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39958Real Good Luck and Real Bad Luck of Aki Basho!

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  • "Jürgen Buder"
    Oct 2, 2013
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      Dear Mensch of the Bench,

      I am really sad that we have just witnessed the first Randomitsukigenous intai in Bench Sumo. In other words, my stupid MCP Standings, in particular the stats pertaining to "bad luck of the basho", were partially responsible for Ganzohnesushi's intai from the game. If there hadn't been this particular piece of stat, he would have simply (and erroneously) thought that he is a terrible Bench player...

      In his last Bench will, Ganzohnesushi explained that he would love to see a cumulated bad luck (and good luck) standings for an entire year. I decided to do this after Kyushu Basho. However, there is a statistical problem: in general, Makuuchi is stronger than Juryo and Makushita, so one needs a higher MCP Score in order to get the same amount of wins. As a consequence, the bad luck (and good luck) standings are always slightly biased. Better players seem to have more bad luck, but in fact their only bad luck is that they play in a tougher division.

      Therefore I devised a system that takes care of that, and in a stroke of genius I call it "real bad luck" (and "real good luck").

      See the standings below if you just want to check whether you were lucky (near the top of the table) or unlucky (near the bottom). By the way, Ganzohnesushi was the unluckiest chap anyway.

      Those who might be interested in the calculation should read this paragraph.
      As the divisions are different in strength, I calculated the median MCP Scores per division (question to the uber-stattos: would you recommend using the arithmetic mean instead?).
      Makuuchi had a median score of 8.297
      Juryo had a median score of 7.214
      Makushita had a median score of 7.029
      In a first step I computed the difference between MCP and Median per person. For instance, Jejima had an MCP Score of 7.674. As he was playing in Makuuchi (median of 8.297), he trailed the Makuuchi median by -0.623 points. This means that he should have had 0.623 wins less than the average Makuuchi player. The average Makuuchi player (like the average player in any other division) should get 7.5 wins. That being said, the expected number of wins for Jejima in Makuuchi would have been 7.5 - 0.623 = 6.877 wins (see the columns below).
      However, he had 11 wins instead, resulting in a difference of 4.123 wins. Voila, this is his RL (Real Luck) Score!

      EW = Expected Wins (based on one's MCP Score, but taking into account one's division)
      AW = Actual Wins
      RL = Real Luck Score

      Pos Shikona EW AW RL
      ====================================
      1 Jejima 6,877 11 4,123
      2 fujiyama 8,269 12 3,731
      3 Fatakiyama 7,428 11 3,572
      4 Furanohana 8,673 12 3,327
      5 Holleshoryu 7,302 10 2,698
      6 Fujisan 6,315 9 2,685
      7 Achiyama 9,466 12 2,534
      8 shimodahito 7,55 10 2,45
      9 Kasamatsuri 9,55 12 2,45
      9 Metzinowaka 8,578 11 2,422
      11 Rubensan 6,792 9 2,208
      12 Leonishiki 7,799 10 2,201
      13 toonoryu 6,814 9 2,186
      14 chabonowaka 5,943 8 2,057
      14 Roundeye 6,102 8 1,898
      14 Gohansazae 8,214 10 1,786
      17 Hokuyutaka 6,286 8 1,714
      18 iwakoko 4,439 6 1,561
      18 Kintamayama 7,495 9 1,505
      20 pandaazuma 7,506 9 1,494
      21 Kitakachiyama 7,551 9 1,449
      22 Gibuten 6,596 8 1,404
      22 Yoohoo 5,673 7 1,327
      24 Tosahayate 5,686 7 1,314
      25 Fuheika 6,707 8 1,293
      26 Rikishimiezi 7,741 9 1,259
      27 Mariohana 7,888 9 1,112
      28 Kintsubasa 7,92 9 1,08
      29 kuroimori 6,926 8 1,074
      29 Frinkanohana 6,945 8 1,055
      31 Kaiomitsuki 8,956 10 1,044
      32 Terarno 8,061 9 0,939
      33 Chimatayama 9,084 10 0,916
      34 chishafuwaku 8,19 9 0,81
      35 Watashi 6,237 7 0,763
      36 Takanorappa 7,398 8 0,602
      37 Kyodaitimu 6,449 7 0,551
      38 sekihiryu 7,455 8 0,545
      39 Oskanohana 7,585 8 0,415
      40 Damimonay 6,596 7 0,404
      41 Heiyu 5,628 6 0,372
      42 Marushiki 5,64 6 0,36
      43 Maguroyama 6,641 7 0,36
      44 Susanoo 8,911 9 0,089
      45 Hakaso 7,933 8 0,067
      46 nomadwolf 5,967 6 0,033
      47 VESHANA 7,977 8 0,023
      48 Gaijingai 8,001 8 -0,001
      49 tokugawa 8,001 8 -0,001
      50 Jakusotsu 9,028 9 -0,028
      51 ScreechingOwl 7,113 7 -0,113
      51 Chocshoporyu 8,136 8 -0,136
      53 mischashimaru 5,203 5 -0,203
      54 Akokoneko 7,258 7 -0,258
      55 Oshirokita 7,286 7 -0,286
      56 Fuseigou 9,342 9 -0,342
      57 Uoichiba 9,37 9 -0,37
      58 Fujiko 5,381 5 -0,381
      58 Wamahada 8,46 8 -0,46
      60 Haidouzo 4,522 4 -0,522
      61 Taka 7,529 7 -0,529
      62 Stowaway 8,538 8 -0,538
      63 Yassier 9,583 9 -0,583
      64 Boltbutthamma 7,731 7 -0,731
      65 Basoyama 6,943 6 -0,943
      65 Bunijiman 6,028 5 -1,028
      67 Hironoumi 6,145 5 -1,145
      68 andonishiki 8,169 7 -1,169
      69 Chisaiyama 6,314 5 -1,314
      70 Robocopthat 6,32 5 -1,32
      71 Sebunshu 8,415 7 -1,415
      72 Gawasukotto 7,449 6 -1,449
      73 Kotononami 6,461 5 -1,461
      74 Sherlockiama 7,522 6 -1,522
      75 Zenjimoto 7,731 6 -1,731
      76 Ruziklao 7,848 6 -1,848
      76 Harumataikai 3,875 2 -1,875
      78 Konosato 7,933 6 -1,933
      79 Pitinosato 6,034 4 -2,034
      80 Norizo 7,068 5 -2,068
      81 tainosen 8,214 6 -2,214
      82 Nekonishiki 8,302 6 -2,302
      83 Aome 6,359 4 -2,359
      84 Doitsuyama 10,443 8 -2,443
      85 Itachi 7,484 5 -2,484
      86 Rowitoro 8,684 6 -2,684
      87 Tsunamiko 8,724 6 -2,724
      88 Randomitsuki 8,81 6 -2,81
      89 Bill 8,162 4 -4,162
      90 Ganzohnesushi 7,477 2 -5,477

      Randomitsuki
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