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Potentially Dangerous Weather Situation developing for Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas and Northeastern Texas Tue Feb 10 2009.

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  • Brian R Cross
    Issued Monday, February 09, 2009 at 9:12 PM CST. Potentially Dangerous Weather Situation developing for Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas and Northeastern
    Message 1 of 1 , Feb 9 7:13 PM
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      Issued Monday, February 09, 2009 at 9:12 PM CST.

      Potentially Dangerous Weather Situation developing for Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas and Northeastern Texas Tue Feb 10 2009.



      Good evening,


      Late this evening conditions are calm after this morning’s round of showers and thunderstorms.  Several locations in Southwestern Missouri, Southeastern Kansas and Northwestern Arkansas reported wind gusts to near 60 MPH as the line passed through during the mid morning hours.  In Northeastern Oklahoma heavy rainfall and wind gusts to around 50 MPH were common as the dry-line and showers and thunderstorms associated with the dry-line passed through during the early morning hours before Sunrise.  No significant damage was reported from this activity. 


      The system responsible for the showers and thunderstorms this morning has passed into the Midwestern, Ohio, and Tennessee valley area and has left the area. 


      Behind this system winds have become southwesterly and conditions are much dryer producing high fire dangers across all of the area with the warming temperatures and strong winds through the afternoon.  Temperatures warned into the mid 60’s to mid 70’s across much of the area as relative humidity values fell into the mid 20% range late this afternoon across far Northwestern Oklahoma. 


      As of 6 PM the boundary responsible for the showers and thunderstorms had become stationary and extended from West Central Missouri southwest to parallel I-44 through Joplin, Miami, Tulsa, to near Pregue south to near Ada Oklahoma to near the Gainsville Texas area and further south.  This boundary will rapidly evict northward during the early morning on Tuesday bringing a return to Gulf moisture to the area ahead of another potent upper-level storm system approaching the area from the northwest. 


      As the upper-level storm moves through the area late afternoon on Tuesday deep sheering will begin to affect the area ahead of a frontal boundary that will move southeast through the area during that period.  Ahead of the front CAPE values will reach the 2,200 j / kg range and lifted index values will range from –4 to –8 over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas ahead of the front.  Along the front sheering and daytime heating will destabilize the atmosphere allowing for a squall-line to develop with the frontal passage.  Where the atmosphere becomes extremely unstable and CAPE values maximize in conjunction with the increased low-level surface winds isolated discrete super-cell development will be possible after 4 PM over far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas ahead of the squall-line.  These super-cells will then have the capability to become enhanced super-cells with the potential to produce large and destructive tornadoes over far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern and Western Arkansas generally south and east of a Mountain Home Arkansas to Fayetteville to Tahlequah Oklahoma to Shawnee to Ardmore Oklahoma to Gainsville Texas to Plaino Texas to Oakcliff to Texarkana line in the district. 


      Large and destructive tornadoes are tornadoes that have the potential to cause EF-2 to EF-5 damage or damage that can be a minimum of lifting the rooftops from houses and more. 


      If super-cells develop the best time would be after 4 PM with super-cells continuing to develop through Midnight when heating and increased sheering is expected to be greatest ahead of the front and upper-storm system.  These are expected to be high-precipitation producing storms with the potential for rain-wrapped tornadoes increasing as the night progresses.  In addition to the rain-wrapped tornado threat there is the possibility that super-cell generated tornadoes would occur at night while many are sleeping.  During the night time hours rain-wrapped tornadoes are hard to spot and seasoned storm-spotters are best suited for this kind of spotting duty. 


      In the squall-line that develops the main threat will be from strong straight-line winds of between 55 and 70 MPH and hail f up to half-dollar sized any time after 1 PM.  In the larger super-cells that develop it is possible that hail of up to baseball sized, and winds of 80 MPH could affect those under any super-cells that pass through or develop. 


      Another threat is the potential for heavy rainfall given the rapid and large amount of moisture returning to the area.  Some locations that see super-cells move through their area may later be affected by the squall-line adding to the already existent rainfall totals.  Flash flooding may be a threat for several areas especially over far Southeastern and Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern and Western Arkansas overnight on Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. 


      Residents are urged to monitor for the latest severe weather information and if you have a National Service Weather or All Hazard Radio properly maintain it by insuring it is in good working order and has backup batteries during this potentially dangerous severe weather situation. 


      Beginning at Noon I will be on the computer monitoring radars and all severe weather services to insure that the latest information can be passed on to you through the evening and overnight hours.  If you need specialized tracking of the severe weather please contact me by e-mail and give your best method of contact such as e-mail, chat, cell phone, etc, and information on how you can be best reached using the quickest method of contact.  I can be reached at (918) 961-1364 any time tomorrow by phone or by e-mail at BRCross2768@... - for speech readers that’s B R Cross at S B C Global dot net for my e-mail address.  Messenger services will be active and I can respond either by PC or by cell-phone if I loose my Internet connection. 


      For as long as I have an Internet connection radar services will remain active.  Updates continue to work properly and you can have a sighted person view them if you need them at the following address on the web or those who have sight may download the images as they are updated from my terminal from the same. 


      • Tulsa National Service Radar viewed from the digital high or super-resolution image with frontal boundary, temperature, severe weather outlook, and severe weather watch and weather station overlays – www.oklahomathunder.150m.com/kinx_level2.jpg - this is a temporary site and may exceed it’s bandwith limitations.  For speech reader purposes that’s w w w dot Oklahoma thunder as one word followed by a dot and the numbers 1 5 0 and the letter m ad in Mary dot com forward slash k I n x then the underline or shift of the dash key followed by the word level then the number 2 then dot then the letters j p g. 


      In the event that the bandwith limitation or Internet connectivity is lost I will continue to update you by phone through multimidea services out of my cell phone through my owned group at the following web address.  Messages at that point would be posted to the group with a sound file attached to each message and photos if there are any storm photos from damage here should it occur.  The only owned group where this takes place is Oklahoma Weather at the following web address as a yahoo group on Yahoo Grups. 


      • http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/okweatherboard/ - Oklahoma Weatherboard.  For speech reader purposes that’s h t t p followed by two forward slashes then the word tech dot groups dot yahoo dot com, then forward slash group, forward slash o k weatherboard as one word and then the forward slash.  Press return after entering that and wait for the grop’s page to load. 


      On the page you’ll also find the two radars – clicking on each of the images for either the Oklahoma City or Tulsa radars for my system’s uploads should allow you to view the larger image. 


      Early warning systems that draw directly from the National Weather Service Emergency Messaging services will activated around Noon on Tuesday when I am at the terminal. 


      Those involved in spotting and those involved in the Office of Emergency Management should prepare for activation as all modes of severe weather are expected during the day on Tuesday. 


      Because of the potential for significant dangers in this kind of situation this will also be posted as an unusual step on Miami Oklahoma CafĂ© to insure safety for those who might need this while out during the day on Tuesday.  As the owner of this group it is my decision to post on that group this kind of information.  This is not usually taken but as explained will be in this situation only where a potentially dangerous issue is possible of this magnitude. 


      Brian R Cross.


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