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Re: Debate

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  • Martin Lewis
    On Thu, 30 Sep 2004 21:15:16 -0700 (PDT), Gautam Mukunda ... Is this the purely anecdotal consensus that ignores all the polls? Martin
    Message 1 of 19 , Oct 1, 2004
      On Thu, 30 Sep 2004 21:15:16 -0700 (PDT), Gautam Mukunda
      <ulysses02143@...> wrote:

      > The consensus seems to be a draw (apparently a Kerry
      > campaign staffer was caught saying this on an open
      > mike...oops). Which is bad news for Kerry - he needs
      > to score a knockout.

      Is this the purely anecdotal consensus that ignores all the polls?

      Martin
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    • Gautam Mukunda
      ... He _has to be_ lying about allies, Doug. That s the math. With the exception of India - which ain t coming - there is not a single country in the world
      Message 2 of 19 , Oct 1, 2004
        --- Doug Pensinger <brighto@...> wrote:
        > I don't think Kerry is lying about involving more
        > allies, and I think that
        > the way Bush has poisoned our relations with many of
        > them could be
        > assuaged by a changed in leadership. I agree with
        > your other points, but I
        > think that Kerry has gone a long way to prove to us
        > that he is
        > presidential material.
        >
        > --
        > Doug

        He _has to be_ lying about allies, Doug. That's the
        math. With the exception of India - which ain't
        coming - there is not a single country in the world
        that we would want in Iraq (we don't, for example,
        want Chinese or Russian troops there, not that they're
        coming) that has troops available to put them there.
        If I know that, Kerry knows it. So when I mean he's
        lying about sharing the burden in Iraq, I mean that
        he's lying in the same way he'd be lying if he
        promised he would run a two minute mile the day he got
        sworn in. It's not happening, because it's not
        possible. There's no one out there who has the
        ability to do what he promises, whether or not he
        speaks French.

        =====
        Gautam Mukunda
        ulysses02143@...
        "Freedom is not free"
        http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com



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      • John D. Giorgis
        ... Both of you two need to stop being quite so foolish. Since when did a 5-6 point lead in the polls on October 1st become insurmontable? And since when did
        Message 3 of 19 , Oct 1, 2004
          At 09:08 PM 9/30/2004 -0700 Damon Agretto wrote:
          >> Thank goodness, I think we've still got a fighting
          >> chance.
          >
          >Have to say I'm not quite as confident... :(

          Both of you two need to stop being quite so foolish.

          Since when did a 5-6 point lead in the polls on October 1st become
          insurmontable?

          And since when did Bush become so silver-tongued that Democrats can
          consider him to be such a particularly tough debater? Let's face it, if
          Gore doesn't score an own-goal last year with his gratuitous and insulting
          sighing, he wins those debates hands-down..... and given the 537-vote
          margin of the election, that could have been enough to win.

          Don't get me wrong, I am standing by my original prediction for this
          election - but all this talk about how Kerry is on life support is wholly a
          product of an over-satured news market that feels the need to make
          definitive pronouncements about *everything*.

          (As an aside, Gore was considered the winner of the debate in those polls
          four years ago too.... but I think that Gautam is right, and that the
          "storyline" coming out of the debate seems to be that this was one of the
          best debates ever, and was either a draw to a slight Kerry win (but not a
          big enough win to alter the dynamics of the race.))

          But anyhow, C'mon, 5-6 points is so insurmountable? And what evidence is
          out there that Ohio or Florida has suddenly become unwinnable for the
          Democrats?

          On the other hand, if y'all are ready to give up, I'd be happy to have the
          Republicans accept your surrender. ;-)

          JDG
          _______________________________________________________
          John D. Giorgis - jxg9@...
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          it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03

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        • Damon Agretto
          John, if you recall, I have been predicting a Kerry loss since before the debates...LONG before... Damon ... Damon Agretto dcaa@rcn.com Qui desiderat pacem,
          Message 4 of 19 , Oct 1, 2004
            John, if you recall, I have been predicting a Kerry
            loss since before the debates...LONG before...

            Damon

            =====
            ------------------------------------------------------------
            Damon Agretto
            dcaa@...
            "Qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum."
            http://www.geocities.com/garrand.geo/index.html
            Now Building: Legends Aussie Centurion Mk.5/1
            ------------------------------------------------------------



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          • John D. Giorgis
            ... As have, I. In fact, I have been predicting a big Kerry loss. There s a difference, however, between predicting a big loss, and saying that he has no
            Message 5 of 19 , Oct 1, 2004
              At 05:47 AM 10/1/2004 -0700, Damon Agretto wrote:
              >John, if you recall, I have been predicting a Kerry
              >loss since before the debates...LONG before...

              As have, I. In fact, I have been predicting a big Kerry loss.

              There's a difference, however, between predicting a big loss, and saying
              that he has no chance.

              JDG
              _______________________________________________________
              John D. Giorgis - jxg9@...
              "The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world,
              it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03

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            • Alberto Monteiro
              ... I did! But it didn t change my vote, because the alternatives to Cesar Maia are even worse than him. Alberto Monteiro wtf is he talking about?
              Message 6 of 19 , Oct 1, 2004
                Doug Pensinger wrote:
                >
                > How many watched tonight?
                >
                I did! But it didn't change my vote, because the alternatives
                to Cesar Maia are even worse than him.

                Alberto Monteiro "wtf is he talking about?"

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              • Gautam Mukunda
                ... Apparently - the most recent polls have Kerry winning the debate but (at least the ones I ve seen) not making up any ground in the actual polls. I ve been
                Message 7 of 19 , Oct 1, 2004
                  --- Martin Lewis <martin.lewis@...> wrote:
                  > Is this the purely anecdotal consensus that ignores
                  > all the polls?
                  >
                  > Martin

                  Apparently - the most recent polls have Kerry winning
                  the debate but (at least the ones I've seen) not
                  making up any ground in the actual polls. I've been a
                  little distracted, so I'm certainly not as informed as
                  I'd like to be. We won't really know until about 72
                  hours after the debate, when the first round of
                  spinning is over.

                  =====
                  Gautam Mukunda
                  ulysses02143@...
                  "Freedom is not free"
                  http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com



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                • Doug Pensinger
                  ... What, you don t like Crivella¹? Sorry, Alberto, I shouldn t assume that our international members are aware of our political perturbations. -- Doug ¹The
                  Message 8 of 19 , Oct 1, 2004
                    Alberto wrote:

                    > Doug Pensinger wrote:
                    >>
                    >> How many watched tonight?
                    >>
                    > I did! But it didn't change my vote, because the alternatives
                    > to Cesar Maia are even worse than him.
                    >
                    > Alberto Monteiro "wtf is he talking about?"

                    What, you don't like Crivella¹?

                    Sorry, Alberto, I shouldn't assume that our international members are
                    aware of our political perturbations.

                    --
                    Doug
                    ¹The net is a wonderful tool, isn't it?
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                  • Dave Land
                    ... Why would anybody vode for him? Recently, Crivella accused Maia of being an old man (he s 60) and complained that he s already had three terms. Maybe
                    Message 9 of 19 , Oct 1, 2004
                      On Oct 1, 2004, at 8:55 PM, Doug Pensinger wrote:

                      > Alberto wrote:
                      >
                      >> Doug Pensinger wrote:
                      >>>
                      >>> How many watched tonight?
                      >>>
                      >> I did! But it didn't change my vote, because the alternatives
                      >> to Cesar Maia are even worse than him.
                      >>
                      >> Alberto Monteiro "wtf is he talking about?"
                      >
                      > What, you don't like Crivella¹?

                      Why would anybody vode for him? Recently, Crivella accused Maia of
                      being an old man (he's 60) and complained that he's already had three
                      terms. Maybe people /like/ Maia...

                      Then again, maybe I spend too much time on Google.

                      Dave

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                    • Alberto Monteiro
                      ... No, of course not. Imagine Bin Laden allied to the executives of Enron and Worldcom. ... But your political perturbations usually affect all the world.
                      Message 10 of 19 , Oct 2, 2004
                        Doug Pensinger wrote:
                        >
                        >> I did! But it didn't change my vote, because the alternatives
                        >> to Cesar Maia are even worse than him.
                        >
                        > What, you don't like Crivella¹?
                        >
                        :-))))))))))))))

                        No, of course not. Imagine Bin Laden allied to the executives of Enron and
                        Worldcom.

                        > Sorry, Alberto, I shouldn't assume that our international members
                        > are aware of our political perturbations.
                        >
                        But your political perturbations usually affect all the world. Considering
                        that I am now working at an oil company, and that I get a yearly bonus
                        that _increases_ with the price of oil, I would like that the USA chose
                        a president that would _destabilize_ all other countries that produce
                        oil.

                        Until now, Bush has been an excellent choice, but maybe Kerry can
                        blow things even more than him [say, by taking off USA troops from
                        SA and allowing a shi'a revolution to swap all Persian Gulf :-)]

                        Alberto Monteiro

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                      • John D. Giorgis
                        ... As Gautam said, which allies would those be? And how many troops do you think that Kerry will get them to send? The UK, Australia, Italy, Japan, South
                        Message 11 of 19 , Oct 2, 2004
                          At 10:22 PM 9/30/2004 -0700 Doug Pensinger wrote:
                          >I don't think Kerry is lying about involving more allies, and I think that
                          >the way Bush has poisoned our relations with many of them could be
                          >assuaged by a changed in leadership

                          As Gautam said, which allies would those be? And how many troops do you
                          think that Kerry will get them to send?

                          The UK, Australia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Poland, Denmark, Czech
                          Republic, Hungary, and Portugal are already supporting us there. The
                          main opposition parties of Spain and Germany also already support us. And
                          indeed, NATO has already relieved a number of US troops in Afghanistan and
                          the EU has relieved a number of US troops in Kosovo.

                          JDG
                          _______________________________________________________
                          John D. Giorgis - jxg9@...
                          "The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world,
                          it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03

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                        • Russell Chapman
                          ... Well, I can guess that there were more than for ours... The Great Debate between our 2 aspiring leaders was out-rated by Australian Idol... Who won ours
                          Message 12 of 19 , Oct 3, 2004
                            Doug Pensinger wrote:
                            > How many watched tonight?

                            Well, I can guess that there were more than for ours...
                            The "Great Debate" between our 2 aspiring leaders was out-rated by
                            Australian Idol...
                            Who won ours depended on which paper you read the next day.

                            At least our election will be over in a week's time, and we can all get
                            back to a normal life...

                            Cheers
                            Russell C.

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                          • John D. Giorgis
                            ... In the United States, all the major TV networks have voluntarily agreed not to show major entertainment events at the same time as any of the four debates.
                            Message 13 of 19 , Oct 3, 2004
                              At 10:08 PM 10/3/2004 +1000 Russell Chapman wrote:
                              >Doug Pensinger wrote:
                              >> How many watched tonight?
                              >
                              >Well, I can guess that there were more than for ours...
                              >The "Great Debate" between our 2 aspiring leaders was out-rated by
                              >Australian Idol...

                              In the United States, all the major TV networks have voluntarily agreed not
                              to show major entertainment events at the same time as any of the four
                              debates.

                              JDG
                              _______________________________________________________
                              John D. Giorgis - jxg9@...
                              "The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world,
                              it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03

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                            • Dan Minette
                              ... From: Gautam Mukunda To: Killer Bs Discussion Sent: Friday, October 01, 2004 4:35 PM Subject: Re: Debate
                              Message 14 of 19 , Oct 4, 2004
                                ----- Original Message -----
                                From: "Gautam Mukunda" <ulysses02143@...>
                                To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <brin-l@...>
                                Sent: Friday, October 01, 2004 4:35 PM
                                Subject: Re: Debate

                                > Apparently - the most recent polls have Kerry winning
                                > the debate but (at least the ones I've seen) not
                                > making up any ground in the actual polls. I've been a
                                > little distracted, so I'm certainly not as informed as
                                > I'd like to be. We won't really know until about 72
                                > hours after the debate, when the first round of
                                > spinning is over.

                                It's now a bit over 72 hours, and the results seem to be that Kerry has
                                pulled from about 6 points down into a tie.

                                Dan M.


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                              • John D. Giorgis
                                ... I m very curious as to what tonight s ABC News/Wash Post will show for that reason. I don t put much stock in the Time or Newsweek polls that were out
                                Message 15 of 19 , Oct 4, 2004
                                  At 11:18 AM 10/4/2004 -0500 Dan Minette wrote:
                                  >It's now a bit over 72 hours, and the results seem to be that Kerry has
                                  >pulled from about 6 points down into a tie.

                                  I'm very curious as to what tonight's ABC News/Wash Post will show for that
                                  reason. I don't put much stock in the Time or Newsweek polls that were
                                  out this weekend, and the Gallup poll - while one of the best the week
                                  before an election, is notorious for its exaggerated swings in the leadup
                                  months. Time and Newsweek polls, which have to poll earlier due to their
                                  publication schedules, also were the only ones to show a "bounce" following
                                  the Democratic National Convention. In other words, all the polls we have
                                  seen so far use methodologies that tend to produce swing, so these results
                                  are hardly unexpected. While Rasmussen showed Bush +3, I don't put much
                                  stock in that poll either, as the robot-calling method remains untested.

                                  Unfortunately tonights ABC/Wash Post poll is a tracking poll, so isn't
                                  necessarily comparable to their earlier results. I'm still very
                                  interested, just since there isn't much else to go on.

                                  JDG

                                  _______________________________________________________
                                  John D. Giorgis - jxg9@...
                                  "The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world,
                                  it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03

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