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Re: [bolger] Trouble Brewing in the N.E.

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  • David Ryan
    ... One thing to keep in mind is that prudence dictates they show the worst likely scenario. Ships use these graphics to make navigational decisions; too
    Message 1 of 8 , Mar 2, 2001
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      >David,
      > Wow, that sure makes a guy feel good that he isn't trying to cross
      >the pond at the moment.
      >Stan, Snow Goose

      One thing to keep in mind is that prudence dictates they show the
      worst likely scenario. Ships use these graphics to make navigational
      decisions; too conservative and time is lost, too lax and lives may
      be.

      I my experience, you can make book on these charts for anything out
      to 72 hours. Beyond that they defiantly have a certain "boy who cried
      wolf" factor. I've cancelled more than one meeting on the basis of a
      big red spot out 108 hours, only to have it fizzle out.

      However, this one in particular looks like it's for real. It's the
      biggest storm forecast I've seen all Winter, and all the elements
      look like they're in place. With any luck, Turtle Cove (just west of
      the Montauk Lighthouse,) will be head high or better with offshore
      winds!

      YIBB,

      David

      CRUMBLING EMPIRE PRODUCTIONS
      134 West 26th St. 12th Floor
      New York, New York 10001
      http://www.crumblingempire.com
      (212) 247-0296
    • djost@ma.ultranet.com
      I just read the NOAA 60-70 hour forecast for the mid-atlantic and they are predicting a storm on the magnitude of the Januarry 1966 one, or close to the Feb
      Message 2 of 8 , Mar 2, 2001
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        I just read the NOAA 60-70 hour forecast for the mid-atlantic and they
        are predicting a storm on the magnitude of the Januarry 1966 one, or
        close to the Feb 1978 storm! That is an impressive analogy.
        It is still a good 12 hours out from the grocery run, but this
        time I'm getting my supplies in advance! I can't stand it when I run
        out of Epoxy in the middle of a snowstorm and the stores are all sold
        out.
        BTW, check out the price on East System Epoxy from Noah's
        boatbuilders supply in Buffalo New York. They should be the official
        Bolger boat supplier!

        David Jost
        "on the way to get batteries, sterno, and spam"
        >
        > One thing to keep in mind is that prudence dictates they show the
        > worst likely scenario. Ships use these graphics to make navigational
        > decisions; too conservative and time is lost, too lax and lives may
        > be.
        >
        > I my experience, you can make book on these charts for anything out
        > to 72 hours. Beyond that they defiantly have a certain "boy who cried
        > wolf" factor. I've cancelled more than one meeting on the basis of a
        > big red spot out 108 hours, only to have it fizzle out.
        >
        > However, this one in particular looks like it's for real. It's the
        > biggest storm forecast I've seen all Winter, and all the elements
        > look like they're in place. With any luck, Turtle Cove (just west of
        > the Montauk Lighthouse,) will be head high or better with offshore
        > winds!
        >
        > YIBB,
        >
        > David
        >
        > CRUMBLING EMPIRE PRODUCTIONS
        > 134 West 26th St. 12th Floor
        > New York, New York 10001
        > http://www.crumblingempire.com
        > (212) 247-0296
      • ellengaest@boatbuilding.com
        David Ryan, I m not too obsessive about the weather(just the seasons,and I m in the wrong one right now!) but always intrigued by BIG climatological
        Message 3 of 8 , Mar 2, 2001
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          David Ryan,
          I'm not too obsessive about the weather(just the seasons,and I'm
          in the wrong one right now!) but always intrigued by BIG
          climatological happenings!My favorite one is a blizzard and the
          bigger they are the better.....a childhood addiction of sorts that
          somehow no longer fits too well with the needs of my favorite hobby.
          The maps sure appear to show something potentially very
          interesting coming up your way!Wish I could be there to see the fury.
          And speaking of furies,you wouldn't happen to know of a site that has
          down-loadable,archived weather maps?In particular,the period from
          October 26,1998 to November 14,1998.Any help in this direction would
          be much appreciated!
          As we say up here,when the wind pipes up,"attache ta tuque"!
          Sincerely,
          Peter Lenihan,on the shores of the St.Lawrence.........



          --- In bolger@y..., David Ryan <david@c...> wrote:
          > FBBB --
          >
          > I don't know how many of my fellow Bolger boat builders are
          obsessive
          > weather watchers, but for those of you who are, there's a mother of
          a
          > Nor'Easter shaping up about 3-4 days out.
          >
        • pvanderw@optonline.net
          ... cried ... Yesterday, I looked at the forecast in the NY Times. It said today would be clear and sunny. In fact, it snowed until noon and was cloudy for the
          Message 4 of 8 , Mar 2, 2001
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            > I my experience, you can make book on these charts for anything out
            > to 72 hours. Beyond that they defiantly have a certain "boy who
            cried
            > wolf" factor.

            Yesterday, I looked at the forecast in the NY Times. It said today
            would be clear and sunny. In fact, it snowed until noon and was
            cloudy for the rest of the day.

            I agree on the 72 hour rule. They often the the 'what' right, but
            the 'when' wrong.

            Peter
          • David Ryan
            ... Trying to surf the east coast will turn you into an amateur meteorologist even faster than it will sent you to the looney bin. In my experience, they ve
            Message 5 of 8 , Mar 2, 2001
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              >> I my experience, you can make book on these charts for anything out
              >> to 72 hours. Beyond that they defiantly have a certain "boy who
              >cried
              >> wolf" factor.
              >
              >Yesterday, I looked at the forecast in the NY Times. It said today
              >would be clear and sunny. In fact, it snowed until noon and was
              >cloudy for the rest of the day.
              >
              >I agree on the 72 hour rule. They often the the 'what' right, but
              >the 'when' wrong.

              Trying to surf the east coast will turn you into an amateur
              meteorologist even faster than it will sent you to the looney bin.

              In my experience, they've got a pretty good 72 hour line on the
              winter weather pattern. If it's Monday and I see what looks to be a
              solid swell setting up for Thursday, consider me booked.

              OTOH: A hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic basin and they can't get a
              solid forecast out 24 hours.

              YIWW,

              d

              CRUMBLING EMPIRE PRODUCTIONS
              134 West 26th St. 12th Floor
              New York, New York 10001
              http://www.crumblingempire.com
              (212) 247-0296
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