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RE: The Next Superpower Re: AIDs in Africa

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  • JDG
    ... Well, I think that a Pakistan-Kashmir crisis is reasonably easy to imagine - although still very, very, unlikely at this point. I imagine it would
    Message 1 of 2 , Oct 2, 2004
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      At 05:07 PM 8/31/2004 +0530 Ritu wrote:
      >> In terms of China running into potential instability
      >> vis-a-vis a Civil War or Taiwan, the risks of this strike me
      >> as on balance only marginally greater than the potential
      >> risks of India running into instability
      >> vis-a-vis a Civil War of their own, or else a
      >> Pakistan-Kashmir crisis.
      >
      >What would a Pakistan-Kashmir crisis entail, and what would drive India
      >to civil war?
      >I'd like to hear more. :)

      Well, I think that a Pakistan-Kashmir crisis is reasonably easy to imagine
      - although still very, very, unlikely at this point. I imagine it would
      involve some sort of escalation in terrorist attacks across the border,
      India losing confidence that whatever government is in Pakistan has any
      ability at all to control them, and India therfore concluding that the
      benefits to be gained by a cross-border incursion to wipe out terrorist
      training camps offset the risks of such an incursion.

      As for a Civil War, that again is in the realm of the highly unlikely - but
      this was a discussion of the "next superpower" after all, which is itself
      highly unlikely in the near to medium term. Anyhow, I think that Civil
      War is always something of a risk for a country as poor and diverse as
      India is. This will become especially true if some region of the country,
      say the southeast or the northeast begins to feel that it is being left
      behind by development, and that they themselves lack sufficient voting
      weight to redress their greivances through republican processes.

      Overall, I think that the risks of a war in Taiwan and a war in Kashmir are
      about roughly equal. Although China is significantly more militaristic,
      China has to calculate that overt agression against Taiwan would spark
      American involvement, which would, of course, be disastrous. There isn't
      quite the same risk for some kind of cross-border counter-terrorist
      operation in Pakistan, which offsets the fact that the Indian government is
      far less likely to resort to the use of force in such a situation.

      As for a Civil War, I definitely think that the inequality, militarism, and
      totalitarianism of the Chinese State do make a Civil War much more likely
      in China than in India.

      JDG

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    • Alberto Monteiro
      ... /me too. And the current oil crisis is specially critic to China - which some Machievellic minds think is the _whole_ purpose of Bush s failure to peacify
      Message 2 of 2 , Oct 3, 2004
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        JDG wrote:
        >
        > As for a Civil War, I definitely think that the inequality, militarism, and
        > totalitarianism of the Chinese State do make a Civil War much more likely
        > in China than in India.
        >
        /me too.

        And the current oil crisis is specially critic to China - which some
        Machievellic minds think is the _whole_ purpose of Bush's failure
        to peacify Iraq.

        Alberto Monteiro the paranoid

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