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Week 17 NFL Picks

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  • John D. Giorgis
    As a relatively disappointing season of picks draws to a close, I went 11-5 last week to pull to 143-113 (.559) on the season. That s only 16 games behind
    Message 1 of 4 , Dec 30, 2004
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      As a relatively disappointing season of picks draws to a close, I went 11-5
      last week to pull to 143-113 (.559) on the season. That's only 16 games
      behind my Dad, who has managed a very impressive 159 - 97 (.621) for the
      year!

      The Upset Special, meanwhile, suffered a heartbreaking loss, with the rest
      of the Manning family, at the wild-and-crazy finish of the Bengals game
      last week to drop to 6-10 on the year.

      There are only two games between teams with something to play for this
      week, so there won't be much to say....

      I like the PHILADELPHIA backups to win at home vs. Cincinnati.

      BUFFALO will do everything in their power to make the playoffs, and wallop
      the injury-riddled and 1st-seed-clinched Steelers.

      CHICAGO will upend Green Bay at home.

      MINNESOTA will not repeat last year's debace in the desert in the nation's
      capitol this year, as Washington is just simply punchless without Clinton
      Portis.

      I like TENNESSEE at home over the Lion, the 4-12 Titans might even have
      been playoff contenders in the NFC this year.

      CAROLINA will win the game of the week over the Saints, who have been on a
      mildly surprising run lately.

      There is no way that BALTIMORE will lose at home to Miami with even a hint
      of the playoffs on the line.

      Something is wrong with Chad Pennington's arm, and even though there's no
      wind in the Dome, I think that Marc Bulger and company will provide the
      slight edge to give ST. LOUIS the win over the Jets in the other good game
      of the week.

      Cleveland will run for the bus in HOUSTON.

      San Francisco looked so bad last week, I think that NEW ENGLAND's practice
      squad could beat them by 14 points.

      TAMPA BAY on the road in Arizona - as the Cardinals demonstrated last week,
      they still always find a way to lose.

      SEATTLE will back full reverse into the division title over Atlanta at
      home, but not before Michael Vick makes a game of it.

      KANSAS CITY will play for pride, and a .500 record, and upend the resting
      Chargers in San Diego.

      I think that I believe Tony Dungy when he talks about playing Peyton
      Manning into the 3rd Quarter on Sunday. That could be enough to provide
      INDIANAPOLIS the UPSET SPECIAL over a Denver team that will be hard pressed
      to look as good as they did against Tennesse last week again this year.

      JACKSONVILLE will turn on too little, too late, in Oakland.

      And Bill Parcells will lead DALLAS to leaving the NFL's most ballyhooed
      rookie QB in a long time winless in his rookie season, as the Giants fall
      one last time.

      JDG



      ________________________________________________________
      John D. Giorgis - jxg9@...
      "We have one country, one Constitution, and one future that binds us."
      -George W. Bush, 11/3/2004
      ________________________________________________________


      _______________________________________________
      http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
    • Erik Reuter
      cumulative week 13-16: +28 benchmark 41-13--10 +20 JDG 42-22 (* 1-3 *) *** Week 17 Benchmark favorites: Arizona+3 (Tampa Bay) Baltimore+11 (Miami) Buffalo+9
      Message 2 of 4 , Dec 31, 2004
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        cumulative week 13-16:
        +28 benchmark 41-13--10
        +20 JDG 42-22 (* 1-3 *)


        ***

        Week 17 Benchmark favorites:
        Arizona+3 (Tampa Bay)
        Baltimore+11 (Miami)
        Buffalo+9 (Pittsburgh)
        Carolina+7.5 (New Orleans)
        Chicago+3 (Green Bay)
        Cincinnati+3 (Philadelphia)
        Denver+8.5 (Indianapolis)
        Detroit+3 (Tennessee)
        Houston+10 (Cleveland)
        Kansas City+3 (San Diego)
        Minnesota+4 (Washington)
        New England+13.5 (San Francisco)
        NY Jets+3.5 (St Louis)
        Seattle+5.5 (Atlanta)

        Week 17 Benchmark abstain:
        NY Giants+2.5 (Dallas)
        Oakland (Jacksonville)

        ------------------------------


        JDG picks week 17:
        Tampa Bay (Arizona)
        Baltimore (Miami)
        Buffalo (Pittsburgh)
        Carolina (New Orleans)
        Chicago (Green Bay)
        Philadelphia (Cincinnati)
        Indianapolis* (Denver)
        Tennessee (Detroit)
        Houston (Cleveland)
        Kansas City (San Diego)
        Minnesota (Washington)
        New England (San Francisco)
        St. Louis (NY Jets)
        Seattle (Atlanta)
        Dallas (NY Giants)
        Jacksonville (Oakland)




        On Fri, Dec 31, 2004 at 12:47:51AM -0500, John D. Giorgis wrote:
        > As a relatively disappointing season of picks draws to a close, I went 11-5
        > last week to pull to 143-113 (.559) on the season. That's only 16 games
        > behind my Dad, who has managed a very impressive 159 - 97 (.621) for the
        > year!
        >
        > The Upset Special, meanwhile, suffered a heartbreaking loss, with the rest
        > of the Manning family, at the wild-and-crazy finish of the Bengals game
        > last week to drop to 6-10 on the year.
        >
        > There are only two games between teams with something to play for this
        > week, so there won't be much to say....
        >
        > I like the PHILADELPHIA backups to win at home vs. Cincinnati.
        >
        > BUFFALO will do everything in their power to make the playoffs, and wallop
        > the injury-riddled and 1st-seed-clinched Steelers.
        >
        > CHICAGO will upend Green Bay at home.
        >
        > MINNESOTA will not repeat last year's debace in the desert in the nation's
        > capitol this year, as Washington is just simply punchless without Clinton
        > Portis.
        >
        > I like TENNESSEE at home over the Lion, the 4-12 Titans might even have
        > been playoff contenders in the NFC this year.
        >
        > CAROLINA will win the game of the week over the Saints, who have been on a
        > mildly surprising run lately.
        >
        > There is no way that BALTIMORE will lose at home to Miami with even a hint
        > of the playoffs on the line.
        >
        > Something is wrong with Chad Pennington's arm, and even though there's no
        > wind in the Dome, I think that Marc Bulger and company will provide the
        > slight edge to give ST. LOUIS the win over the Jets in the other good game
        > of the week.
        >
        > Cleveland will run for the bus in HOUSTON.
        >
        > San Francisco looked so bad last week, I think that NEW ENGLAND's practice
        > squad could beat them by 14 points.
        >
        > TAMPA BAY on the road in Arizona - as the Cardinals demonstrated last week,
        > they still always find a way to lose.
        >
        > SEATTLE will back full reverse into the division title over Atlanta at
        > home, but not before Michael Vick makes a game of it.
        >
        > KANSAS CITY will play for pride, and a .500 record, and upend the resting
        > Chargers in San Diego.
        >
        > I think that I believe Tony Dungy when he talks about playing Peyton
        > Manning into the 3rd Quarter on Sunday. That could be enough to provide
        > INDIANAPOLIS the UPSET SPECIAL over a Denver team that will be hard pressed
        > to look as good as they did against Tennesse last week again this year.
        >
        > JACKSONVILLE will turn on too little, too late, in Oakland.
        >
        > And Bill Parcells will lead DALLAS to leaving the NFL's most ballyhooed
        > rookie QB in a long time winless in his rookie season, as the Giants fall
        > one last time.
        >
        > JDG
        >
        >
        >
        > ________________________________________________________
        > John D. Giorgis - jxg9@...
        > "We have one country, one Constitution, and one future that binds us."
        > -George W. Bush, 11/3/2004
        > ________________________________________________________
        >
        >
        > _______________________________________________
        > http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l

        --
        Erik Reuter http://www.erikreuter.net/
        _______________________________________________
        http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
      • Erik Reuter
        Both JDG and the benchmark went negative for week 17, with JDG again trailing the benchmark by -2. The benchmark totaled -2 (6-8--2) and JDG -4 (6-10). For the
        Message 3 of 4 , Jan 3, 2005
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          Both JDG and the benchmark went negative for week 17, with JDG again
          trailing the benchmark by -2. The benchmark totaled -2 (6-8--2) and JDG
          -4 (6-10).

          For the 5 games I tracked this season JDG trailed the benchmark by a
          cumulative -10. Benchmark scored +26 (47-21--12) and JDG scored +16
          (48-32).

          >From these results, you might think that JDG's scores are significantly
          worse than the benchmark, but statistically there is no significant
          difference between the benchmark score and JDG's score after 5 games.

          The benchmark averaged +5.2 with a 95% confidence range of +1.2 to
          +9.2, so statistically the benchmark is quite likely to have a positive
          average score. JDG has an average of +3.2 with a 95% confidence range
          of -1.3 to +7.7, so we cannot say with confidence that JDG's average
          is above zero.

          Since the 95% confidence ranges of benchmark and JDG overlap, we
          also cannot say with confidence that JDG's average is worse than the
          benchmark's (perhaps if we tracked the scores for an entire season, but
          I'm not interested enough to do that...)

          week 17:
          -2 benchmark 6-8--2
          -4 JDG 6-10

          cumulative week 13-17:
          +26 benchmark 47-21--12
          +16 JDG 48-32 (* 1-4 *)

          Recap AVG SD SD/sqrt(N)
          Benchmark: +7 +9 +4 +8 -2 5.2 4.44 1.99
          JDG: +6 +8 +0 +6 -4 3.2 5.02 2.24

          ***

          Week 17 Benchmark favorites:
          + Arizona+3 (Tampa Bay)
          + Baltimore+11 (Miami)
          - Buffalo+9 (Pittsburgh)
          - Carolina+7.5 (New Orleans)
          - Chicago+3 (Green Bay)
          + Cincinnati+3 (Philadelphia)
          + Denver+8.5 (Indianapolis)
          - Detroit+3 (Tennessee)
          - Houston+10 (Cleveland)
          - Kansas City+3 (San Diego)
          - Minnesota+4 (Washington)
          + New England+13.5 (San Francisco)
          - NY Jets+3.5 (St Louis)
          + Seattle+5.5 (Atlanta)

          Week 17 Benchmark abstain:
          NY Giants+2.5 (Dallas)
          Oakland (Jacksonville)

          ------------------------------


          JDG picks week 17:
          - Tampa Bay (Arizona)
          + Baltimore (Miami)
          - Buffalo (Pittsburgh)
          - Carolina (New Orleans)
          - Chicago (Green Bay)
          - Philadelphia (Cincinnati)
          - Indianapolis* (Denver)
          + Tennessee (Detroit)
          - Houston (Cleveland)
          - Kansas City (San Diego)
          - Minnesota (Washington)
          + New England (San Francisco)
          + St. Louis (NY Jets)
          + Seattle (Atlanta)
          - Dallas (NY Giants)
          + Jacksonville (Oakland)


          _______________________________________________
          http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
        • Erik Reuter
          I realized that I was not using a useful piece of information in my statistical analysis -- the time sequence of the scores. This makes a significant
          Message 4 of 4 , Jan 3, 2005
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            I realized that I was not using a useful piece of information in my
            statistical analysis -- the time sequence of the scores. This makes a
            significant difference, because the scores are highly correlated by
            week.

            If we calculate the sequence of JDG minus benchmark scores for each
            week, we get:

            -1 -1 -4 -2 -2

            which has an average of -2, SSD=1.22, and SSD/sqrt(N) = 0.55 and

            sqrt(N)*AVG/SSD = -3.65

            Using t-statistics, this gives a probability of 98.9% (assuming
            4 degrees of freedom) that JDG's average score is lower than the
            benchmark's average score.

            Since the t-statistic for one-tail 0.975 and 4 degrees of freedom is
            2.78, we can also say that we are 95% confident that JDG's score trails
            the benchmarks score by a value between -3.5 and -0.5.

            If we reverse JDG's "upset special", then JDG's score is almost as high
            as the benchmark's, although still slightly behind.


            On Mon, Jan 03, 2005 at 07:01:35AM -0500, Erik Reuter wrote:
            >
            > Both JDG and the benchmark went negative for week 17, with JDG again
            > trailing the benchmark by -2. The benchmark totaled -2 (6-8--2) and JDG
            > -4 (6-10).
            >
            > For the 5 games I tracked this season JDG trailed the benchmark by a
            > cumulative -10. Benchmark scored +26 (47-21--12) and JDG scored +16
            > (48-32).
            >
            > >From these results, you might think that JDG's scores are significantly
            > worse than the benchmark, but statistically there is no significant
            > difference between the benchmark score and JDG's score after 5 games.
            >
            > The benchmark averaged +5.2 with a 95% confidence range of +1.2 to
            > +9.2, so statistically the benchmark is quite likely to have a positive
            > average score. JDG has an average of +3.2 with a 95% confidence range
            > of -1.3 to +7.7, so we cannot say with confidence that JDG's average
            > is above zero.
            >
            > Since the 95% confidence ranges of benchmark and JDG overlap, we
            > also cannot say with confidence that JDG's average is worse than the
            > benchmark's (perhaps if we tracked the scores for an entire season, but
            > I'm not interested enough to do that...)
            >
            > week 17:
            > -2 benchmark 6-8--2
            > -4 JDG 6-10
            >
            > cumulative week 13-17:
            > +26 benchmark 47-21--12
            > +16 JDG 48-32 (* 1-4 *)
            >
            > Recap AVG SD SD/sqrt(N)
            > Benchmark: +7 +9 +4 +8 -2 5.2 4.44 1.99
            > JDG: +6 +8 +0 +6 -4 3.2 5.02 2.24
            >
            > ***
            >
            > Week 17 Benchmark favorites:
            > + Arizona+3 (Tampa Bay)
            > + Baltimore+11 (Miami)
            > - Buffalo+9 (Pittsburgh)
            > - Carolina+7.5 (New Orleans)
            > - Chicago+3 (Green Bay)
            > + Cincinnati+3 (Philadelphia)
            > + Denver+8.5 (Indianapolis)
            > - Detroit+3 (Tennessee)
            > - Houston+10 (Cleveland)
            > - Kansas City+3 (San Diego)
            > - Minnesota+4 (Washington)
            > + New England+13.5 (San Francisco)
            > - NY Jets+3.5 (St Louis)
            > + Seattle+5.5 (Atlanta)
            >
            > Week 17 Benchmark abstain:
            > NY Giants+2.5 (Dallas)
            > Oakland (Jacksonville)
            >
            > ------------------------------
            >
            >
            > JDG picks week 17:
            > - Tampa Bay (Arizona)
            > + Baltimore (Miami)
            > - Buffalo (Pittsburgh)
            > - Carolina (New Orleans)
            > - Chicago (Green Bay)
            > - Philadelphia (Cincinnati)
            > - Indianapolis* (Denver)
            > + Tennessee (Detroit)
            > - Houston (Cleveland)
            > - Kansas City (San Diego)
            > - Minnesota (Washington)
            > + New England (San Francisco)
            > + St. Louis (NY Jets)
            > + Seattle (Atlanta)
            > - Dallas (NY Giants)
            > + Jacksonville (Oakland)
            >
            >
            > _______________________________________________
            > http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l

            --
            Erik Reuter http://www.erikreuter.net/
            _______________________________________________
            http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
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