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Contuining Qing Dynasty

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  • Wise Owl
    Well here s one I ve been thinking about for a while, a simple POV; the Empress Dowagers attempt to take over the Qing fails(either via her death, or the
    Message 1 of 7 , Mar 9, 2006
      Well here's one I've been thinking about for a while, a simple POV; the Empress Dowagers attempt to take over the Qing fails(either via her death, or the collapse of resolve of the conspirators, or whatever).  Her son, Tongzhi, is raised by competant, potentially forward looking Literati, and ascends the throne influenced by reformers rather than dieing of Small-pox.  Thus by the late 1870's, we have a strong reformist Emperor in charge.  Presuming the conservatives don't have him assasinated or deposed for a more 'controlable' emperor, what effect would a Reformist China have on world History.  Most particularly how would the developement of a Reformist China affect Japan, America's developement in the Pacific, and the European powers view of Asia in general.  Could China regain her 'true' soverignty by the time of the great European Implosion?  What kind of reforms were likely(education obviously, but a constitutional Monarchy?  Would the CHinese emulate the British or the Prussians, or create their own system?)  Anyways, thoughts.
    • Mark O.
      Japan might well have been invaded by China, if only to forestall the Americans and others from getting more of a hold in Asia. Major trouble with Britain
      Message 2 of 7 , Mar 9, 2006
        Japan might well have been invaded by China, if only to forestall the Americans and others from getting more of a hold in Asia.  Major trouble with Britain might be inevitable, with a replay of the Opium wars at worst... can't imagine how China could win that one.


        Wise Owl <wise_owl5@...> wrote:
        Well here's one I've been thinking about for a while, a simple POV; the Empress Dowagers attempt to take over the Qing fails(either via her death, or the collapse of resolve of the conspirators, or whatever).  Her son, Tongzhi, is raised by competant, potentially forward looking Literati, and ascends the throne influenced by reformers rather than dieing of Small-pox.  Thus by the late 1870's, we have a strong reformist Emperor in charge.  Presuming the conservatives don't have him assasinated or deposed for a more 'controlable' emperor, what effect would a Reformist China have on world History.  Most particularly how would the developement of a Reformist China affect Japan, America's developement in the Pacific, and the European powers view of Asia in general.  Could China regain her 'true' soverignty by the time of the great European Implosion?  What kind of reforms were likely(education obviously, but a constitutional Monarchy?  Would the CHinese emulate the British or the Prussians, or create their own system?)  Anyways, thoughts.


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      • H. Torrance Griffin
        ... Unfortunately he is runing over a much larger and less centeralized nation that Meiji. Atop that he is an outlander who a lot of nationalists would just
        Message 3 of 7 , Mar 10, 2006
          --- In alternate-history@yahoogroups.com, "Wise Owl" <wise_owl5@...>
          wrote:
          >
          > Well here's one I've been thinking about for a while, a simple POV;
          > the Empress Dowagers attempt to take over the Qing fails(either via
          > her death, or the collapse of resolve of the conspirators, or
          > whatever). Her son, Tongzhi, is raised by competant, potentially
          > forward looking Literati, and ascends the throne influenced by
          > reformers rather than dieing of Small-pox. Thus by the late
          > 1870's, we have a strong reformist Emperor in charge.

          Unfortunately he is runing over a much larger and less centeralized
          nation that Meiji. Atop that he is an outlander who a lot of
          nationalists would just as soon remove.

          > Presuming the conservatives don't have him assasinated or deposed
          > for a more 'controlable' emperor, what effect would a Reformist
          > China have on world History.

          Despite my comments above, fairly huge simply by virtue of
          (hopefully) holding the core of China and the potentially industrial
          areas of Manchuria together whilst fixing the government and possibly
          renegotiating a few treaties.

          Still several steps behind Japan, but more than strong and organized
          enough in 60 years time to keep the Naval and Civilian factions from
          getting bullied by a successful IJA.

          I am not certain how much of the Chinese Diaspora in SE Asia and the
          Pacific dates from after this time though, and a Manchu Navy is
          certain to be a minor sideshow so serious overseas influence is
          unlikely.

          (BTW, Korea has a better chance of independence jammed between two
          powers in this TL)

          > Most particularly how would the developement of a Reformist China
          > affect Japan, America's developement in the Pacific, and the
          > European powers view of Asia in general.

          Not too much save the last. With a halfway functional Chinese state
          their armies cannot run over in addition to a rapidly modernizing
          Japan it grows harder to rationalise some of the BS they were
          convincing themselves of.

          > Could China regain her 'true' soverignty by the time of the great
          > European Implosion?

          It certainly would during, insofar as they would have other things to
          worry about when the Manchu Imperial Envoys buttonhole them for
          renegotiation.

          > What kind of reforms were likely(education obviously, but a
          > constitutional Monarchy? Would the CHinese emulate the British or
          > the Prussians, or create their own system?) Anyways, thoughts.

          Well... the degree of Autocracy was in fact a Ming innovation
          anyway. Still, the need for reforming the governing beauracracy and
          removing restrictions on the Chinese would be healthy.

          HTG
        • Wise Owl
          ... Actually in the 1870 s this is just the opposite. The Pre-Meiji Shogunatewas a very decentralised state, one of the principal goals of the Meiji
          Message 4 of 7 , Mar 11, 2006
            >> Well here's one I've been thinking about for a while, a simple POV;
            >> the Empress Dowagers attempt to take over the Qing fails(either via
            >> her death, or the collapse of resolve of the conspirators, or
            >> whatever). Her son, Tongzhi, is raised by competant, potentially
            >> forward looking Literati, and ascends the throne influenced by
            >> reformers rather than dieing of Small-pox. Thus by the late
            >> 1870's, we have a strong reformist Emperor in charge.
            >
            > Unfortunately he is runing over a much larger and less centeralized
            > nation that Meiji. Atop that he is an outlander who a lot of
            > nationalists would just as soon remove.

            Actually in the 1870's this is just the opposite. The Pre-Meiji
            Shogunatewas a very decentralised state, one of the principal goals of the
            Meiji Government was to reform the government aparatus to place central
            power under the Emperor. In china this was already so, the Literati class
            provided a very efficient centralization method. While there is still a
            great deal of regionalism, excerting central control would not likely be a
            significant problem, especially for the major urban centers. The 'Han'
            Nationalist movement may indeed be a problem, especially if the Emperor and
            his new reforms can be percieved as further 'Foreign Interferance', but
            without succesive failures like the later Opium Wars, or more unequal
            treaties, and with an emperor already engaged in westernization, it would be
            difficult for the Nationalists to gain an ideaological foot-hold. Sun Yat
            Sen succeded at least partially because he was simply there when the Qing
            imploded.

            >> Presuming the conservatives don't have him assasinated or deposed
            >> for a more 'controlable' emperor, what effect would a Reformist
            >> China have on world History.
            >
            > Despite my comments above, fairly huge simply by virtue of
            > (hopefully) holding the core of China and the potentially industrial
            > areas of Manchuria together whilst fixing the government and possibly
            > renegotiating a few treaties.
            >
            > Still several steps behind Japan, but more than strong and organized
            > enough in 60 years time to keep the Naval and Civilian factions from
            > getting bullied by a successful IJA.
            >
            > I am not certain how much of the Chinese Diaspora in SE Asia and the
            > Pacific dates from after this time though, and a Manchu Navy is
            > certain to be a minor sideshow so serious overseas influence is
            > unlikely.
            >
            > (BTW, Korea has a better chance of independence jammed between two
            > powers in this TL)

            I'll agree with you on pretty much everything here. Korea is almost
            certainly independent, in the sense that they are still a Chinese 'client'
            state, but have much more nominal independence. A Modernised, Centralised
            Chinese Military is much more succesful at keeping the Japanese off the
            continent. I think this would have catastrophic consequences for Japan.
            Without conquered regions Japan would be a much poorer state. More
            importantly, without the example of the 'Bloated Corpse' of China, the
            Militant Faction has much less traction and much less ability to act. A
            Very likely scenario would see a Westernised, Modernising China ally itself
            with America(who by the end of the 19th century had the least damaging of
            the Unequal Treaties, and was a central area for the Chinese Disporea),
            effecting a basic 'containment' of Japan. More disastrous consequences are
            in store for Russia, who know has to contend with a Major Land power along
            huge sections of it's border. Conflict is probably inevitable, meaning the
            cracks in the Russians system are probably larger, and revolution, sooner
            and bloodier(if the later is possible).
            I think we'd see a very different world by WWI, with a nominally independent
            Chinese State still waffling between tradition and 'modernity', and capable
            of severe influence in the European conflict simply by their ability to
            provide cheap Trench Labour(as happened in OTL anyways, just on a more
            'unequal' setting). Shanghai is likely an Economic Hub of the West and Hong
            Kong, without the massive disporia's caused by the Collapse of the Qing and
            the Warlord era never developes much beyond a small city serving as a
            way-station for british goods.

            >> Most particularly how would the developement of a Reformist China
            >> affect Japan, America's developement in the Pacific, and the
            >> European powers view of Asia in general.
            >
            > Not too much save the last. With a halfway functional Chinese state
            > their armies cannot run over in addition to a rapidly modernizing
            > Japan it grows harder to rationalise some of the BS they were
            > convincing themselves of.

            As I've stated, I think Japan would be radically effected by a modernised
            power on the continent. It also provides the European powers with Options
            in Asia, and I think Britain and France especially are more likely to deal
            with a modern China, viewing them by the turn of the century as the 'real'
            power in Asia, rather than the Japanese. The Japanese are now going to have
            to compete for interest, influence and contracts with a much larger, more
            economically stable nation. I also think it would end up bolstering
            America's influence in the region, if Self-Interest overcomes the Racism of
            the Era. America, and many factions in America, always percieved
            themeselves as having a great potential market in China, even as early as
            the 19th century, I think with the suggested scenario, such an alliance is
            likely, as America wasn't as enamoured with it's unequal treaties as were
            others. I wonder how much the 'Yellow Peril' would be influenced by a
            flurry of late 19th/early 20th century cross-pacific trade.

            >
            >> What kind of reforms were likely(education obviously, but a
            >> constitutional Monarchy? Would the CHinese emulate the British or
            >> the Prussians, or create their own system?) Anyways, thoughts.
            >
            > Well... the degree of Autocracy was in fact a Ming innovation
            > anyway. Still, the need for reforming the governing beauracracy and
            > removing restrictions on the Chinese would be healthy.
            >
            I think the most likely changes are a sort of 'neo-neo-confucianism'
            emphasing practicality in western education in schools. Democratic reforms
            are going to be slow in coming, save perhaps on a regional basis, but
            educational reforms at the base level, effecting the type and kind of
            literati entering the bureacracy are going to be the first and principal
            goal(getting people who understand the need for coastal guns and who have
            knowledge of Economics and Engineering as well as the Confucian Classics for
            example). Reformation of the Landlord system is also critical for any
            succesful 'modern' state, I see economic reforms of an agrarian nature being
            very likely. I also see a growing discontent between Urban and Rural being
            a problem for China by the early 1930's. Other big 'need to do's' are
            regainging control of China's border to limit the Opium Trade, reform the
            legal system into something Westerners would accept, and reduce the Manchu
            imposed limitations on the Chinese(or at least alter some of them).

            Thanks for responding by the way, I like to do non-western Uchronia, and it
            always seems such topics get less traction than those set in America, Europe
            or the Middle East, probably a function of peoples historical intersts and
            specialities I imagine.
          • Henrik Krog
            ... Can we have the Chinese invasion of Japan in 1870? And have France accept to be protector of the Republic of Yezo? Pretty please? The Republic of Yezo is a
            Message 5 of 7 , Mar 11, 2006
              >From: "Wise Owl" <wise_owl5@...>
              >Actually in the 1870's this is just the opposite. The Pre-Meiji
              >Shogunatewas a very decentralised state, one of the principal goals of the
              >Meiji Government was to reform the government aparatus to place central
              >power under the Emperor.

              Can we have the Chinese invasion of Japan in 1870? And have France accept to
              be protector of the Republic of Yezo? Pretty please?

              The Republic of Yezo is a hobby horse of mine.

              Henrik

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            • Amina Arraf
              Yezo is the same as Ezo? - Ami ... __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection
              Message 6 of 7 , Mar 11, 2006
                Yezo is the same as Ezo?

                - Ami

                --- Henrik Krog <krigermis@...> wrote:

                >
                >
                >
                > >From: "Wise Owl" <wise_owl5@...>
                > >Actually in the 1870's this is just the opposite.
                > The Pre-Meiji
                > >Shogunatewas a very decentralised state, one of the
                > principal goals of the
                > >Meiji Government was to reform the government
                > aparatus to place central
                > >power under the Emperor.
                >
                > Can we have the Chinese invasion of Japan in 1870?
                > And have France accept to
                > be protector of the Republic of Yezo? Pretty please?
                >
                > The Republic of Yezo is a hobby horse of mine.
                >
                > Henrik
                >
                >
                _________________________________________________________________
                > Download din yndlingsmusik på MSN Music:
                > http://www.msn.dk/music det er
                > nemt og billigt
                >
                >


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              • Henrik Krog
                ... Yezo is the old name for Hokkaido. Of Ainu extraction, I believe. The island was renamed Hokkaido after it was re-taken by the Meiji in 1871. Henrik
                Message 7 of 7 , Mar 11, 2006
                  >From: Amina Arraf <threefoldamina@...>
                  >Yezo is the same as Ezo?

                  Yezo is the old name for Hokkaido. Of Ainu extraction, I believe. The island
                  was renamed Hokkaido after it was re-taken by the Meiji in 1871.

                  Henrik

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