GEOSTATS: sequential prediction and its uncertainty
- Dear All,
I have a polygonal dataset of, say, villages.
Di,j is an attribute variable of village (i) in year (j).
Di,j is a diffusive factor, such as the coverage of pest.
Following linear regression equation was found.
Di,j = a * Di,j-1 + b * Si,j-1 + c� -----(1)
where Si,j-1 is the summation of "Dk,j"
of the neighbouring villages (k) which are adjacent to village (i).
By way of (1), Di,j+1, or the coverage of pest in the next year
can be predicted for all the villages.
Di,j+2, the coverage 2 years after, could also be predicted
by putting these Di,j+1 into equation (1).
In this way, Di,j+n, the coverage in far future
can be calculated sequentially.
The problem is its uncertainty.� How can I estimate
the degree of uncertainty of such predicted values?
Is it possible to obtain it in the form of
confidence interval or standard error?
Thank you very much for your advice in advance.
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