## Re: Week 17 NFL Picks

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• I realized that I was not using a useful piece of information in my statistical analysis -- the time sequence of the scores. This makes a significant
Message 1 of 4 , Jan 3, 2005
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I realized that I was not using a useful piece of information in my
statistical analysis -- the time sequence of the scores. This makes a
significant difference, because the scores are highly correlated by
week.

If we calculate the sequence of JDG minus benchmark scores for each
week, we get:

-1 -1 -4 -2 -2

which has an average of -2, SSD=1.22, and SSD/sqrt(N) = 0.55 and

sqrt(N)*AVG/SSD = -3.65

Using t-statistics, this gives a probability of 98.9% (assuming
4 degrees of freedom) that JDG's average score is lower than the
benchmark's average score.

Since the t-statistic for one-tail 0.975 and 4 degrees of freedom is
2.78, we can also say that we are 95% confident that JDG's score trails
the benchmarks score by a value between -3.5 and -0.5.

If we reverse JDG's "upset special", then JDG's score is almost as high
as the benchmark's, although still slightly behind.

On Mon, Jan 03, 2005 at 07:01:35AM -0500, Erik Reuter wrote:
>
> Both JDG and the benchmark went negative for week 17, with JDG again
> trailing the benchmark by -2. The benchmark totaled -2 (6-8--2) and JDG
> -4 (6-10).
>
> For the 5 games I tracked this season JDG trailed the benchmark by a
> cumulative -10. Benchmark scored +26 (47-21--12) and JDG scored +16
> (48-32).
>
> >From these results, you might think that JDG's scores are significantly
> worse than the benchmark, but statistically there is no significant
> difference between the benchmark score and JDG's score after 5 games.
>
> The benchmark averaged +5.2 with a 95% confidence range of +1.2 to
> +9.2, so statistically the benchmark is quite likely to have a positive
> average score. JDG has an average of +3.2 with a 95% confidence range
> of -1.3 to +7.7, so we cannot say with confidence that JDG's average
> is above zero.
>
> Since the 95% confidence ranges of benchmark and JDG overlap, we
> also cannot say with confidence that JDG's average is worse than the
> benchmark's (perhaps if we tracked the scores for an entire season, but
> I'm not interested enough to do that...)
>
> week 17:
> -2 benchmark 6-8--2
> -4 JDG 6-10
>
> cumulative week 13-17:
> +26 benchmark 47-21--12
> +16 JDG 48-32 (* 1-4 *)
>
> Recap AVG SD SD/sqrt(N)
> Benchmark: +7 +9 +4 +8 -2 5.2 4.44 1.99
> JDG: +6 +8 +0 +6 -4 3.2 5.02 2.24
>
> ***
>
> Week 17 Benchmark favorites:
> + Arizona+3 (Tampa Bay)
> + Baltimore+11 (Miami)
> - Buffalo+9 (Pittsburgh)
> - Carolina+7.5 (New Orleans)
> - Chicago+3 (Green Bay)
> + Denver+8.5 (Indianapolis)
> - Detroit+3 (Tennessee)
> - Houston+10 (Cleveland)
> - Kansas City+3 (San Diego)
> - Minnesota+4 (Washington)
> + New England+13.5 (San Francisco)
> - NY Jets+3.5 (St Louis)
> + Seattle+5.5 (Atlanta)
>
> Week 17 Benchmark abstain:
> NY Giants+2.5 (Dallas)
> Oakland (Jacksonville)
>
> ------------------------------
>
>
> JDG picks week 17:
> - Tampa Bay (Arizona)
> + Baltimore (Miami)
> - Buffalo (Pittsburgh)
> - Carolina (New Orleans)
> - Chicago (Green Bay)
> - Indianapolis* (Denver)
> + Tennessee (Detroit)
> - Houston (Cleveland)
> - Kansas City (San Diego)
> - Minnesota (Washington)
> + New England (San Francisco)
> + St. Louis (NY Jets)
> + Seattle (Atlanta)
> - Dallas (NY Giants)
> + Jacksonville (Oakland)
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l

--
Erik Reuter http://www.erikreuter.net/
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