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Re: Re: [baseball-databank] Re: Lahman DB and Age Calculation

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  • roca_h@BellSouth.net
    Sean, do you know of any Minor League database such as Baseball-Reference. Many thanks regards Henri
    Message 1 of 24 , Mar 8 7:48 AM
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      Sean, do you know of any Minor League database such as Baseball-Reference.
      Many thanks
      regards
      Henri
      >
      > From: "Sean Forman" <sean-forman@...>
      > Date: 2007/03/08 Thu AM 10:18:18 EST
      > To: baseball-databank@yahoogroups.com
      > Subject: Re: [baseball-databank] Re: Lahman DB and Age Calculation
      >
      > >
      > > Doesn't this assume that the birthrates are even throughout the year?
      > > It could just be that more kids are born in August and September.
      > > You'd probably need to compare those percentages to some census data
      > > to make the argument more convincing.
      > >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      > .
      > >
      >
      > I'm probably butchering the results of the study, but I think the original
      > study was for hockey and they found a similar effect, but between Dec. and
      > Jan. which is when the pee wee hockey cutoff occurs.
      >
      > sean
      >
      >
      > >
      >
      >
      >
      > --
      > --
      > Sincerely,
      > Sean Forman
      >
      > Baseball Stats! http://www.Baseball-Reference.com/
      > SR Blog! http://www.Baseball-Reference.com/blog/
      >
      >
    • Theodore Turocy
      ... There are (currently) no free, generally-available minor league databases. I ve compiled data from 2005 and 2006 (and 1982) at
      Message 2 of 24 , Mar 8 8:08 AM
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        On 3/8/07, roca_h@... <roca_h@...> wrote:

        Sean, do you know of any Minor League database such as Baseball-Reference.





        There are (currently) no free, generally-available minor league databases.  I've compiled data from 2005 and 2006 (and 1982) at

        http://econweb.tamu.edu/turocy/minors

        and have plans to complete 2002-2004 in the near future, time permitting.

        TT
        --
        drarbiter@... - AMDG
      • Sean Forman
        thebaseballcube.com has a lot of recent minor league info. I m hoping to do some work on minor leaguers as well on BR, but it will be awhile. sean ... -- --
        Message 3 of 24 , Mar 8 8:27 AM
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          thebaseballcube.com has a lot of recent minor league info.  I'm hoping to do some work on minor leaguers as well on BR, but it will be awhile.

          sean

          On 3/8/07, roca_h@... <roca_h@...> wrote:

          Sean, do you know of any Minor League database such as Baseball-Reference.
          Many thanks
          regards
          Henri
          >
          > From: "Sean Forman" <sean-forman@...>
          > Date: 2007/03/08 Thu AM 10:18:18 EST
          > To: baseball-databank@yahoogroups.com
          > Subject: Re: [baseball-databank] Re: Lahman DB and Age Calculation
          >
          > >

          > > Doesn't this assume that the birthrates are even throughout the year?
          > > It could just be that more kids are born in August and September.
          > > You'd probably need to compare those percentages to some census data
          > > to make the argument more convincing.
          > >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          > .
          > >
          >
          > I'm probably butchering the results of the study, but I think the original
          > study was for hockey and they found a similar effect, but between Dec. and
          > Jan. which is when the pee wee hockey cutoff occurs.
          >
          > sean
          >
          >
          > >
          >
          >
          >
          > --
          > --
          > Sincerely,
          > Sean Forman
          >
          > Baseball Stats! http://www.Baseball-Reference.com/
          > SR Blog! http://www.Baseball-Reference.com/blog/
          >
          >




          --
          --
          Sincerely,        
          Sean Forman

          Baseball Stats!  http://www.Baseball-Reference.com/
          SR Blog!           http://www.Baseball-Reference.com/blog/
        • Tom Stillman
          I have to agree with this. How many people do you know that were born at the end of September/beginning of October (conceived during the Holidays) and how
          Message 4 of 24 , Mar 8 10:09 AM
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            I have to agree with this. How many people do you
            know that were born at the end of September/beginning
            of October (conceived during the Holidays) and how
            many do you know born toward the middle of November
            (conceived on Valentine's Day)?

            Tom Stillman

            --- Douglas Creager <dcreager@...> wrote:

            > > This isn't necessarily related. There is also
            > some evidence (and I may be misquoting) that players
            > with August and Sept birthdays are more likely to
            > make the majors. Here is a percentage for players
            > born since 1960.
            >
            > Doesn't this assume that the birthrates are even
            > throughout the year?
            > It could just be that more kids are born in August
            > and September.
            > You'd probably need to compare those percentages to
            > some census data
            > to make the argument more convincing.
            >
            > cheers
            > --doug
            >
            > --
            > Douglas Creager
            > DPhil Candidate, Computing
            > Oxford University Computing Lab
            > http://www.softeng.ox.ac.uk/people/Douglas.Creager/
            > <douglas.creager@...>
            >




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          • Tom Stillman
            I agree but would like to add an additional 2 cents. Often we hear about someone being the oldest or youngest to accomplish a certain feat in baseball. In
            Message 5 of 24 , Mar 8 10:18 AM
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              I agree but would like to add an additional 2 cents.
              Often we hear about someone being the "oldest" or
              "youngest" to accomplish a certain feat in baseball.
              In those cases, age is invariably given in years and
              days.

              Tom Stillman

              --- Tangotiger <tangotiger@...> wrote:

              > I just want to reiterate that, in society, only with
              > ages do we not round.
              >
              > If you are 26.99 years old, you are "26". If
              > someone
              > is born on July 2, 1980, then on July 1 2007, he's
              > 26
              > years and 364 days. Really, we should represent it
              > as
              > 26.997.
              >
              > If you have a group of players, you can want guys
              > beween 26.5 and 27.5, so that their average is 27.0
              > years old. And, that means getting everyone born
              > between Jan 1, 1980 and Dec 31, 1980.
              >
              > As you can see, all you need is the year, and
              > therefore, makes the calculation a snap.
              >
              > The current practice was started in the Baseball
              > Abstracts, and shouldn't necessarily be followed.
              >
              > In any case, you can choose any arbitrary date, be
              > it
              > July 1, Apr 1, Oct 1, and it really doesn't matter
              > whatsoever, as long as all players are calculated
              > the
              > same way.
              >
              > Given that, do it the easiest way, and not the
              > complicated way.
              >
              > -- End Soapbox.
              >
              > Tom
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              > --- Tangotiger <tangotiger@...> wrote:
              >
              > > If all you require is an integer for an age, may I
              > > suggest simply doing: yearid - birthyear.
              > >
              > > Who really cares whether the guy was born Jun 30
              > or
              > > Jul 2, or Dec 30 or Jan 2? Whatever you do, it's
              > a
              > > rounded age.
              > >
              > > Tom
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > > --- Charles <chazcreasy1@...> wrote:
              > >
              > > > I've run into the same problem (a week or so ago
              > > > actually). I'm not
              > > > sure what I've done different since, but this
              > > seems
              > > > to work:
              > > >
              > > > SELECT Master.playerID, Pitching.yearID,
              > > > DateDiff("yyyy",DateValue([birthmonth] & '/' &
              > > > [birthday] & '/' &
              > > > [birthyear]),DateValue("07/01/" &
              > > > [Pitching].[yearID])) AS AGE
              > > > FROM [primary position] INNER JOIN (Master INNER
              > > > JOIN Pitching ON
              > > > Master.playerID = Pitching.playerID) ON
              > ([primary
              > > > position].yearID =
              > > > Pitching.yearID) AND ([primary position].teamID
              > =
              > > > Pitching.teamID) AND
              > > > ([primary position].player = Pitching.playerID)
              > > > WHERE (((DateDiff("yyyy",DateValue([birthmonth]
              > &
              > > > '/' & [birthday] &
              > > > '/'
              > > > & [birthyear]),DateValue("07/01/" &
              > > > [Pitching].[yearID])))=26) AND
              > > > ((Master.birthYear) Is Not Null) AND
              > > > ((Master.birthMonth) Is Not Null)
              > > > AND ((Master.birthDay) Is Not Null));
              > > >
              > > > I'm sure there's a cleaner way to do it, but I'm
              > > > pretty certain this
              > > > will work. If you do a search and replace for
              > > > "pitching"->"batting"
              > > > you can get all hitters aged 26.
              > > >
              > > > --- In baseball-databank@yahoogroups.com,
              > > "btibert3"
              > > > <btibert3@...> wrote:
              > > > >
              > > > > I am using the current release of Sean's DB
              > and
              > > I
              > > > am trying to
              > > > > calculate the age for each pitcher with the
              > > > following SQL:
              > > > >
              > > > > SELECT Pitching.playerID, Pitching.yearID,
              > > > DateDiff("yyyy",DateSerial
              > > > >
              > > >
              > >
              >
              ([Master]![birthYear],[Master]![birthMonth],[Master]!
              > > > >
              > [birthDay]),DateSerial([Pitching]![yearID],7,1))
              > > > AS Age
              > > > > FROM Pitching INNER JOIN Master ON
              > > > Pitching.playerID =
              > > > > Master.playerID
              > > > > WHERE
              > > >
              > >
              >
              DateDiff("yyyy",DateSerial([Master]![birthYear],[Master]!
              > > > >
              > > >
              > >
              >
              [birthMonth],[Master]![birthDay]),DateSerial([Pitching]!
              > > > > [yearID],7,1))=26;
              > > > >
              > > > >
              > > > > When I run this, I get a "Data type mismatch
              > in
              > > > the criteria
              > > > > expression" error. I only get this error when
              > I
              > > > try to filter out
              > > > > the performance of a pitcher for a certain
              > age.
              > > > Simply put, when I
              > > > > run the calc as is, it runs fine (seemingly).
              >
              > > > >
              > > > > I am stumped. By no means am I a DBA, but I
              > am
              > > > fairly comfortable
              > > > > with Access and data manipulation.
              > > > >
              > > > > Do I have a corrupt version of Access? Has
              > > anyone
              > > > run into the same
              > > > > problem? Someone have a better way to
              > calculate
              > > > age at run time?
              > > > >
              > > > > Many thanks guys,
              > > > >
              > > > > ~ Brock
              > > > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > >
              > >
              > > ---------------------------------------------
              > > http://www.InsideTheBook.com
              > > The Book--Playing The Percentages In Baseball
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > > -----------------------------------
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              >
              ____________________________________________________________________________________
              > > We won't tell. Get more on shows you hate to love
              > > (and love to hate): Yahoo! TV's Guilty Pleasures
              > > list.
              > > http://tv.yahoo.com/collections/265
              > >
              >
              >
              > ---------------------------------------------
              > http://www.InsideTheBook.com
              > The Book--Playing The Percentages In Baseball
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              === message truncated ===




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            • KJOK
              If someone HAS compiled some minor league stats in electronic form, please let me know, as there is a startup project to try to create a minor league database.
              Message 6 of 24 , Mar 8 1:01 PM
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                If someone HAS compiled some minor league stats in electronic form, please let me know, as there is a startup project to try to create a minor league database.
                 
                THANKS,
                Kevin

                roca_h@... wrote:
                Sean, do you know of any Minor League database such as Baseball-Reference.
                Many thanks
                regards
                Henri
                >
                .



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              • Michael Westbay
                ... So what you re saying is that this is a cultural issue. I have evidence that this may be correct. +-------+---------+ ... +-------+---------+ ...
                Message 7 of 24 , Mar 8 4:19 PM
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                  Sean Forman wrote:

                  > This isn't necessarily related. There is also some evidence (and I may be
                  > misquoting) that players with August and Sept birthdays are more likely to
                  > make the majors. Here is a percentage for players born since 1960.
                  > ...
                  > The speculation is that the July and June kids have to play up with older
                  > kids in little league and the Aug, Sept kids are the oldest kids in the
                  > leagues and get more attention as they are more physically developed. Or
                  > maybe parents are just lying to keep their kids back a year.

                  So what you're saying is that this is a cultural issue. I have evidence
                  that this may be correct.

                  +-------+---------+
                  | Month | Count |
                  +-------+---------+
                  | 1 | 6.1284 |
                  | 2 | 4.4261 |
                  | 3 | 5.3502 |
                  | 4 | 11.1868 |
                  | 5 | 11.3813 |
                  | 6 | 10.7490 |
                  | 7 | 10.4572 |
                  | 8 | 10.0195 |
                  | 9 | 8.2685 |
                  | 10 | 8.5117 |
                  | 11 | 6.3716 |
                  | 12 | 7.1498 |
                  +-------+---------+

                  The above is the percentage of 2056 players in NPB (Nippon Professional
                  Baseball) born in or after 1960. Here the peak is in April and May and
                  steadily goes down from there. The school year in Japan starts in
                  April, so April and May born kids will tend to be the most physically
                  developed in their school years.

                  (Note: I did not filter out foreign players, but August/September borns
                  don't seem to effect the distribution any.)

                  This is an interesting study.


                  --
                  Michael Westbay
                  Writer/System Administrator
                  http://JapaneseBaseball.com
                • Tangotiger
                  -- Sean Forman ... I understand the reason. But if I have 20 players all born between Jan 1, 1980 and Dec 31, 1980, their
                  Message 8 of 24 , Mar 8 4:20 PM
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                    -- Sean Forman <sean-forman@...>
                    wrote:

                    > Tango,
                    >
                    > There is actually a reasonable reason for using July
                    > 1st as the cutoff.
                    > When you do that the player's age is given as the
                    > age they played most of
                    > the year as since July 1st is just about the halfway
                    > point of the season. A
                    >

                    I understand the reason. But if I have 20 players all
                    born between Jan 1, 1980 and Dec 31, 1980, their age,
                    as of July 1, 2007, will be between 26.5 and 27.5.
                    Their average age is therefore 27.0.

                    However, if you use the July 1, 2007 Bill James method
                    as the cutoff, the players aged "27" will be born
                    between July 2, 1979 and July 1, 1980. Those guys are
                    aged 27.00 to 27.99, for an average age of 27.5.

                    Therefore, if you were to list a group of 20 players
                    aged "27" using the Bill James method, they in fact
                    are aged, as a group 27.5 years old.

                    Except for "age", there is no other number that
                    society would floor. All other conventional numbers
                    are rounded.

                    If there were no such thing as a word called "age",
                    season minus birth year is perfectly acceptable. It
                    is simply because we treat an age of 27.99 as "27" are
                    we having even having this discussion.

                    Tom




                    ---------------------------------------------
                    http://www.InsideTheBook.com
                    The Book--Playing The Percentages In Baseball











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                  • Michael Westbay
                    I ve also run this query through my Taiwanese database (combined CPBL and TML players). Out of 1,700 players, these are the results: Month Count 1 8.6%
                    Message 9 of 24 , Mar 8 5:22 PM
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                      I've also run this query through my Taiwanese database (combined CPBL
                      and TML players). Out of 1,700 players, these are the results:

                      Month Count
                      1 8.6%
                      2 7.4%
                      3 7.6%
                      4 6.8%
                      5 7.0%
                      6 5.7%
                      7 5.4%
                      8 8.8%
                      9 10.1%
                      10 11.6%
                      11 12.0%
                      12 9.1%

                      If I had to make a guess, I'd say that the school year starts around the
                      end of August, beginning of September in Taiwan, making those born in
                      the August to November range the biggest in their classes. Notice how
                      the numbers drop steadily starting in December?

                      Wow. This is interesting.

                      --
                      Michael Westbay
                      Writer/System Administrator
                      http://JapaneseBaseball.com
                    • Tangotiger
                      ... There was a thread about this on a Freakanomics blog entry. If you are going to calculate age as a single integer, it needs to be done by looking at where
                      Message 10 of 24 , Mar 8 5:47 PM
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                        --- Michael Westbay
                        <westbaystars@...> wrote:

                        >
                        > Wow. This is interesting.
                        >


                        There was a thread about this on a Freakanomics blog
                        entry.

                        If you are going to calculate age as a single integer,
                        it needs to be done by looking at where the players
                        are clustered, whether by when they are born, when
                        they are drafted, or when they enter school.

                        "Mid-point of season, and flooring the age" is
                        meaningless. If you choose a meaningless arbitrary
                        point, make the calculation the easiest.

                        Tom


                        ---------------------------------------------
                        http://www.InsideTheBook.com
                        The Book--Playing The Percentages In Baseball











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                      • Tangotiger
                        Here s one such article: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/07/magazine/07wwln_freak.html?ei=5070&en=1ff54422d3371507&ex=1173502800&pagewanted=all Tom ...
                        Message 11 of 24 , Mar 8 5:49 PM
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                          Here's one such article:
                          http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/07/magazine/07wwln_freak.html?ei=5070&en=1ff54422d3371507&ex=1173502800&pagewanted=all

                          Tom

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                          http://www.InsideTheBook.com
                          The Book--Playing The Percentages In Baseball











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