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Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years?

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  • Nick Arnett
    ... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html As if Things Weren t Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.In Moscow, Igor Panarin s
    Message 1 of 96 , Jan 2, 2009
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      >From the Wall Street Journal:
      http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

      As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.In
      Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates'
      in 2010
      Excerpt:

      He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts,
      he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will
      provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough,
      he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government
      and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a
      civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and
      foreign powers will move in.

      California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian
      Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will
      be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to
      Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will
      be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada
      will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North
      American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or
      China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
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    • Dan M
      ... You know, the one that Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Weatherford, Pathfinder, Phoenix, Ryan, Tucker, Great Guns Logging, and a number of other
      Message 96 of 96 , Jan 23, 2009
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        > -----Original Message-----
        > From: brin-l-bounces@... [mailto:brin-l-bounces@...] On
        > Behalf Of Chris Frandsen
        > Sent: Friday, January 23, 2009 7:56 PM
        > To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion
        > Subject: Re: Which oil patch?
        >
        > Which oil patch are you talking about?

        You know, the one that Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Weatherford,
        Pathfinder, Phoenix, Ryan, Tucker, Great Guns Logging, and a number of other
        smaller wireline and MWD companies log in.

        >Offshore drilling is not feasible at the 60-80 dollar range
        >as was proven by the fact that over 66 million acres under lease have not
        >been drilled.

        When oil was $9.80/barrel back in '98, I developed tools that were running
        offshore on oil rigs. I know folks who had to bid projects, and who were
        told what range the field had to make money at. For example, back in '00,
        when prices went back over $20 barrel, any new field had to be justified at
        $15/barrel. And, a number of them were offshore.

        >I believe the last
        > dry hole offshore in Alaska cost $150 million.

        If it was a rank wildcat, that's possible. But, the US has been developing
        offshore fields for longer than I've been in the business (25+ years).

        >My wife's small share
        > of oil rights in west Texas were not opened up until we hit the 80+
        > range and at least one of those wells was depleted in six months.


        That's a real old field. In traditional Texas fields, yields are low.
        Reopening old wells is a iffy business. Once a well is shut in, it tends to
        restart at a much lower production rate and be much easier to go dry
        quickly.


        > Can we agree that the price of oil is being manipulated?

        There is no data that suggest that. The biggest player in the marker (OPEC
        at 40% market share) has watched helplessly as oil prices hit the floor
        several times during supply gluts. The oil field has had downturns that no
        other industry I'm familiar with has. I've been through 50%, 80% and 50%
        layoffs during three downturns.

        It's true that there are fields that are profitable at $150/barrel that are
        not profitable at $80/barrel. But, anyone who has lived through the ups and
        downs of oil prices over the last 25 years knows that spikes are followed by
        troughs. Remember, it takes a long time to develop a field. From seismic
        to a developed field can take 10 years. No one in their right mind would
        authorize a field that is only profitable if the latest spike holds. That's
        stupid beyond belief.

        Dan M.

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