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Re: Luck vs. Skill

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  • scud@theredstar.net
    heh ... i divided by 2^30 twice the first time, that would make it just a little bit smaller ... should pay more attention to the calculator i m cheering on.
    Message 1 of 7 , Mar 16, 2001
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      heh ... i divided by 2^30 twice the first time, that would make it
      just a little bit smaller ... should pay more attention to the
      calculator i'm cheering on. later -- jake.

      > > (by contrast, in a completely random
      contest
      > > where each person has a 50% chance of winning, the probability of
      > > winning 24 or more out of 30 is 6.66x10^-13, yay calculator).
      later -
      >
      > The chance of any specific outcome in a sequence of 30 two-player
      > games is 1/(2^30), and the number of possible N-game streaks is
      > 30!/(N!(30-N)!), so the total number of possible streaks of at least
      > 24 games out of 30 is 768212 (593775 + 142506 + 27405 + 4060 + 435
      +30
      > +1) which makes the total probability 768212/(2^30) = 7.15x10-4
      which
      > is substantially higher. Which means the chances are 7.15 in
      10,000,
      > rather than the 4 I had estimated in my previous mail.
      >
      > ...Matthew
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