Re: Luck vs. Skill
- heh ... i divided by 2^30 twice the first time, that would make it
just a little bit smaller ... should pay more attention to the
calculator i'm cheering on. later -- jake.
> > (by contrast, in a completely randomcontest
> > where each person has a 50% chance of winning, the probability oflater -
> > winning 24 or more out of 30 is 6.66x10^-13, yay calculator).
> The chance of any specific outcome in a sequence of 30 two-player
> games is 1/(2^30), and the number of possible N-game streaks is
> 30!/(N!(30-N)!), so the total number of possible streaks of at least
> 24 games out of 30 is 768212 (593775 + 142506 + 27405 + 4060 + 435
> +1) which makes the total probability 768212/(2^30) = 7.15x10-4which
> is substantially higher. Which means the chances are 7.15 in10,000,
> rather than the 4 I had estimated in my previous mail.