Limits to Growth and 2030 collapse
- There was a controversial study titled "Limits to Growth" written in the early 1970s by an international think-tank, The Club of Rome.
They looked at the obvious situation that the growth rate such that existed in about 1970 could not continue very long without dire consequences. From there, they made an assortment of predictions about what would occur if the current (in 1970) situation continued for a few more decades. They based this on looking at five global economic subsystems, namely: population, food production, industrial production, pollution, and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. We're on track for 2010 on what their 40-year-old study predicted.
The prediction is that in approximately 2030, if nothing substantial changes, and human beings continue to consume more than nature was capable of providing, and pollute more than nature is able to replenish itself, global economic collapse and population decline would be the likely result.
Read http://www.manicore.com/fichiers/Turner_Meadows_vs_historical_data.pdf for a 2008 analysis of the situation. It makes for some grim reading.
What they said was 60 years away when they predicted it. It's only another 17 years now until 2030. It's probably too late now to stave this off - although we might be able to delay it just a bit. We probably could have had we reduced or limited population in 1970, used fuels and land more wisely then, their predictions could have had some benefit. But, that would have interfered with growth in manufacturing and made energy more expensive. Now... about the best we can do is refrain from producing more humans to suffer and die in the collapse.