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26169Re: [alternate-history] America Falls: 1976

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  • Timothy McFadden
    Mar 29, 2014
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      I disagree. First, most of the soviet ICBM's were liquid fuelled rockets, the type most vulnerable to a first strike- They went with liquid fuelled to carry bigger payloads, knowing it takes longer to put a LF rocket into the air. Most of the soviet ICBM force could only have been used for a first strike.
      Second, soviet policy throughout the cold war was opportunistic- policies were in place to constantly improve their strategic position and weaken their opposition. When they thought someone was vulnerable, they struck. Afghanistan, Angola, Mozambique, Nicaragua were all places they were positioning themselves to take over well before things went south- when their opportunity came, they had people in position and they jumped in with both feet. McGovern and the Peace Movement of the '60's were a golden opportunity- the term for them and the anti-war movement in Moscow was "Useful Idiots".  Seeing how the Church committee gutted the US intelligence efforts in our timeline, even with the Ford Administration fighting them every inch of the way, it's hard to see how any intel capacity at all could have survived a presidential administration working with the Church committee.
      Consider the attitude during the fall of South Vietnam- Half a million regular NVA troops with full armor and artillery support invade the south, in violation of the Paris Peace accords. The US media was still trying to pretend it was daring, lethal guerillas against the corrupt, lazy US puppet regime. US Congress still cut military aid to South Vietnam, at the same time as it was cutting the US Military.  It took the invasion of Afghanistan to wake the country up to exactly how far we'd let things slip. By 1980, even our elite Delta Force couldn't conduct a successful hostage rescue mission out of Iran.

      From: Nowhere Man <wise_owl5@...>
      To: "alternate-history@yahoogroups.com" <alternate-history@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Saturday, March 29, 2014 9:57 AM
      Subject: RE: [alternate-history] America Falls: 1976

      This seems a pretty unlikely scenario, mostly in that it hinges on a Soviet Leadership acting in a way counter to both their historical precedent and their historical objectives.  Granted it also I think overstates the power of the presidency.  McGoverns intent is all well and good, but what he could actualize through the political process is up in the air.  The US military-industrial complex wasn't as powerful in 1972 as it is today, but it certainly had immense power throughout congress.  Military Cuts at a 50% level might have been possible, indeed I would hope they would be, but how and in what way they would be executed.

      The other thing of course is that by 1972, even with an 80% reduction in Nuclear Forces the US would still have the capacity, within Minutes, to inflict catastrophic losses on the Soviet Union.  The Soviets were never going to launch a pre-emptive Nuclear Attack on the US.  Indeed their entire military strategy in regards Nuclear weapons was based on assumptions of US per-emptive Strikes.  We're talking about the Brezhnev era here.  These guys are mid-level Technocrats who survived Stalinist Purges, they have way too many of their own problems to deal with to be worried about some elaborate plot for Global domination.  In order for this scenario to work you'd need a radical change within Soviet Leadership.

      To: alternate-history@yahoogroups.com
      From: author2c@...
      Date: Fri, 28 Mar 2014 21:54:52 -0700
      Subject: [alternate-history] America Falls: 1976

      1972: Disgraced by revelations of criminal activity in his administration, Richard M. Nixon loses the 1972 presidential campaign to Democrat George McGovern.
      1973: With the signing of the Paris Peace Accords, the Vietnam war is brought to an end. Under investigation for abuse of power, the CIA and NSA are cut by 80%.  McGovern administration has already cut the US military by over 50%, ended the draft and over the next three years eliminates all US nuclear weapons in europe, shrinks the army to 5 divisions, the Navy to 6 aircraft carriers and signs arms control agreements with the USSR that will eliminate 80% of all strategic nuclear weapons. US ICBM force is cut by 60%. The B-52 is eliminated from American service as too destabilizing. B-1 Bomber, Minuteman III missile and Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine programs are cancelled.
      1975: North Vietnamese forces invade the Republic of Vietnam and unite Vietnam under communist leadership. US forces are withdrawn from both the Republic of Korea and Japan.
      1976: With the aid of half a million Chinese "Volunteers", North Korea invades the Republic of Korea. Pres. McGovern is strongly criticized for refusing to aid the ROK, citing that the ROK government is actually "a ruthless military dictatorship at odds with American values". Extensive protests through the US. California Governer Ronald Reagan announces his candidacy for the Presidency on a platform of traditional american values and restoring American military strength.
      July 4th, 1976: A surprise soviet nuclear strike catches all but one of the remaining US nuclear missile subs in port, takes out two thirds of the remaining Minuteman missile siloes. It is later revealed that the Soviets had kept over half of the nuclear weapons that were to have been destroyed under the terms of the arms control agreement.
      With information gained through the John Walker spy ring, all but one US Navy Carrier is destroyed in the first attack. Nuclear strikes are also made against French and British airbases and submarine bases. Warsaw Pact forces launch a massive invasion of all NATO territories. Thanks to the John Walker spy ring and the Conrad-Szabo spy ring in europe, Warsaw Pact forces have categorical knowledge of NATO units, command procedures, communications and codes. All NATO headquarters of corps level or above are destroyed within 24 hours of the beginning of hostilities. 
      The US Army in europe, "The Hollow Force", much reduced in manpower and rife with drug and racial conflicts, collapses in 72 hours. 
      France, Britain and the US retaliate with what nuclear forces remain, taking out Vladivostok, Kiev and several dozen targets inside the Soviet Union. Soviet command and control and second-strike nuclear capability remains intact. USSR threatens massive retaliatory strikes against any nation which continues resistance. Italy declares a Soviet Government on July 18th and announces that it is leaving NATO. Soviet forces reach the Rhine on July 25, 1976. 
      In a Washington DC that has not yet been hit by nuclear weapons but is already experiencing fallout from Soviet nuclear strikes farther west, the US government is informed that they must surrender to the Soviet Union by midnight, July 27, or face Soviet nuclear strikes on all American cities of over 100,000 population.
      At ten minutes until midnight, July 27, 1976, President George McGovern orders all US units to cease resistance to Soviet, Chinese and Warsaw Pact forces and signs the treaty of peace and fraternal cooperation with the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

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