+3.5 (St Louis)
      > + Seattle+5.5 (Atlanta)
      >
      > Week 17 Benchmark abstain:
      > NY Giants+2.5 (Dallas)
      > Oakland (Jacksonville)
      >
      > ------------------------------
      >
      >
      > JDG picks week 17:
      > - Tampa Bay (Arizona)
      > + Baltimore (Miami)
      > - Buffalo (Pittsburgh)
      > - Carolina (New Orleans)
      > - Chicago (Green Bay)
      > - Philadelphia (Cincinnati)
      > - Indianapolis* (Denver)
      > + Tennessee (Detroit)
      > - Houston (Cleveland)
      > - Kansas City (San Diego)
      > - Minnesota (Washington)
      > + New England (San Francisco)
      > + St. Louis (NY Jets)
      > + Seattle (Atlanta)
      > - Dallas (NY Giants)
      > + Jacksonville (Oakland)
      >
      >
      > _______________________________________________
      > http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l

      --
      Erik Reuter http://www.erikreuter.net/
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      http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
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