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Re: Virgin River way down?

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  • Joe Braun
    Continuing the numbers game since I love checking the USGS North Fork water guage and comparing it to the Kolob SNOTEL report... The Virgin River is now in
    Message 1 of 8 , May 1, 2013
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      Continuing the numbers game since I love checking the USGS North Fork water guage and comparing it to the Kolob SNOTEL report... The Virgin River is now in flood mode spending the last 4 days well above 100cfs. This corresponds to a big meltoff above; in April, we averaged maybe one inch of snow meltoff a day. Over the past week, we're seeing 3-7 inches of snowmelt a day which is making the Virgin spike. The Kolob snow depth is down to only 6 inches now, so I'm betting that the Virgin will go well under 100cfs in the next 5 days.

      This is several days ahead of last year which was already a very wimpy spring runoff year. -Joe

      --- In Zion_National_Park_Hiking@yahoogroups.com, "Glenn Ray" <glennlray@...> wrote:
      >
      > Because I'm a numbers junkie, I've plotted the North Fork river levels for 2012 and 2013. It looks down from last year with no positive trend in sight.
      >
      > The spike in mid-January came right after an equipment malfunction, so it may be related to that (the peak was 10.04 feet).
      >
    • Glenn Ray
      You nailed it Joe. The flood mode peaked on April 30 and has been dropping since. What s unusual is that the daily cycles have stopped since May 1 and haven t
      Message 2 of 8 , May 4, 2013
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        You nailed it Joe. The flood mode peaked on April 30 and has been dropping since.

        What's unusual is that the daily cycles have stopped since May 1 and haven't been above 150 cfs (the cutoff rate) since. It's almost as if something's damming it all up.

        --- In Zion_National_Park_Hiking@yahoogroups.com, "Joe Braun" <joe@...> wrote:
        >
        > Continuing the numbers game since I love checking the USGS North Fork water guage and comparing it to the Kolob SNOTEL report... The Virgin River is now in flood mode spending the last 4 days well above 100cfs. This corresponds to a big meltoff above; in April, we averaged maybe one inch of snow meltoff a day. Over the past week, we're seeing 3-7 inches of snowmelt a day which is making the Virgin spike. The Kolob snow depth is down to only 6 inches now, so I'm betting that the Virgin will go well under 100cfs in the next 5 days.
        >
        > This is several days ahead of last year which was already a very wimpy spring runoff year. -Joe
        >
        > --- In Zion_National_Park_Hiking@yahoogroups.com, "Glenn Ray" <glennlray@> wrote:
        > >
        > > Because I'm a numbers junkie, I've plotted the North Fork river levels for 2012 and 2013. It looks down from last year with no positive trend in sight.
        > >
        > > The spike in mid-January came right after an equipment malfunction, so it may be related to that (the peak was 10.04 feet).
        > >
        >
      • Cliff
        I find it interesting that the north fork is so low, and yet the east fork is right at average. Could there have been that much difference in snow levels, or
        Message 3 of 8 , May 5, 2013
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          I find it interesting that the north fork is so low, and yet the east fork is right at average. Could there have been that much difference in snow levels, or in rate of melting? Cliff


          --- In Zion_National_Park_Hiking@yahoogroups.com, "Glenn Ray" <glennlray@...> wrote:
          >
          > You nailed it Joe. The flood mode peaked on April 30 and has been dropping since.
          >
          > What's unusual is that the daily cycles have stopped since May 1 and haven't been above 150 cfs (the cutoff rate) since. It's almost as if something's damming it all up.
          >
          > --- In Zion_National_Park_Hiking@yahoogroups.com, "Joe Braun" <joe@> wrote:
          > >
          > > Continuing the numbers game since I love checking the USGS North Fork water guage and comparing it to the Kolob SNOTEL report... The Virgin River is now in flood mode spending the last 4 days well above 100cfs. This corresponds to a big meltoff above; in April, we averaged maybe one inch of snow meltoff a day. Over the past week, we're seeing 3-7 inches of snowmelt a day which is making the Virgin spike. The Kolob snow depth is down to only 6 inches now, so I'm betting that the Virgin will go well under 100cfs in the next 5 days.
          > >
          > > This is several days ahead of last year which was already a very wimpy spring runoff year. -Joe
          > >
          > > --- In Zion_National_Park_Hiking@yahoogroups.com, "Glenn Ray" <glennlray@> wrote:
          > > >
          > > > Because I'm a numbers junkie, I've plotted the North Fork river levels for 2012 and 2013. It looks down from last year with no positive trend in sight.
          > > >
          > > > The spike in mid-January came right after an equipment malfunction, so it may be related to that (the peak was 10.04 feet).
          > > >
          > >
          >
        • TomJones
          The North Fork has a lot of drainage basin up high by Navajo Lake (etc), while the East Fork has a lot less high-altitude basin. This was a strange year for
          Message 4 of 8 , May 6, 2013
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            The North Fork has a lot of drainage basin up high by Navajo Lake (etc), while the East Fork has a lot less high-altitude basin.

            This was a strange year for snow. There is and was considerable snow on high-altitude areas, but very little at mid-altitudes. So the melt-out cycle has...

            Wait, shouldn't it go the other way?

            No, not really. In a normal year, the East Fork finishes flooding way before the North Fork. By May 1, the East Fork should be totally done, while in a "normal" year, the high-altitude stuff in the North Fork would be in the middle of its melt. This year, I think the North Fork is low because there is no mid-altitude snow, the only flood-level melt is from the high altitude snow which is not enough to create a real flood in the North Fork.

            Tom

            --- In Zion_National_Park_Hiking@yahoogroups.com, "Cliff" <kol84b@...> wrote:
            >
            > I find it interesting that the north fork is so low, and yet the east fork is right at average. Could there have been that much difference in snow levels, or in rate of melting? Cliff
            >
            >
            > --- In Zion_National_Park_Hiking@yahoogroups.com, "Glenn Ray" <glennlray@> wrote:
            > >
            > > You nailed it Joe. The flood mode peaked on April 30 and has been dropping since.
            > >
            > > What's unusual is that the daily cycles have stopped since May 1 and haven't been above 150 cfs (the cutoff rate) since. It's almost as if something's damming it all up.
            > >
            > > --- In Zion_National_Park_Hiking@yahoogroups.com, "Joe Braun" <joe@> wrote:
            > > >
            > > > Continuing the numbers game since I love checking the USGS North Fork water guage and comparing it to the Kolob SNOTEL report... The Virgin River is now in flood mode spending the last 4 days well above 100cfs. This corresponds to a big meltoff above; in April, we averaged maybe one inch of snow meltoff a day. Over the past week, we're seeing 3-7 inches of snowmelt a day which is making the Virgin spike. The Kolob snow depth is down to only 6 inches now, so I'm betting that the Virgin will go well under 100cfs in the next 5 days.
            > > >
            > > > This is several days ahead of last year which was already a very wimpy spring runoff year. -Joe
            > > >
            > > > --- In Zion_National_Park_Hiking@yahoogroups.com, "Glenn Ray" <glennlray@> wrote:
            > > > >
            > > > > Because I'm a numbers junkie, I've plotted the North Fork river levels for 2012 and 2013. It looks down from last year with no positive trend in sight.
            > > > >
            > > > > The spike in mid-January came right after an equipment malfunction, so it may be related to that (the peak was 10.04 feet).
            > > > >
            > > >
            > >
            >
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