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Thoughts on Sanford & Iowa & Strategy

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  • Bruno Behrend
    Ray and all, Your post describing how the caucuses work is fascinating, and has triggered a great many thoughts and ideas that I ve been wanting to test for
    Message 1 of 9 , Nov 4, 2004
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      Ray and all,
       
      Your post describing how the caucuses work is fascinating, and has triggered a great many thoughts and ideas that I've been wanting to test for ages.
       
      First of all, as I posted on the other list, what are RLC's resources? Has there been any history of fundraising?  Are there any limits on the size of donations?
       
      The reason I ask should be obvious.  Here we are, a bunch of policy wonk, pseudo-intellectual computer nerds, talking about getting Mark Sanford elected president in four years.  As funny as it sounds, this exactly the type of conversations I think we should be having (as well as small races).  But let's face it.  Without resources, it's pretty silly conversation.
       
      Second, the reason I'm asking about resources comes as a direct result of your explanation of the caucuses.  Though I've always been skeptical of process that injects "herd mentality" into the selection of a potential president, I must admit that it does allow for a cadre of intellectual insurgents to "game the system" and pull off a coup.  (How's that for thinking like a neocon.)
       
      One problem with the "Liberty" movement is that is so diffuse as to never succeeded in any one place.  The unique nature of the Iowa caucuses, combined with the clout that comes from a New Hampshire win, combined with assure win in South Carolina, might afford a small group like the RLC to have quite an impact.
       
      However, it seems clear to me that the only way we could ever have such an impact would be for all the resources of the RLC chapters around the country to focus on three specific states; Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan.  While we may all be getting a little bit ahead of ourselves, Sanford winning these for races would make a prohibitive favorite to win the nomination.  He will probably crush Hillary.
       
      If we want to do a test run of how effective the RLC can be, we need to start now.  I'd suggest beginning planning phases for training mini-Rays and mini-Brunos to sway Caucus attendees.  (I'm in Illinois, and also have some of the God-given talents Ray speaks of.)  The other area that we can apply resources toward is organizing at the precinct level.
       
      Question for Ray.  Does Iowa Republican Party have anything similar to the Democratic Party's snappy database that I've read about in the papers?  If not, the sources and technology exists to create it inexpensively without having to deal with Iowa party hacks -- who are all probably McCain worshipers anyway.
       
      Question for Bill.  Is there a New Hampshire RLC?  If not, let's start one.  Next, what about Mike Hewitt in Michigan?  Is he on this action list?  Is another Michigan person here?
       
      Question for all.  How willing and how capable are all of us in terms of marshaling resources to focus on these items in the near-term.  Do we have any contacts with Sanford, who may have some fundraising resources that he may point toward the RLC for the specific purpose.
       
      I'm great with ideas, and occasionally OK with execution.  But I'm probably the wrong person to "write this up" as specific plan.  If we start collaborating on something like this early, we may just be able to get the jump on others.
       
      I leave you with this thought from one of my favorite authors/poet.
       
      ________
       
      Until one is committed, there is hesitancy, the chance to draw back, always ineffectiveness. Concerning all acts of initiative and creation, there is one elementary truth the ignorance of which kills countless ideas and splendid plans: that the moment one definitely commits oneself, then providence moves too. All sorts of things occur to help one that would never otherwise have occurred. A whole stream of events issues from the decision, raising in one's favor all manner of unforeseen incidents, meetings and material assistance which no man could have dreamed would have come his way. Whatever you can do or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power and magic in it. Begin it now.
       
      Goethe
    • Tony Lekas
      There is an effort underway to start a NH chapter of the RLC. Tim Condon may have more details on the current status of that effort. I have not been following
      Message 2 of 9 , Nov 4, 2004
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        There is an effort underway to start a NH chapter of the RLC.  Tim Condon may have more details on the current status of that effort.

        I have not been following this for long.  Who is Sanford?  Are you looking at him for a Rep presidential candidate in 08?

        If so you will need to get a significant amount of support from the GOP organization in NH and elsewhere.  He would not necessarily need to be the favorite of them all but he would have to be at least somewhat acceptable.  In particular they have to believe that he could win in the general election.

        This election did not go well for the GOP in NH.  Benson lost.  Seats in the house, senate, and executive council were lost although the GOP still dominates all three bodies.  Here is my take on some of what went wrong:

        -Benson was an outsider and was opposed by some of the established RINO Republican politicians.  In some cases in public.  He was too libertarian and many Republicans here are really moderate Democrats.

        -Either for that reason, Benson's lack of organization, or other things, from what I saw the GOP was very disorganized on the ground in this election.  I was working the polls all day and talked to a lot of folks.  There were polling places without even anyone holding Bush or Benson signs.  At the same places there were many Dems with signs.  They had an organized schedule for shifts.  I was there almost all day so there would be some presence.  There were some other Republicans off and on but never as many as the Dems.    I don't know details on the relative GOTV efforts but my impression is that the Dems did more.  There were a lot of GOP robo calls, but those are not very useful.

        -The Dems REALLY had their act together.  Very well organized and funded.  Bus loads of MA residents up here doing GOTV, waving signs, etc.  The Dems were WAY more visible on election day.

        Tony



        Bruno Behrend wrote:
        Ray and all,
         
        Your post describing how the caucuses work is fascinating, and has triggered a great many thoughts and ideas that I've been wanting to test for ages.
         
        First of all, as I posted on the other list, what are RLC's resources? Has there been any history of fundraising?  Are there any limits on the size of donations?
         
        The reason I ask should be obvious.  Here we are, a bunch of policy wonk, pseudo-intellectual computer nerds, talking about getting Mark Sanford elected president in four years.  As funny as it sounds, this exactly the type of conversations I think we should be having (as well as small races).  But let's face it.  Without resources, it's pretty silly conversation.
         
        Second, the reason I'm asking about resources comes as a direct result of your explanation of the caucuses.  Though I've always been skeptical of process that injects "herd mentality" into the selection of a potential president, I must admit that it does allow for a cadre of intellectual insurgents to "game the system" and pull off a coup.  (How's that for thinking like a neocon.)
         
        One problem with the "Liberty" movement is that is so diffuse as to never succeeded in any one place.  The unique nature of the Iowa caucuses, combined with the clout that comes from a New Hampshire win, combined with assure win in South Carolina, might afford a small group like the RLC to have quite an impact.
         
        However, it seems clear to me that the only way we could ever have such an impact would be for all the resources of the RLC chapters around the country to focus on three specific states; Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan.  While we may all be getting a little bit ahead of ourselves, Sanford winning these for races would make a prohibitive favorite to win the nomination.  He will probably crush Hillary.
         
        If we want to do a test run of how effective the RLC can be, we need to start now.  I'd suggest beginning planning phases for training mini-Rays and mini-Brunos to sway Caucus attendees.  (I'm in Illinois, and also have some of the God-given talents Ray speaks of.)  The other area that we can apply resources toward is organizing at the precinct level.
         
        Question for Ray.  Does Iowa Republican Party have anything similar to the Democratic Party's snappy database that I've read about in the papers?  If not, the sources and technology exists to create it inexpensively without having to deal with Iowa party hacks -- who are all probably McCain worshipers anyway.
         
        Question for Bill.  Is there a New Hampshire RLC?  If not, let's start one.  Next, what about Mike Hewitt in Michigan?  Is he on this action list?  Is another Michigan person here?
         
        Question for all.  How willing and how capable are all of us in terms of marshaling resources to focus on these items in the near-term.  Do we have any contacts with Sanford, who may have some fundraising resources that he may point toward the RLC for the specific purpose.
         
        I'm great with ideas, and occasionally OK with execution.  But I'm probably the wrong person to "write this up" as specific plan.  If we start collaborating on something like this early, we may just be able to get the jump on others.
         
        I leave you with this thought from one of my favorite authors/poet.
         
        ________
         
        Until one is committed, there is hesitancy, the chance to draw back, always ineffectiveness. Concerning all acts of initiative and creation, there is one elementary truth the ignorance of which kills countless ideas and splendid plans: that the moment one definitely commits oneself, then providence moves too. All sorts of things occur to help one that would never otherwise have occurred. A whole stream of events issues from the decision, raising in one's favor all manner of unforeseen incidents, meetings and material assistance which no man could have dreamed would have come his way. Whatever you can do or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power and magic in it. Begin it now.
         
        Goethe

      • Ray Holtorf
        I m not familiar with the Democrats database - so I cannot tell you if Iowa has anything similar. As far as the Iowa RP party hacks, they will do what they
        Message 3 of 9 , Nov 5, 2004
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          I'm not familiar with the Democrats database - so I cannot tell you if Iowa has anything similar. As far as the Iowa RP "party hacks," they will do what they are told by the RNC - we have a pretty strong herd mentality here in Iowa. Although I will say that the Iowa RP has a very strong, very stubborn, Christian Right tilt. One that would NEVER permit McCain to take Iowa. Probably strong enough to thwart any libertarian as well (unless they have religious right / pro-drug war leanings). Iowa is a tough row to hoe for moderates. Pat Buchanan and Pat Robertson STILL have very strong followings here in Iowa.
          -----Original Message-----
          From: Bruno Behrend [mailto:davincicg@...]
          Sent: Thursday, November 04, 2004 4:26 PM
          To: RLC-Action@yahoogroups.com
          Subject: [RLC-Action] Thoughts on Sanford & Iowa & Strategy

          Ray and all,
           
          Your post describing how the caucuses work is fascinating, and has triggered a great many thoughts and ideas that I've been wanting to test for ages.
           
          First of all, as I posted on the other list, what are RLC's resources? Has there been any history of fundraising?  Are there any limits on the size of donations?
           
          The reason I ask should be obvious.  Here we are, a bunch of policy wonk, pseudo-intellectual computer nerds, talking about getting Mark Sanford elected president in four years.  As funny as it sounds, this exactly the type of conversations I think we should be having (as well as small races).  But let's face it.  Without resources, it's pretty silly conversation.
           
          Second, the reason I'm asking about resources comes as a direct result of your explanation of the caucuses.  Though I've always been skeptical of process that injects "herd mentality" into the selection of a potential president, I must admit that it does allow for a cadre of intellectual insurgents to "game the system" and pull off a coup.  (How's that for thinking like a neocon.)
           
          One problem with the "Liberty" movement is that is so diffuse as to never succeeded in any one place.  The unique nature of the Iowa caucuses, combined with the clout that comes from a New Hampshire win, combined with assure win in South Carolina, might afford a small group like the RLC to have quite an impact.
           
          However, it seems clear to me that the only way we could ever have such an impact would be for all the resources of the RLC chapters around the country to focus on three specific states; Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan.  While we may all be getting a little bit ahead of ourselves, Sanford winning these for races would make a prohibitive favorite to win the nomination.  He will probably crush Hillary.
           
          If we want to do a test run of how effective the RLC can be, we need to start now.  I'd suggest beginning planning phases for training mini-Rays and mini-Brunos to sway Caucus attendees.  (I'm in Illinois, and also have some of the God-given talents Ray speaks of.)  The other area that we can apply resources toward is organizing at the precinct level.
           
          Question for Ray.  Does Iowa Republican Party have anything similar to the Democratic Party's snappy database that I've read about in the papers?  If not, the sources and technology exists to create it inexpensively without having to deal with Iowa party hacks -- who are all probably McCain worshipers anyway.
           
          Question for Bill.  Is there a New Hampshire RLC?  If not, let's start one.  Next, what about Mike Hewitt in Michigan?  Is he on this action list?  Is another Michigan person here?
           
          Question for all.  How willing and how capable are all of us in terms of marshaling resources to focus on these items in the near-term.  Do we have any contacts with Sanford, who may have some fundraising resources that he may point toward the RLC for the specific purpose.
           
          I'm great with ideas, and occasionally OK with execution.  But I'm probably the wrong person to "write this up" as specific plan.  If we start collaborating on something like this early, we may just be able to get the jump on others.
           
          I leave you with this thought from one of my favorite authors/poet.
           
          ________
           
          Until one is committed, there is hesitancy, the chance to draw back, always ineffectiveness. Concerning all acts of initiative and creation, there is one elementary truth the ignorance of which kills countless ideas and splendid plans: that the moment one definitely commits oneself, then providence moves too. All sorts of things occur to help one that would never otherwise have occurred. A whole stream of events issues from the decision, raising in one's favor all manner of unforeseen incidents, meetings and material assistance which no man could have dreamed would have come his way. Whatever you can do or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power and magic in it. Begin it now.
           
          Goethe

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