Re: [bafuture] Future? 10 jobs on avg by DJ Cline
1) Why? What's the underlying cause driving this change?
2) How short will jobs get? 3 years? 2 years? 6 months? 6 days? 5 minutes?
3) What will stop or reverse the trend? Or
4) Will the trend keep going forever?
On 8/28/06, D. J. Cline <djcline01@...> wrote:
> Commentary August 28, 2006
> By DJ Cline
> 10 Jobs On Average
> U.S. Bureau of Labor study shows that Americans in their forties held
> at least ten jobs on average. www.bls.gov/new.release/nlsoy.toc.htm
> Now mind you, that is the average. That means that there are people
> holding twenty jobs in the past 25 years. It means that the average job
> lasts between one and three years. Nothing drives home the dramatic
> instability of the modern workplace than these numbers.
> I get a lot of resumes and I know a lot of recruiters. This study
> confirms my suspicions. Everybody is constantly looking for work. They
> know they cannot stay where they are because where they are won't be
> there anymore.
> Unfortunately there is an outdated view that companies want employees
> who have worked somewhere for a long time. This recent study shows that
> to be statistically unlikely. I recommend you point this study out to
> as many people as possible as a wake up call.
> Economists like to point out that the American workforce is more
> flexible and dynamic than Europe. Employees have to be as dynamic as
> the companies they work for, so don't look down at a candidate who has
> worked many places. They have wider experience and might know how to
> solve a problem a company hasn't encountered yet.
> I know in Silicon Valley the business cycles are accelerated even more.
> There are people who have the equivalent of several lifetimes'
> experience with how to build companies and deal with the problems of
> growth and obsolescence. Given the choice, I would pick them over some
> statistical fluke that steered through twenty years of bureaucratic
> inertia at the same company.
> There are companies that specialize in change management. Doesn't it
> make sense to hire employees who are familiar with change?
> Copyright 2006 DJ Cline. All rights reserved.
I don't know the underlying cause driving shorter employments except
there is no incentive to stop it.
How short will jobs get? Yesterday I heard about a two month contract
at a biotech for a programmer. Last week I heard about a hiring manager
who wanted someone for a week or two. They both wanted people with long
tenures at big companies to work for short periods. They wanted the
impossible: an experienced virgin for a one-night stand.
Companies get rewarded to let go of employees.
Yesterday Intel let go of 10,000 people and will probably get a bump on
I call this the Less-Is-Moore's Law, where a company gets progressively
smaller over time.
I assume the trend will end when everyone is laid off and people only
work for each other on a transaction by transaction basis.
Charlton Heston will return from space to find the planet run by temps.
In the final scene, he will be pounding the sandy beach in front of a
rusty file cabinet full of 401k plans.
The only thing that might help would be artificial or even organic
intelligence evolving in board rooms.
I call this the Boss Convergence, where management figures out that
their employees are carbon-based and require as much maintenance as
Making fun of everything.