Re: [anthroposophy] Islam and oil
- pacbay@... writes:
Many believe an incursion in Iraq ( with further assistance and entrenchment in Saudi Arabia - all the 9/11 terrorists were from Saudi Arabia) would inflame moderates and tilt the leadership throughout the region.
****** "Many" also believe the exact opposite---it will inflame only the terminally aggrieved radicals who are already 'inflamed' anyway---- and give an opportunity, once they're on the run, for the moderates to speak out everywhere. They're afraid of assassination by the radicals now. Like the moderate Palestinians who just dared defy the corrupt Arafat--- if Hamas were on the run, they would be free to step forward.
As for the Saudi government, they're on our side, as they have to be, afraid of their own nuts. But if their people rise up and change the regime there, we're fine with that.
>>>This probably would impact oil exports and then the economies of the West from
transportation to heating. Yes, Iraq has oil and lots of it- but how accessible is it and when; and would it be available as "terrorists" attack pipelines across the world in retaliation.
*******The Moslem governments and sensible moderates need the oil revenues to feed their people. They would have just as much interest in protecting their pipelines as the West does. The scenario you describe would force them to confront the evil killers they're refusing to confront now, wouldn't it? As long as the violent nuts are attacking Jews they can look the other way, but when they start attacking their own people those governments will have to act against them. Look at what Assad did to the Palestinians in Syria in 'Black September'; and Arafat has proven in the past that he knows who his bombers are and can lock them up and stop them if he wishes to.
These are similar fears to those expressed in 1990-91. we were told then that Hussein would torch the Kuwaiti oil fields, use chemical weapons, etc.; but none of it happened. His retreating troops lit a few fires but we had the oil flowing again in no time. We got through all that fine and I think we'll get through this one fine. In fact, if we do it right we'll be better off than before, because then we allowed the cowardice of our Arab allies to keep us from finishing the job. My sense is that won't cut any ice with us this time. Watch what starts before Ramadan is over, and then what happens in December.