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Re: Technology Laws

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  • genomik2
    I cannot find it, but there is one that says something like: The number of genes you can put on a microarray doubles every year . It is like Moores law for
    Message 1 of 2 , Aug 1, 2002
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      I cannot find it, but there is one that says something like:
      "The number of genes you can put on a microarray doubles every
      year". It is like Moores law for biotech, but I think the numbers
      are more astounding. For example, if a DNA base = a byte, then the
      whole human genome is ~33MB. That means all our genes added up in
      one person are only ~##MB. That is a pretty dinky OS. Even Windows
      95 is probably bigger than we are, so pretty quickly the microarray
      can read humans pretty easily! What happens when we get terabyte
      microarrayers. I imagine the next hurdle will be to cut down the
      time to sequence.

      I think it was a Dr Chen from Stanford or Caliper Technologies, but
      I donna remember.....

      Asta La Vista

      --- In bafuture@y..., wayne radinsky <spodware@y...> wrote:
      > My old collection of technology laws.
      > If you know of any more laws, please forward to me
      > so I can add them to the list :)
      > Wayne
      > ------------
      > Moore's Law
      > First postulated by former Intel CEO Gordon Moore
      > in the mid-1960s, Moore's Law is the prediction
      > that the size of each transistor on an integrated
      > circuit chip will be reduced by 50 percent every
      > twenty-four months. The result is the
      > exponentially growing power of integrated
      > circuit-based computation over time. Moore's Law
      > doubles the number of components on a chip as
      > well as the speed of each component. Both of
      > these aspects double the power of computing, for
      > an effective quadrupling of the power of
      > computation every twenty-four months.
      > Gilder's Law
      > An assertion by George Gilder, visionary author
      > of Telecosm, which states that "bandwidth grows
      > at least three times faster than computer power."
      > This means that if computer power doubles every
      > eighteen months (per Moore's Law), then
      > communications power doubles every six months.
      > Metcalfe's Law
      > The total value of a network to its users grows
      > as the square of the total number of users. The
      > law was developed by Bob Metcalfe originally to
      > convince people of the value of Ethernet and has
      > also been referred to by George Gilder as the law
      > of the telecosm. An important consequence of the
      > law is that the ratio of value to cost for adding
      > one more network user grows disproportionately
      > (increasing returns) as the network gets bigger.
      > Shannon's Law
      > A statement defining the theoretical maximum at
      > which error-free digits can be transmitted over a
      > bandwidth-limited channel in the presence of
      > noise; the rough equation works out to about 10
      > bits per hertz of bandwidth in practical analog
      > circuits, making the Shannon limit about 30,000
      > bps for voice-grade lines.
      > Gilder's version says that "the lower the power
      > the higher the bandwidth". Digital communications
      > efficiency declines as power increases, or,
      > conversely, efficiency increases as power
      > weakens. Increased electrical power means more
      > dispersion and nonlinearity in fiber and more
      > interference in the air. Reducing power expended
      > per bit enables exponentially increasing bitrates.
      > Coase's Law
      > Coase's Law holds that a firm should expand until
      > the cost of performing a transaction inside the
      > firm exceeds the cost of performing the
      > transaction outside the firm. The rapid decrease
      > in transaction costs brought about by the
      > Internet is causing many firms to shrink and
      > outsource.
      > Negroponte's Law
      > Negroponte's law (1990 or so) states that
      > everything that is now via fixed media need to be
      > wireless and conversely.
      > Parkinson's Law
      > Work expands to fill the time alloted it.
      > Parkinson's Law of Data
      > "Data expands to fill the space available for
      > storage"; buying more memory encourages the use
      > of more memory-intensive techniques. It has been
      > observed since the mid-1980s that the memory
      > usage of evolving systems tends to double roughly
      > once every 18 months. Fortunately, memory density
      > available for constant dollars also tends to
      > about double once every 18 months (see Moore's
      > Law); unfortunately, the laws of physics
      > guarantee that the latter cannot continue
      > indefinitely.
      > Gates's Law
      > "The speed of software halves every 18 months."
      > This oft-cited law is an ironic comment on the
      > tendency of software bloat to outpace the
      > every-18-month doubling in hardware caopacity per
      > dollar predicted by Moore's Law. The reference is
      > to Bill Gates; Microsoft is widely considered
      > among the worst if not the worst of the
      > perpetrators of bloat.
      > Brooks's Law
      > "Adding manpower to a late software project makes
      > it later" -- a result of the fact that the
      > expected advantage from splitting development
      > work among N programmers is O(N) (that is,
      > proportional to N), but the complexity and
      > communications cost associated with coordinating
      > and then merging their work is O(N^2) (that is,
      > proportional to the square of N). The quote is
      > from Fred Brooks, a manager of IBM's OS/360
      > project and author of "The Mythical Man-Month"
      > (Addison-Wesley, 1975, ISBN 0-201-00650-2), an
      > excellent early book on software engineering. The
      > myth in question has been most tersely expressed
      > as "Programmer time is fungible" and Brooks
      > established conclusively that it is not. Hackers
      > have never forgotten his advice (though it's not
      > the whole story; see bazaar); too often,
      > management still does. See also creationism,
      > second-system effect, optimism.
      > Anderson's Law
      > Everything takes longer and costs more.
      > Conway's Law
      > The rule that the organization of the software
      > and the organization of the software team will be
      > congruent; commonly stated as "If you have four
      > groups working on a compiler, you'll get a 4-pass
      > compiler". The original statement was more
      > general, "Organizations which design systems are
      > constrained to produce designs which are copies
      > of the communication structures of these
      > organizations." This first appeared in the April
      > 1968 issue of Datamation. Compare SNAFU principle.
      > The law was named after Melvin Conway, an early
      > proto-hacker who wrote an assembler for the
      > Burroughs 220 called SAVE. (The name `SAVE'
      > didn't stand for anything; it was just that you
      > lost fewer card decks and listings because they
      > all had SAVE written on them.)
      > There is also Tom Cheatham's amendment of
      > Conway's Law: "If a group of N persons implements
      > a COBOL compiler, there will be N-1 passes.
      > Someone in the group has to be the manager."
      > Zawinski's Law
      > "Every program attempts to expand until it can
      > read mail. Those programs which cannot so expand
      > are replaced by ones which can." Coined by Jamie
      > Zawinski (who called it the "Law of Software
      > Envelopment") to express his belief that all
      > truly useful programs experience pressure to
      > evolve into toolkits and application platforms
      > (the mailer thing, he says, is just a side effect
      > of that). It is commonly cited, though with
      > widely varying degrees of accuracy.
      > Lubarsky's Law of Cybernetic Entomology
      > "There is always one more bug."
      > Linus's Law
      > "Given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow."
      > Given a large enough beta-tester and co-developer
      > base, almost every problem will be characterized
      > quickly and the fix obvious to someone.
      > Amdahl's Law
      > Amdahl's law defines the maximum speedup
      > available from an algorithm on a particular
      > system. It holds because parallel algorithms
      > almost always include work that can only take
      > place sequentially. From this sequential
      > fraction, Amdahl's law provides a maximum
      > possible speedup.
      > Godwin's Law
      > "As a [Usenet] discussion grows longer, the
      > probability of a comparison involving Nazis or
      > Hitler approaches one." There is a tradition in
      > many groups that, once this occurs, that thread
      > is over, and whoever mentioned the Nazis has
      > automatically lost whatever argument was in
      > progress. Godwin's Law thus practically
      > guarantees the existence of an upper bound on
      > thread length in those groups. However there is
      > also a widely- recognized codicil that any
      > intentional triggering of Godwin's Law in order
      > to invoke its thread-ending effects will be
      > unsuccessful.
      > Sturgeon's Law
      > "Ninety percent of everything is crap". Derived
      > from a quote by science fiction author Theodore
      > Sturgeon, who once said, "Sure, 90% of science
      > fiction is crud. That's because 90% of everything
      > is crud." Oddly, when Sturgeon's Law is cited,
      > the final word is almost invariably changed to
      > `crap'. Compare Hanlon's Razor, Ninety-Ninety
      > Rule. Though this maxim originated in SF fandom,
      > most hackers recognize it and are all too aware
      > of its truth.
      > Murphy's Law
      > The correct, original Murphy's Law reads: "If
      > there are two or more ways to do something, and
      > one of those ways can result in a catastrophe,
      > then someone will do it." This is a principle of
      > defensive design, cited here because it is
      > usually given in mutant forms less descriptive of
      > the challenges of design for lusers. For example,
      > you don't make a two-pin plug symmetrical and
      > then label it `THIS WAY UP'; if it matters which
      > way it is plugged in, then you make the design
      > asymmetrical (see also the anecdote under magic
      > smoke).
      > Edward A. Murphy, Jr. was one of the engineers on
      > the rocket-sled experiments that were done by the
      > U.S. Air Force in 1949 to test human acceleration
      > tolerances (USAF project MX981). One experiment
      > involved a set of 16 accelerometers mounted to
      > different parts of the subject's body. There were
      > two ways each sensor could be glued to its mount,
      > and somebody methodically installed all 16 the
      > wrong way around. Murphy then made the original
      > form of his pronouncement, which the test subject
      > (Major John Paul Stapp) quoted at a news
      > conference a few days later.
      > Within months `Murphy's Law' had spread to
      > various technical cultures connected to aerospace
      > engineering. Before too many years had gone by
      > variants had passed into the popular imagination,
      > changing as they went. Most of these are variants
      > on "Anything that can go wrong, will"; this is
      > correctly referred to as Finagle's Law. The
      > memetic drift apparent in these mutants clearly
      > demonstrates Murphy's Law acting on itself!
      > Finagle's Law
      > The generalized or `folk' version of Murphy's
      > Law, fully named "Finagle's Law of Dynamic
      > Negatives" and usually rendered "Anything that
      > can go wrong, will". May have been first
      > published by Francis P. Chisholm in his 1963
      > essay "The Chisholm Effect", later reprinted in
      > the classic anthology "A Stress Analysis Of A
      > Strapless Evening Gown: And Other Essays For A
      > Scientific Eye" (Robert Baker ed, Prentice-Hall,
      > ISBN 0-13-852608-7).
      > The label `Finagle's Law' was popularized by SF
      > author Larry Niven in several stories depicting a
      > frontier culture of asteroid miners; this
      > `Belter' culture professed a religion and/or
      > running joke involving the worship of the dread
      > god Finagle and his mad prophet Murphy. Some
      > technical and scientific cultures (e.g.,
      > paleontologists) know it under the name `Sod's
      > Law'; this usage may be more common in Great
      > Britain.
      > One variant favored among hackers is "The
      > perversity of the Universe tends towards a
      > maximum"; Niven specifically referred to this as
      > O'Toole's Corollary of Finagle's Law. See also
      > Hanlon's Razor.
      > Jenning's Corollary
      > The chance of bread falling jelly side down is
      > directly proportional to the cost of the carpet.
      > Jenning's Work Law
      > The harder one works at a problem, the harder the
      > problem gets.
      > Frouds Law
      > A transistor protected by a fast acting fuse will
      > protect the fuse by blowing first.
      > Drucker's Law
      > 1) "If one thing goes wrong, everything else
      > will, and at the same time."
      > 2) Those in the midst of a technological.
      > revolution don't understand what is happenening
      > 3) Profits migrate to the supplier of the missing
      > component necessary to complete a system.
      > Segal's Law
      > A man with one watch knows what time it is. A man
      > with two watches is never sure.
      > Toffler's Law
      > The future arrives too soon and in the wrong order.
      > Toffler's Law of Rasberry Jam
      > The wider any culture is spread, the thinner it
      > gets.
      > MacGregor's Law
      > The first car to see the traffic light turn green
      > is the second car back.
      > Borkson's Law
      > The farther a seat is from the aisle, the later
      > the patron arrives.
      > McGovern's Law
      > The longer the title, the less important the job.
      > Cole's Law
      > Thinly sliced cabbage.
      > Felson's Law
      > To steal ideas from one person is plagiarism; To
      > steal from many is research.
      > Harrison's Law
      > For every action, there is an equal and opposite
      > criticism.
      > Pohl's Law
      > Nothing is so good that somebody, somewhere, will
      > not hate it.
      > Zimmerman's Law of Complaints
      > Nobody notices when things go right.
      > Paul's Law
      > You can't fall off the floor.
      > Thoreau's Law
      > If you see a man approaching you with the obvious
      > intent of doing you good, you should run for your
      > life.
      > Vique's Law
      > A man without religion is like a fish without a
      > bicycle.
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