Re: Technology Laws
- I cannot find it, but there is one that says something like:
"The number of genes you can put on a microarray doubles every
year". It is like Moores law for biotech, but I think the numbers
are more astounding. For example, if a DNA base = a byte, then the
whole human genome is ~33MB. That means all our genes added up in
one person are only ~##MB. That is a pretty dinky OS. Even Windows
95 is probably bigger than we are, so pretty quickly the microarray
can read humans pretty easily! What happens when we get terabyte
microarrayers. I imagine the next hurdle will be to cut down the
time to sequence.
I think it was a Dr Chen from Stanford or Caliper Technologies, but
I donna remember.....
Asta La Vista
--- In bafuture@y..., wayne radinsky <spodware@y...> wrote:
> My old collection of technology laws.
> If you know of any more laws, please forward to me
> so I can add them to the list :)
> Moore's Law
> First postulated by former Intel CEO Gordon Moore
> in the mid-1960s, Moore's Law is the prediction
> that the size of each transistor on an integrated
> circuit chip will be reduced by 50 percent every
> twenty-four months. The result is the
> exponentially growing power of integrated
> circuit-based computation over time. Moore's Law
> doubles the number of components on a chip as
> well as the speed of each component. Both of
> these aspects double the power of computing, for
> an effective quadrupling of the power of
> computation every twenty-four months.
> Gilder's Law
> An assertion by George Gilder, visionary author
> of Telecosm, which states that "bandwidth grows
> at least three times faster than computer power."
> This means that if computer power doubles every
> eighteen months (per Moore's Law), then
> communications power doubles every six months.
> Metcalfe's Law
> The total value of a network to its users grows
> as the square of the total number of users. The
> law was developed by Bob Metcalfe originally to
> convince people of the value of Ethernet and has
> also been referred to by George Gilder as the law
> of the telecosm. An important consequence of the
> law is that the ratio of value to cost for adding
> one more network user grows disproportionately
> (increasing returns) as the network gets bigger.
> Shannon's Law
> A statement defining the theoretical maximum at
> which error-free digits can be transmitted over a
> bandwidth-limited channel in the presence of
> noise; the rough equation works out to about 10
> bits per hertz of bandwidth in practical analog
> circuits, making the Shannon limit about 30,000
> bps for voice-grade lines.
> Gilder's version says that "the lower the power
> the higher the bandwidth". Digital communications
> efficiency declines as power increases, or,
> conversely, efficiency increases as power
> weakens. Increased electrical power means more
> dispersion and nonlinearity in fiber and more
> interference in the air. Reducing power expended
> per bit enables exponentially increasing bitrates.
> Coase's Law
> Coase's Law holds that a firm should expand until
> the cost of performing a transaction inside the
> firm exceeds the cost of performing the
> transaction outside the firm. The rapid decrease
> in transaction costs brought about by the
> Internet is causing many firms to shrink and
> Negroponte's Law
> Negroponte's law (1990 or so) states that
> everything that is now via fixed media need to be
> wireless and conversely.
> Parkinson's Law
> Work expands to fill the time alloted it.
> Parkinson's Law of Data
> "Data expands to fill the space available for
> storage"; buying more memory encourages the use
> of more memory-intensive techniques. It has been
> observed since the mid-1980s that the memory
> usage of evolving systems tends to double roughly
> once every 18 months. Fortunately, memory density
> available for constant dollars also tends to
> about double once every 18 months (see Moore's
> Law); unfortunately, the laws of physics
> guarantee that the latter cannot continue
> Gates's Law
> "The speed of software halves every 18 months."
> This oft-cited law is an ironic comment on the
> tendency of software bloat to outpace the
> every-18-month doubling in hardware caopacity per
> dollar predicted by Moore's Law. The reference is
> to Bill Gates; Microsoft is widely considered
> among the worst if not the worst of the
> perpetrators of bloat.
> Brooks's Law
> "Adding manpower to a late software project makes
> it later" -- a result of the fact that the
> expected advantage from splitting development
> work among N programmers is O(N) (that is,
> proportional to N), but the complexity and
> communications cost associated with coordinating
> and then merging their work is O(N^2) (that is,
> proportional to the square of N). The quote is
> from Fred Brooks, a manager of IBM's OS/360
> project and author of "The Mythical Man-Month"
> (Addison-Wesley, 1975, ISBN 0-201-00650-2), an
> excellent early book on software engineering. The
> myth in question has been most tersely expressed
> as "Programmer time is fungible" and Brooks
> established conclusively that it is not. Hackers
> have never forgotten his advice (though it's not
> the whole story; see bazaar); too often,
> management still does. See also creationism,
> second-system effect, optimism.
> Anderson's Law
> Everything takes longer and costs more.
> Conway's Law
> The rule that the organization of the software
> and the organization of the software team will be
> congruent; commonly stated as "If you have four
> groups working on a compiler, you'll get a 4-pass
> compiler". The original statement was more
> general, "Organizations which design systems are
> constrained to produce designs which are copies
> of the communication structures of these
> organizations." This first appeared in the April
> 1968 issue of Datamation. Compare SNAFU principle.
> The law was named after Melvin Conway, an early
> proto-hacker who wrote an assembler for the
> Burroughs 220 called SAVE. (The name `SAVE'
> didn't stand for anything; it was just that you
> lost fewer card decks and listings because they
> all had SAVE written on them.)
> There is also Tom Cheatham's amendment of
> Conway's Law: "If a group of N persons implements
> a COBOL compiler, there will be N-1 passes.
> Someone in the group has to be the manager."
> Zawinski's Law
> "Every program attempts to expand until it can
> read mail. Those programs which cannot so expand
> are replaced by ones which can." Coined by Jamie
> Zawinski (who called it the "Law of Software
> Envelopment") to express his belief that all
> truly useful programs experience pressure to
> evolve into toolkits and application platforms
> (the mailer thing, he says, is just a side effect
> of that). It is commonly cited, though with
> widely varying degrees of accuracy.
> Lubarsky's Law of Cybernetic Entomology
> "There is always one more bug."
> Linus's Law
> "Given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow."
> Given a large enough beta-tester and co-developer
> base, almost every problem will be characterized
> quickly and the fix obvious to someone.
> Amdahl's Law
> Amdahl's law defines the maximum speedup
> available from an algorithm on a particular
> system. It holds because parallel algorithms
> almost always include work that can only take
> place sequentially. From this sequential
> fraction, Amdahl's law provides a maximum
> possible speedup.
> Godwin's Law
> "As a [Usenet] discussion grows longer, the
> probability of a comparison involving Nazis or
> Hitler approaches one." There is a tradition in
> many groups that, once this occurs, that thread
> is over, and whoever mentioned the Nazis has
> automatically lost whatever argument was in
> progress. Godwin's Law thus practically
> guarantees the existence of an upper bound on
> thread length in those groups. However there is
> also a widely- recognized codicil that any
> intentional triggering of Godwin's Law in order
> to invoke its thread-ending effects will be
> Sturgeon's Law
> "Ninety percent of everything is crap". Derived
> from a quote by science fiction author Theodore
> Sturgeon, who once said, "Sure, 90% of science
> fiction is crud. That's because 90% of everything
> is crud." Oddly, when Sturgeon's Law is cited,
> the final word is almost invariably changed to
> `crap'. Compare Hanlon's Razor, Ninety-Ninety
> Rule. Though this maxim originated in SF fandom,
> most hackers recognize it and are all too aware
> of its truth.
> Murphy's Law
> The correct, original Murphy's Law reads: "If
> there are two or more ways to do something, and
> one of those ways can result in a catastrophe,
> then someone will do it." This is a principle of
> defensive design, cited here because it is
> usually given in mutant forms less descriptive of
> the challenges of design for lusers. For example,
> you don't make a two-pin plug symmetrical and
> then label it `THIS WAY UP'; if it matters which
> way it is plugged in, then you make the design
> asymmetrical (see also the anecdote under magic
> Edward A. Murphy, Jr. was one of the engineers on
> the rocket-sled experiments that were done by the
> U.S. Air Force in 1949 to test human acceleration
> tolerances (USAF project MX981). One experiment
> involved a set of 16 accelerometers mounted to
> different parts of the subject's body. There were
> two ways each sensor could be glued to its mount,
> and somebody methodically installed all 16 the
> wrong way around. Murphy then made the original
> form of his pronouncement, which the test subject
> (Major John Paul Stapp) quoted at a news
> conference a few days later.
> Within months `Murphy's Law' had spread to
> various technical cultures connected to aerospace
> engineering. Before too many years had gone by
> variants had passed into the popular imagination,
> changing as they went. Most of these are variants
> on "Anything that can go wrong, will"; this is
> correctly referred to as Finagle's Law. The
> memetic drift apparent in these mutants clearly
> demonstrates Murphy's Law acting on itself!
> Finagle's Law
> The generalized or `folk' version of Murphy's
> Law, fully named "Finagle's Law of Dynamic
> Negatives" and usually rendered "Anything that
> can go wrong, will". May have been first
> published by Francis P. Chisholm in his 1963
> essay "The Chisholm Effect", later reprinted in
> the classic anthology "A Stress Analysis Of A
> Strapless Evening Gown: And Other Essays For A
> Scientific Eye" (Robert Baker ed, Prentice-Hall,
> ISBN 0-13-852608-7).
> The label `Finagle's Law' was popularized by SF
> author Larry Niven in several stories depicting a
> frontier culture of asteroid miners; this
> `Belter' culture professed a religion and/or
> running joke involving the worship of the dread
> god Finagle and his mad prophet Murphy. Some
> technical and scientific cultures (e.g.,
> paleontologists) know it under the name `Sod's
> Law'; this usage may be more common in Great
> One variant favored among hackers is "The
> perversity of the Universe tends towards a
> maximum"; Niven specifically referred to this as
> O'Toole's Corollary of Finagle's Law. See also
> Hanlon's Razor.
> Jenning's Corollary
> The chance of bread falling jelly side down is
> directly proportional to the cost of the carpet.
> Jenning's Work Law
> The harder one works at a problem, the harder the
> problem gets.
> Frouds Law
> A transistor protected by a fast acting fuse will
> protect the fuse by blowing first.
> Drucker's Law
> 1) "If one thing goes wrong, everything else
> will, and at the same time."
> 2) Those in the midst of a technological.
> revolution don't understand what is happenening
> 3) Profits migrate to the supplier of the missing
> component necessary to complete a system.
> Segal's Law
> A man with one watch knows what time it is. A man
> with two watches is never sure.
> Toffler's Law
> The future arrives too soon and in the wrong order.
> Toffler's Law of Rasberry Jam
> The wider any culture is spread, the thinner it
> MacGregor's Law
> The first car to see the traffic light turn green
> is the second car back.
> Borkson's Law
> The farther a seat is from the aisle, the later
> the patron arrives.
> McGovern's Law
> The longer the title, the less important the job.
> Cole's Law
> Thinly sliced cabbage.
> Felson's Law
> To steal ideas from one person is plagiarism; To
> steal from many is research.
> Harrison's Law
> For every action, there is an equal and opposite
> Pohl's Law
> Nothing is so good that somebody, somewhere, will
> not hate it.
> Zimmerman's Law of Complaints
> Nobody notices when things go right.
> Paul's Law
> You can't fall off the floor.
> Thoreau's Law
> If you see a man approaching you with the obvious
> intent of doing you good, you should run for your
> Vique's Law
> A man without religion is like a fish without a
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