- ... Actually mathematics says that if you toss a coin and get tail ten times in a row, the next time you toss the coin, the chances are still one to two to getMessage 1 of 46 , Sep 1, 2009View Source
> From: Gary Shepherd [gshepher@...]Actually mathematics says that if you toss a coin and get tail ten times in a row, the next time you toss the coin, the chances are still one to two to get a tail.
> Someone once said that if there is a 1 in 1,000 chance in any given year that there
> will be a nuclear war that will exterminate the human race, that means in 1,000
> years there is a 100 percent chance there will be such a war.
But I digress, Gary: I agree with you that we should get rid of all kind of weapons and the sooner the best.
- ... Oops, sorry for the typo. That is the probability in 1000 years, not 100.Message 46 of 46 , Sep 11, 2009View Source--- In WorldCitizen@yahoogroups.com, "Gary Shepherd" <gshepher@...> wrote:
>Oops, sorry for the typo. That is the probability in 1000 years, not 100.
> Is that how it works out mathematically? I wasn't aware there was a
> formula for cumulating probability like that. Anyway it still makes the
> point. If I thought here was a 62 percent chance of rain, I'd bring my
> World Peace and Unity,
> From: WorldCitizen@yahoogroups.com [mailto:WorldCitizen@yahoogroups.com]
> On Behalf Of jodemas2
> Sent: Friday, September 04, 2009 1:14 AM
> To: WorldCitizen@yahoogroups.com
> Subject: [WorldCitizen] Re: A democratic world government.
> If in each year, the chance of no nuclear war is .999, then in 100 years
> the probability of no nuclear war is .999 to the power 1000, or 36.8%,
> or there is a probability of 62.8% that there will be a nuclear war. Not
> 100%, but likely.