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Re: Thoughts about the Hague Conference

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  • starmann77@aol.com
    starmann77@aol.com writes: Here below is the story at
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 23, 2000
      starmann77@... writes:
      <<http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/in_depth/sci_tech/2000/climate_change/newsi

      d_1023000/1023334.stm >>
      Here below is the story at this link, for those who don't want to look it up.
      Any professors of atmospheric science, perhaps you'd like to debate your
      knowledge of the subject with one.

      Thursday, 16 November, 2000, 17:16 GMT Viewpoint: Get off the global
      warming bandwagon

      Changes in ocean currents may cause global warning

      By Professor William M. Gray of Colorado State University

      As a boy, I remember seeing articles about the large global warming that had
      taken place between 1900 and 1945. No one understood or knew if this warming
      would continue. Then the warming abated and I heard little about such warming
      through the late 1940s and into the 1970s.
      In fact, surface measurements showed a small global cooling between the
      mid-1940s and the early 1970s. During the 1970s, there was speculation
      concerning an increase in this cooling. Some speculated that a new ice age
      may not be far off.
      Then in the 1980s, it all changed again. The current global warming bandwagon
      that US-European governments have been alarming us with is still in full
      swing.

      Not our fault
      Are we, the fossil-fuel-burning public, partially responsible for this recent
      warming trend? Almost assuredly not.
      These small global temperature increases of the last 25 years and over the
      last century are likely natural changes that the globe has seen many times in
      the past.
      This small warming is likely a result of the natural alterations in global
      ocean currents which are driven by ocean salinity variations. Ocean
      circulation variations are as yet little understood.
      Human kind has little or nothing to do with the recent temperature changes.
      We are not that influential.
      There is a negative or complementary nature to human-induced greenhouse gas
      increases in comparison with the dominant natural greenhouse gas of water
      vapour and its cloud derivatives.
      It has been assumed by the human-induced global warming advocates that as
      anthropogenic greenhouse gases increase that water vapour and upper-level
      cloudiness will also rise and lead to accelerated warming - a positive
      feedback loop.
      It is not the human-induced greenhouse gases themselves which cause
      significant warming but the assumed extra water vapour and cloudiness that
      some scientists hypothesise.

      Negative feedback
      The global general circulation models which simulate significant amounts of
      human-induced warming are incorrectly structured to give this positive
      feedback loop.
      Their internal model assumptions are thus not realistic.
      Mainstream opinion believes that pollution contributes to climate change
      As human-induced greenhouse gases rise, global-averaged upper-level
      atmospheric water vapour and thin cirrus should be expected to decrease not
      increase.
      Water vapour and cirrus cloudiness should be thought of as a negative rather
      than a positive feedback to human-induced - or anthropogenic greenhouse gas
      increases.
      No significant human-induced greenhouse gas warming can occur with such a
      negative feedback loop.

      Climate debate has 'life of its own'
      Our global climate's temperature has always fluctuated back and forth and it
      will continue to do so, irrespective of how much or how little greenhouse
      gases we put into the atmosphere.
      Although initially generated by honest scientific questions of how
      human-produced greenhouse gases might affect global climate, this topic has
      now taken on a life of its own.
      It has been extended and grossly exaggerated and misused by those wishing to
      make gain from the exploitation of ignorance on this subject.
      This includes the governments of developed countries, the media and
      scientists who are willing to bend their objectivity to obtain government
      grants for research on this topic.
      I have closely followed the carbon dioxide warming arguments. From what I
      have learned of how the atmosphere ticks over 40 years of study, I have been
      unable to convince myself that a doubling of human-induced greenhouse gases
      can lead to anything but quite small and insignificant amounts of global
      warming.

      William M. Gray
      Colorado State University
      The author is a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado where he is an
      expert in tropical meteorology.
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