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Determining reliever vs starter

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  • Wells Oliver
    Anyone have a solid rule of thumb for determining who is a reliever vs starter? Games started = X? IPouts = X? -- Wells Oliver wells@submute.net
    Message 1 of 6 , Jan 13, 2010
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      Anyone have a solid rule of thumb for determining who is a reliever vs starter? Games started >= X? IPouts >= X?

      --
      Wells Oliver
      wells@...
    • Mike Emeigh
      ... For me, a starter is someone with 2/3 of his game appearances as a starter during a season, and with 2/3 of his seasons of at least 20 appearances
      Message 2 of 6 , Jan 13, 2010
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        On Wed, Jan 13, 2010 at 1:38 PM, Wells Oliver wrote:
        >
        >
        >
        > Anyone have a solid rule of thumb for determining who is a reliever vs starter?

        For me, a starter is someone with 2/3 of his game appearances as a
        starter during a season, and with 2/3 of his seasons of at least 20
        appearances qualifying as starter seasons, if I were looking at a
        career - e.g. for Eckersley, I'd be looking at him primarily as a
        reliever, and for Smoltz I'd be looking at him primarily as a starter,
        when looking for other similar pitchers for whatever reason.
        --
        Mike Emeigh
        MWE55inNC@...

        "Our brains, for all their wonders, identify the following four things
        as being very bad for survival: Standing alone, in open territory with
        no place to hide, without a weapon, in front of a large crowd of
        creatures staring at you"

        -- Scott Berkun, about why people fear public speaking
      • Paul Riker
        (g-gs) 2 (or whatever buffer you want to use). This would basically set any pitcher that has pitched in 2 more games than they have started in as a reliever.
        Message 3 of 6 , Jan 13, 2010
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          (g-gs) > 2 (or whatever buffer you want to use). This would basically set any pitcher that has pitched in 2 more games than they have started in as a reliever.

           

          To: baseball-databank@yahoogroups.com
          From: wells@...
          Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2010 12:38:06 -0600
          Subject: [baseball-databank] Determining reliever vs starter

           
          Anyone have a solid rule of thumb for determining who is a reliever vs starter? Games started >= X? IPouts >= X?

          --
          Wells Oliver
          wells@submute. net



          Hotmail: Trusted email with Microsoft’s powerful SPAM protection. Sign up now.
        • Tangotiger
          ... First off, I d use GS/G. Secondly, I d set it so that the total number of IPouts of my starters are 65% of all innings. So, let s see what happens if I
          Message 4 of 6 , Jan 13, 2010
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            > Anyone have a solid rule of thumb for determining who is a reliever vs
            > starter? Games started >= X? IPouts >= X?
            >

            First off, I'd use GS/G.

            Secondly, I'd set it so that the total number of IPouts of my "starters"
            are 65% of all innings.

            So, let's see what happens if I look at 2009. Sum of IPouts is 129816.
            Starters get about 65% of that. So, 84380. Next, sort by GS/G, and sum
            until you get to 84380. 33.3%. Well, that's a nice number.

            Let me try 2008. These are your target numbers: 130073, 84547. And we
            get: 28.6%. Looks like we need a tie-breaker. Ok, 2007: 33.3%. 2006:
            35.3%

            I'll stop there. The average of these 4 is 32.6%.

            So, I'll make that my rule of thumb: if at least one-third of your games
            is as a starter, you classify as a starter. Otherwise, you are a
            reliever. (This of course is based on the idea that you only want two
            buckets.)

            Tom
          • Wells Oliver
            Cool, thanks everyone. A bit of a simplification, but I think I m going with the SQL qualifier: IF(GS/G .3, SP , RP ) AS p That s about right, eh? ... --
            Message 5 of 6 , Jan 13, 2010
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              Cool, thanks everyone. A bit of a simplification, but I think I'm going with the SQL qualifier:

              IF(GS/G > .3, 'SP', 'RP') AS p

              That's about right, eh?

              On Wed, Jan 13, 2010 at 2:21 PM, Tangotiger <tom@...> wrote:
               

              > Anyone have a solid rule of thumb for determining who is a reliever vs
              > starter? Games started >= X? IPouts >= X?
              >

              First off, I'd use GS/G.

              Secondly, I'd set it so that the total number of IPouts of my "starters"
              are 65% of all innings.

              So, let's see what happens if I look at 2009. Sum of IPouts is 129816.
              Starters get about 65% of that. So, 84380. Next, sort by GS/G, and sum
              until you get to 84380. 33.3%. Well, that's a nice number.

              Let me try 2008. These are your target numbers: 130073, 84547. And we
              get: 28.6%. Looks like we need a tie-breaker. Ok, 2007: 33.3%. 2006:
              35.3%

              I'll stop there. The average of these 4 is 32.6%.

              So, I'll make that my rule of thumb: if at least one-third of your games
              is as a starter, you classify as a starter. Otherwise, you are a
              reliever. (This of course is based on the idea that you only want two
              buckets.)

              Tom




              --
              Wells Oliver
              wells@...
            • CTOMARKIN@AOL.COM
              In my pitcher forecasting analysis, I found that trying to classify pitchers as either SP or RP led to sub-optimal results. There were several categories based
              Message 6 of 6 , Jan 14, 2010
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                In my pitcher forecasting analysis, I found that trying to classify pitchers as either SP or RP led to sub-optimal results. There were several categories based on combinations of factors including ip, g, gs, and sv. Pitchers in each of the classification categories regress to different means, so you get significant lift in placing pitchers more precisely.

                So, no rule of thumb emerges from this per se, but the reason you find it challenging to make these assignments is that you may be asking the wrong question.

                Here is a link to the forecasts. Last week I added a searchable forecast database, which I hope people find and enjoy. It displays the pitching categories. You can get more info on the categories by downloading the forecast spreadsheet. At some point I will formally publish some of these findings.

                http://baseballguru.com/bbinside4.html

                Best,
                Craig Tomarkin
                baseballguru.com

                PS - I'm posting a JAPANESE forecast too!


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