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scenarios for mobility levels in 2050

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  • Eric Britton
    ... From: John Whitelegg [mailto:John.Whitelegg@phonecoop.coop] Eric (please can you circulate this widely through all your networks. I would be very
    Message 1 of 3 , Aug 3, 2006
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      -----Original Message-----
      From: John Whitelegg [mailto:John.Whitelegg@...]
       

      Eric (please can you circulate this widely through all your networks.  I would be very grateful)

       

      I am currently struggling with trying to work out probable/likely scenarios for mobility levels in 2050 globally (to include China, India and other regional groupings).

       

      I am also thinking of a special issue of WTPP focusing on a set of visions or scenarios for 2050.  Basically "what will life be like in 2050".

       

      For now I am simply trying to access forecasts or scenarios that cover any or all of the following up to 2050:

       

      o              car ownership

      o              car use (mile driven per capita per annum)

      o              car sales per annum

      o              fuel use

      o              trips by air per capita per annum

      o              number of aircraft

       

      If anyone can help with pointers or reports or data sets of relevance to this task then please contact  John Whitelegg

       

       

      many thanks

       

      very best wishes

       

      John

       

       

       

       

       

       

    • Edward A Beimborn
      The year 2050 was a theme in a graduate course we had at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee in the fall semester 2003. The course had a mixture of urban
      Message 2 of 3 , Aug 4, 2006
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        The year 2050 was a theme in a graduate course we had at the University
        of Wisconsin-Milwaukee in the fall semester 2003. The course had a mixture
        of urban planning and engineering students and each was asked to prepare
        a background paper related to issues and trends and future directions.
        We dealt with issues of sustainabilty, population, energy and demographic
        trends, smart growth, globalism, changing technology and climate change.
        Some of these are posted on the web site:

        http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/CUTS/2050/

        It was a great topic for a seminar class, since most of the students
        in college today will still be working in the year 2050 and will be affected
        by trends to that time, and will also shape the future themselves. I would
        suggest it for anyone teching a similar course. An interesting aspect was to
        look at a couple papers written 20-30 years ago and to compare what was
        said then and what happened. More details on the course
        and related background materials is at:

        http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/CUTS/ce790/index.html

        Edward Beimborn
        University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee


        On Thu, Aug 03, 2006 at 07:33:26PM +0200, Eric Britton wrote:
        > -----Original Message-----
        > From: John Whitelegg [mailto:John.Whitelegg@...]
        >
        > Eric (please can you circulate this widely through all your networks. I would
        > be very grateful)
        >
        > I am currently struggling with trying to work out probable/likely scenarios for
        > mobility levels in 2050 globally (to include China, India and other regional
        > groupings).
        >
        >
        >
        > I am also thinking of a special issue of WTPP focusing on a set of visions or
        > scenarios for 2050. Basically "what will life be like in 2050".
        >
        >
        >
        > For now I am simply trying to access forecasts or scenarios that cover any or
        > all of the following up to 2050:
        >
        >
        >
        > o car ownership
        >
        > o car use (mile driven per capita per annum)
        >
        > o car sales per annum
        >
        > o fuel use
        >
        > o trips by air per capita per annum
        >
        > o number of aircraft
        >
        >
        >
        > If anyone can help with pointers or reports or data sets of relevance to this
        > task then please contact John Whitelegg
        >
        >
        >
        > john.whitelegg@...
        >
        >
        >
        > many thanks
        >
        >
        >
        > very best wishes
        >
        >
        > John
        >

        --
      • John Thackara
        The archive of that summer course contains some excellent work. It s also a reminder that, for 90% of issues I ever encountered, the challenge is not getting
        Message 3 of 3 , Aug 5, 2006
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          The archive of that summer course contains some excellent work. It's
          also a reminder that, for 90% of issues I ever encountered, the
          challenge is not getting people to do the work - but to make widely-
          known, work that has already been done.

          I don't want to distract people from answering John Whitelegg's
          request, but I do have a supplementary request of my own. One of the
          papers from that summer course, by Ryan Horton, mentions "under the
          radar" military or political actions to do with energy supplies.
          Horton quotes an event in Bolivia, for example, that I never heard
          about before:

          http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/CUTS/2050/energy.pdf

          We must all know of stories such as the one I received today about
          the battle over geothermal energy in Iceland, for example:

          http://www.savingiceland.org/

          My question is this: is someone already collecting and collating
          stories about these kinds of under the radar battles for control over
          energy and resources?

          John Thackara






          On Aug 4, 2006, at 6:39 PM, Edward A Beimborn wrote:

          > The year 2050 was a theme in a graduate course we had at the
          > University
          > of Wisconsin-Milwaukee in the fall semester 2003. The course had a
          > mixture
          > of urban planning and engineering students and each was asked to
          > prepare
          > a background paper related to issues and trends and future directions.
          > We dealt with issues of sustainabilty, population, energy and
          > demographic
          > trends, smart growth, globalism, changing technology and climate
          > change.
          > Some of these are posted on the web site:
          >
          > http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/CUTS/2050/
          >
          > It was a great topic for a seminar class, since most of the students
          > in college today will still be working in the year 2050 and will be
          > affected
          > by trends to that time, and will also shape the future themselves.
          > I would
          > suggest it for anyone teching a similar course. An interesting
          > aspect was to
          > look at a couple papers written 20-30 years ago and to compare what
          > was
          > said then and what happened. More details on the course
          > and related background materials is at:
          >
          > http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/CUTS/ce790/index.html
          >
          > Edward Beimborn
          > University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
          >
          >
          > On Thu, Aug 03, 2006 at 07:33:26PM +0200, Eric Britton wrote:
          >> -----Original Message-----
          >> From: John Whitelegg [mailto:John.Whitelegg@...]
          >>
          >> Eric (please can you circulate this widely through all your
          >> networks. I would
          >> be very grateful)
          >>
          >> I am currently struggling with trying to work out probable/likely
          >> scenarios for
          >> mobility levels in 2050 globally (to include China, India and
          >> other regional
          >> groupings).
          >>
          >>
          >>
          >> I am also thinking of a special issue of WTPP focusing on a set of
          >> visions or
          >> scenarios for 2050. Basically "what will life be like in 2050".
          >>
          >>
          >>
          >> For now I am simply trying to access forecasts or scenarios that
          >> cover any or
          >> all of the following up to 2050:
          >>
          >>
          >>
          >> o car ownership
          >>
          >> o car use (mile driven per capita per annum)
          >>
          >> o car sales per annum
          >>
          >> o fuel use
          >>
          >> o trips by air per capita per annum
          >>
          >> o number of aircraft
          >>
          >>
          >>
          >> If anyone can help with pointers or reports or data sets of
          >> relevance to this
          >> task then please contact John Whitelegg
          >>
          >>
          >>
          >> john.whitelegg@...
          >>
          >>
          >>
          >> many thanks
          >>
          >>
          >>
          >> very best wishes
          >>
          >>
          >> John
          >>
          >
          > --
          >
          >
          >
          >
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