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GEOSTATS: sequential prediction and its uncertainty

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  • Yoshiro Nagao
    Dear All, I have a polygonal dataset of, say, villages. Di,j is an attribute variable of village (i) in year (j). Di,j is a diffusive factor, such as the
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 20, 1999
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      Dear All,

      I have a polygonal dataset of, say, villages.

      Di,j is an attribute variable of village (i) in year (j).

      Di,j is a diffusive factor, such as the coverage of pest.

      Following linear regression equation was found.

      Di,j = a * Di,j-1 + b * Si,j-1 + c� -----(1)

      where Si,j-1 is the summation of "Dk,j"
      of the neighbouring villages (k) which are adjacent to village (i).

      By way of (1), Di,j+1, or the coverage of pest in the next year
      can be predicted for all the villages.
      Di,j+2, the coverage 2 years after, could also be predicted
      by putting these Di,j+1 into equation (1).

      In this way, Di,j+n, the coverage in far future
      can be calculated sequentially.

      The problem is its uncertainty.� How can I estimate
      the degree of uncertainty of such predicted values?
      Is it possible to obtain it in the form of
      confidence interval or standard error?

      Thank you very much for your advice in advance.

      Yoshiro Nagao

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