## Quotas Example

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• Unless you like playing Rock, Paper, Scissors by using the generic defenses (Wild Card, R/P, Nickel, etc.) here is the perfect example demonstrating why the
Message 1 of 6 , Dec 2, 2012
Unless you like playing Rock, Paper, Scissors by using the generic defenses (Wild Card, R/P, Nickel, etc.) here is the perfect example demonstrating why the game needs play call quotas:
BALTIMORE RAVENS PASSING STATS
play comp   attempts    comppct
5    22            32             68.8%
6    131         171           76.6%
7    28            44             63.6%
8    25            76             32.9%
9    32            73              43.8%
238          396             60.1%

Joe Flacco has the worst passing accuracy for pass plays 11+ yards downfield (this stat being published by the NFL on ESPN this morning), ~40%.  I decided to look at the Ravens passing stats in my play by play database that has the pass plays categorized. Looking at 7, 8 and 9 we see completion rates of 63.6%, 32.9% and 43.8% respectively. Wait a second, 63.6% on the medium? The overall completion rate 11+ yards downfield (which includes ALL medium passes) is only 40%, how is this possible? It’s possible because the medium pass accounts for only 44 of 396 attempts ~10%, on average 4 passes per game. Both the Long and Sideline (some sideline passes are < 11 yards – I could eliminate those from the calculation but with a 43.8% rate we can see its quite close to the overall 40% @ 11+ yds so it is safe to assume those sideline passes 11+ yds downfield are those he is less accurate) account for more than double the medium passes (149 of 396) and the combine completion rate is well below the 40% rate.

Without quotas why would a human player ever call the sideline when they have much greater success calling the medium – even if the wild card is allowed. Allowing the defense to use the wild card I know the opponent has a 1 in 9 chance of guessing correctly and if he demonstrates overuse of the wild card in trying to stop medium I can go short or screen... suddenly the game is rock, paper, scissors (although that is one of the game’s core mechanics). It becomes can guess correctly or not. With quotas in place (which so far for BAL the medium pass quota is 9, more than double the average giving plenty of flexibility to the player) I know as the defender I am  not only trying to stop the medium but the other plays as well. I know he has limited use of the medium and because he has limited use he must use the other pass plays. So now I am concerned with finding the formations that fit the situations that I believe will make stop across all plays knowing that every formation has a weakness thus I’m conceding against certain plays while trying to stop others, hence far more strategy involved. And, on offense it is far more challenging as well. I can’t just call Baltimore’s best play, the Medium, as often as I like. I have to be more judicious. This adds strategy and also emulates the NFL. Even though NFL teams try to exploit they know balance has to be in place for long-term success. To justify that claim no team that throws the ball more than 66.67% of the time, and they are DET, NO, ARZ, TEN, OAK, DAL has a winning record. ATL is closest ~66% pass.

If you want to enhance the game and add strategy try using play call quotas and see how the game play changes.
• Does this mean, with quotas, that Baltimore can throw 2 screen passes, 11 short passes, 3 medium passes, 5 long passes, and 5 sideline passes (26 total) per
Message 2 of 6 , Dec 2, 2012
Does this mean, with quotas, that Baltimore can throw 2 screen passes, 11 short passes, 3 medium passes, 5 long passes, and 5 sideline passes (26 total) per game?

I take it that the 26 passes per game encompasses all games, including an eight-pass game where the team was up 14-0 at halftime and won 17-7, and the 38-pass game where they lost 28-20 while playing catchup. Is there --- and should there be --- some sort of adjustment for the score? Suppose Baltimore falls behind 27-0 in the second quarter. Can Baltimore throw more then?

(You may have said earlier that you use their maximums per game per play rather than their average per game per play. I don't recall now. Pardon me if I've overlooked that.)

(Using the maximum per play per game may take care of the fall behind problem, but unfortunately it still allows for statistical distortion through overuse of a play --- less overuse than with no quota, but overuse nonetheless. But then again, a certain degree of overuse may be unpreventable.)

--- In Paydirt@yahoogroups.com, "Ron Pisarz, Jr." <RPisarzjr@...> wrote:
>
> Unless you like playing Rock, Paper, Scissors by using the generic defenses (Wild Card, R/P, Nickel, etc.) here is the perfect example demonstrating why the game needs play call quotas:
>
> BALTIMORE RAVENS PASSING STATS
> play comp attempts comppct
> 5 22 32 68.8%
> 6 131 171 76.6%
> 7 28 44 63.6%
> 8 25 76 32.9%
> 9 32 73 43.8%
> 238 396 60.1%
>
>
> Joe Flacco has the worst passing accuracy for pass plays 11+ yards downfield (this stat being published by the NFL on ESPN this morning), ~40%. I decided to look at the Ravens passing stats in my play by play database that has the pass plays categorized. Looking at 7, 8 and 9 we see completion rates of 63.6%, 32.9% and 43.8% respectively. Wait a second, 63.6% on the medium? The overall completion rate 11+ yards downfield (which includes ALL medium passes) is only 40%, how is this possible? Itâs possible because the medium pass accounts for only 44 of 396 attempts ~10%, on average 4 passes per game. Both the Long and Sideline (some sideline passes are < 11 yards â" I could eliminate those from the calculation but with a 43.8% rate we can see its quite close to the overall 40% @ 11+ yds so it is safe to assume those sideline passes 11+ yds downfield are those he is less accurate) account for more than double the medium passes (149 of 396) and the combine completion rate is well below the 40% rate.
>
> Without quotas why would a human player ever call the sideline when they have much greater success calling the medium â" even if the wild card is allowed. Allowing the defense to use the wild card I know the opponent has a 1 in 9 chance of guessing correctly and if he demonstrates overuse of the wild card in trying to stop medium I can go short or screen... suddenly the game is rock, paper, scissors (although that is one of the gameâs core mechanics). It becomes can guess correctly or not. With quotas in place (which so far for BAL the medium pass quota is 9, more than double the average giving plenty of flexibility to the player) I know as the defender I am not only trying to stop the medium but the other plays as well. I know he has limited use of the medium and because he has limited use he must use the other pass plays. So now I am concerned with finding the formations that fit the situations that I believe will make stop across all plays knowing that every formation has a weakness thus Iâm conceding against certain plays while trying to stop others, hence far more strategy involved. And, on offense it is far more challenging as well. I canât just call Baltimoreâs best play, the Medium, as often as I like. I have to be more judicious. This adds strategy and also emulates the NFL. Even though NFL teams try to exploit they know balance has to be in place for long-term success. To justify that claim no team that throws the ball more than 66.67% of the time, and they are DET, NO, ARZ, TEN, OAK, DAL has a winning record. ATL is closest ~66% pass.
>
> If you want to enhance the game and add strategy try using play call quotas and see how the game play changes.
>
• The quotas are all higher than that because I use maximums, but in concept you are correct. And, yes statistical distortion can occur, but within reason that
Message 3 of 6 , Dec 2, 2012
The quotas are all higher than that because I use maximums, but in concept
you are correct. And, yes statistical distortion can occur, but within
reason that is the intent of the game. What can the team have done
differently to improve their record? That is the subtlety in the game.

The way to prevent overuse is look at your defense find the best formation
and call it.

-----Original Message-----
From: John Reeder
Sent: Sunday, December 02, 2012 1:40 PM
To: Paydirt@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [Paydirt] Re: Quotas Example

Does this mean, with quotas, that Baltimore can throw 2 screen passes, 11
short passes, 3 medium passes, 5 long passes, and 5 sideline passes (26
total) per game?

I take it that the 26 passes per game encompasses all games, including an
eight-pass game where the team was up 14-0 at halftime and won 17-7, and the
38-pass game where they lost 28-20 while playing catchup. Is there --- and
should there be --- some sort of adjustment for the score? Suppose
Baltimore falls behind 27-0 in the second quarter. Can Baltimore throw more
then?

(You may have said earlier that you use their maximums per game per play
rather than their average per game per play. I don't recall now. Pardon me
if I've overlooked that.)

(Using the maximum per play per game may take care of the fall behind
problem, but unfortunately it still allows for statistical distortion
through overuse of a play --- less overuse than with no quota, but overuse
nonetheless. But then again, a certain degree of overuse may be
unpreventable.)

--- In Paydirt@yahoogroups.com, "Ron Pisarz, Jr." <RPisarzjr@...> wrote:
>
> Unless you like playing Rock, Paper, Scissors by using the generic
> defenses (Wild Card, R/P, Nickel, etc.) here is the perfect example
> demonstrating why the game needs play call quotas:
>
> BALTIMORE RAVENS PASSING STATS
> play comp attempts comppct
> 5 22 32 68.8%
> 6 131 171 76.6%
> 7 28 44 63.6%
> 8 25 76 32.9%
> 9 32 73 43.8%
> 238 396 60.1%
>
>
> Joe Flacco has the worst passing accuracy for pass plays 11+ yards
> downfield (this stat being published by the NFL on ESPN this morning),
> ~40%. I decided to look at the Ravens passing stats in my play by play
> database that has the pass plays categorized. Looking at 7, 8 and 9 we see
> completion rates of 63.6%, 32.9% and 43.8% respectively. Wait a second,
> 63.6% on the medium? The overall completion rate 11+ yards downfield
> (which includes ALL medium passes) is only 40%, how is this possible?
> Itâ€™s possible because the medium pass accounts for only 44 of 396
> attempts ~10%, on average 4 passes per game. Both the Long and Sideline
> (some sideline passes are < 11 yards â€" I could eliminate those from the
> calculation but with a 43.8% rate we can see its quite close to the
> overall 40% @ 11+ yds so it is safe to assume those sideline passes 11+
> yds downfield are those he is less accurate) account for more than double
> the medium passes (149 of 396) and the combine completion rate is well
> below the 40% rate.
>
> Without quotas why would a human player ever call the sideline when they
> have much greater success calling the medium â€" even if the wild card is
> allowed. Allowing the defense to use the wild card I know the opponent has
> a 1 in 9 chance of guessing correctly and if he demonstrates overuse of
> the wild card in trying to stop medium I can go short or screen...
> suddenly the game is rock, paper, scissors (although that is one of the
> gameâ€™s core mechanics). It becomes can guess correctly or not. With
> quotas in place (which so far for BAL the medium pass quota is 9, more
> than double the average giving plenty of flexibility to the player) I know
> as the defender I am not only trying to stop the medium but the other
> plays as well. I know he has limited use of the medium and because he has
> limited use he must use the other pass plays. So now I am concerned with
> finding the formations that fit the situations that I believe will make
> stop across all plays knowing that every formation has a weakness thus
> Iâ€™m conceding against certain plays while trying to stop others, hence
> far more strategy involved. And, on offense it is far more challenging as
> well. I canâ€™t just call Baltimoreâ€™s best play, the Medium, as often as
> I like. I have to be more judicious. This adds strategy and also emulates
> the NFL. Even though NFL teams try to exploit they know balance has to be
> in place for long-term success. To justify that claim no team that throws
> the ball more than 66.67% of the time, and they are DET, NO, ARZ, TEN,
> OAK, DAL has a winning record. ATL is closest ~66% pass.
>
> If you want to enhance the game and add strategy try using play call
> quotas and see how the game play changes.
>

------------------------------------

• Excellent point Ron! The math works out right and you explained perfectly the whys and hows....I LOVE LOVE LOVE your play quota/limitations! I remember playing
Message 4 of 6 , Dec 4, 2012
Excellent point Ron! The math works out right and you explained perfectly the whys and hows....I LOVE LOVE LOVE your play quota/limitations! I remember playing and beating you in a game, last year I think?, when I had the rams and I kept hammering away with play 5 against the niners....you could not stop it and it was one of the very few good plays they have.....so, your new game addition makes that more challenging to take advantage of! As always, you keep making something that cannot really be improved and find ways to make it even better! Looking forward to your next set! BTW...I still cannot play on THIS computer.....but, its ok.....we can try to get that fixed sometime when you have some free time.

-----Original Message-----
From: Ron Pisarz, Jr. <RPisarzjr@...>
To: Paydirt <Paydirt@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sun, Dec 2, 2012 12:31 pm
Subject: [Paydirt] Quotas Example

Unless you like playing Rock, Paper, Scissors by using the generic defenses (Wild Card, R/P, Nickel, etc.) here is the perfect example demonstrating why the game needs play call quotas:
BALTIMORE RAVENS PASSING STATS
play comp   attempts    comppct
5    22            32             68.8%
6    131         171           76.6%
7    28            44             63.6%
8    25            76             32.9%
9    32            73              43.8%
238          396             60.1%

Joe Flacco has the worst passing accuracy for pass plays 11+ yards downfield (this stat being published by the NFL on ESPN this morning), ~40%.  I decided to look at the Ravens passing stats in my play by play database that has the pass plays categorized. Looking at 7, 8 and 9 we see completion rates of 63.6%, 32.9% and 43.8% respectively. Wait a second, 63.6% on the medium? The overall completion rate 11+ yards downfield (which includes ALL medium passes) is only 40%, how is this possible? It’s possible because the medium pass accounts for only 44 of 396 attempts ~10%, on average 4 passes per game. Both the Long and Sideline (some sideline passes are < 11 yards – I could eliminate those from the calculation but with a 43.8% rate we can see its quite close to the overall 40% @ 11+ yds so it is safe to assume those sideline passes 11+ yds downfield are those he is less accurate) account for more than double the medium passes (149 of 396) and the combine completion rate is well below the 40% rate.

Without quotas why would a human player ever call the sideline when they have much greater success calling the medium – even if the wild card is allowed. Allowing the defense to use the wild card I know the opponent has a 1 in 9 chance of guessing correctly and if he demonstrates overuse of the wild card in trying to stop medium I can go short or screen... suddenly the game is rock, paper, scissors (although that is one of the game’s core mechanics). It becomes can guess correctly or not. With quotas in place (which so far for BAL the medium pass quota is 9, more than double the average giving plenty of flexibility to the player) I know as the defender I am  not only trying to stop the medium but the other plays as well. I know he has limited use of the medium and because he has limited use he must use the other pass plays. So now I am concerned with finding the formations that fit the situations that I believe will make stop across all plays knowing that every formation has a weakness thus I’m conceding against certain plays while trying to stop others, hence far more strategy involved. And, on offense it is far more challenging as well. I can’t just call Baltimore’s best play, the Medium, as often as I like. I have to be more judicious. This adds strategy and also emulates the NFL. Even though NFL teams try to exploit they know balance has to be in place for long-term success. To justify that claim no team that throws the ball more than 66.67% of the time, and they are DET, NO, ARZ, TEN, OAK, DAL has a winning record. ATL is closest ~66% pass.

If you want to enhance the game and add strategy try using play call quotas and see how the game play changes.
• I agree -- mostly .... The thing is, it all depends on what you want to achieve. If you re looking to replay a season with only subtle, small changes, then,
Message 5 of 6 , Dec 5, 2012
I agree -- mostly ....

The thing is, it all depends on what you want to achieve.

If you're looking to replay a season with only subtle, small changes, then, yes, quotas are essential.

If, however, you're looking to change things dramatically; then I wouldn't use quotas at all.

Take something like Strat-O-Matic (with individual cards). By the end of this year, CJ Spiller may have, around 180 carries. Conversely, Adrian Peterson should have around 310, and Arian Foster may have around 370.

So, let's say I wanted to coach Buffalo, and I wanted to see how much better they would've done if they had made CJ Spiller the every-down back (and, in fact, I packaged Fred Jackson and another player for an upgrade somewhere else on the team). Now, I have a VERY different agenda than someone doing a pure replay; and therefore, I wouldn't want to use quotas (limiting Spiller to *about* 12 carries a game).

Same with baseball, when I used to trade righty batters for lefty batters, to see the impact in a new park.

I don't mind if a game builds in something to *punish* the overuse (so, for example, baseball creates an "inning-of-weakness" so when the pitcher reaches that inning they're more susceptible to giving up hits). Maybe football could have a (+20) factor -- when the RB exceeds 20 attempts, they see a second column (lower) of results -- but that's still arbitrary.

It all just depends on what the goal of the project is. Sometimes we think we know better than the coaches (and, sometimes, we're right!)

Chris

--- In Paydirt@yahoogroups.com, "Ron Pisarz, Jr." <RPisarzjr@...> wrote:
>
> Unless you like playing Rock, Paper, Scissors by using the generic defenses (Wild Card, R/P, Nickel, etc.) here is the perfect example demonstrating why the game needs play call quotas:
>
> BALTIMORE RAVENS PASSING STATS
> play comp attempts comppct
> 5 22 32 68.8%
> 6 131 171 76.6%
> 7 28 44 63.6%
> 8 25 76 32.9%
> 9 32 73 43.8%
> 238 396 60.1%
>
>
> Joe Flacco has the worst passing accuracy for pass plays 11+ yards downfield (this stat being published by the NFL on ESPN this morning), ~40%. I decided to look at the Ravens passing stats in my play by play database that has the pass plays categorized. Looking at 7, 8 and 9 we see completion rates of 63.6%, 32.9% and 43.8% respectively. Wait a second, 63.6% on the medium? The overall completion rate 11+ yards downfield (which includes ALL medium passes) is only 40%, how is this possible? Itâs possible because the medium pass accounts for only 44 of 396 attempts ~10%, on average 4 passes per game. Both the Long and Sideline (some sideline passes are < 11 yards â" I could eliminate those from the calculation but with a 43.8% rate we can see its quite close to the overall 40% @ 11+ yds so it is safe to assume those sideline passes 11+ yds downfield are those he is less accurate) account for more than double the medium passes (149 of 396) and the combine completion rate is well below the 40% rate.
>
> Without quotas why would a human player ever call the sideline when they have much greater success calling the medium â" even if the wild card is allowed. Allowing the defense to use the wild card I know the opponent has a 1 in 9 chance of guessing correctly and if he demonstrates overuse of the wild card in trying to stop medium I can go short or screen... suddenly the game is rock, paper, scissors (although that is one of the gameâs core mechanics). It becomes can guess correctly or not. With quotas in place (which so far for BAL the medium pass quota is 9, more than double the average giving plenty of flexibility to the player) I know as the defender I am not only trying to stop the medium but the other plays as well. I know he has limited use of the medium and because he has limited use he must use the other pass plays. So now I am concerned with finding the formations that fit the situations that I believe will make stop across all plays knowing that every formation has a weakness thus Iâm conceding against certain plays while trying to stop others, hence far more strategy involved. And, on offense it is far more challenging as well. I canât just call Baltimoreâs best play, the Medium, as often as I like. I have to be more judicious. This adds strategy and also emulates the NFL. Even though NFL teams try to exploit they know balance has to be in place for long-term success. To justify that claim no team that throws the ball more than 66.67% of the time, and they are DET, NO, ARZ, TEN, OAK, DAL has a winning record. ATL is closest ~66% pass.
>
> If you want to enhance the game and add strategy try using play call quotas and see how the game play changes.
>
• Excellent points Chris and I do agree. Based on results of using maximums it is entirely possible to introduce a significant deviation from a team s actual
Message 6 of 6 , Dec 5, 2012
Excellent points Chris and I do agree.

Based on results of using maximums it is entirely possible to introduce a
significant deviation from a team's actual game plan (say DET who throws 67%
and runs 33%, and make them more balanced 55/45 for example) such that you
can play what-if and see the difference.

Quotas do not force a replay with only subtle and small changes -- at least
that has been the experience thus far.

I do agree 100% in concept with what you are saying. Somehow, and it is an
arbitrary determination, you have to constrain the resources to keep results
in the realm of plausible. For Paydirt, I think quotas offer enough
flexibility so you can play what-if and yet keep the game realistic.

-----Original Message-----
From: Lemurrush .
Sent: Wednesday, December 05, 2012 12:04 PM
To: Paydirt@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [Paydirt] Re: Quotas Example

I agree -- mostly ....

The thing is, it all depends on what you want to achieve.

If you're looking to replay a season with only subtle, small changes, then,
yes, quotas are essential.

If, however, you're looking to change things dramatically; then I wouldn't
use quotas at all.

Take something like Strat-O-Matic (with individual cards). By the end of
this year, CJ Spiller may have, around 180 carries. Conversely, Adrian
Peterson should have around 310, and Arian Foster may have around 370.

So, let's say I wanted to coach Buffalo, and I wanted to see how much better
they would've done if they had made CJ Spiller the every-down back (and, in
fact, I packaged Fred Jackson and another player for an upgrade somewhere
else on the team). Now, I have a VERY different agenda than someone doing a
pure replay; and therefore, I wouldn't want to use quotas (limiting Spiller
to *about* 12 carries a game).

Same with baseball, when I used to trade righty batters for lefty batters,
to see the impact in a new park.

I don't mind if a game builds in something to *punish* the overuse (so, for
example, baseball creates an "inning-of-weakness" so when the pitcher
reaches that inning they're more susceptible to giving up hits). Maybe
football could have a (+20) factor -- when the RB exceeds 20 attempts, they
see a second column (lower) of results -- but that's still arbitrary.

It all just depends on what the goal of the project is. Sometimes we think
we know better than the coaches (and, sometimes, we're right!)

Chris

--- In Paydirt@yahoogroups.com, "Ron Pisarz, Jr." <RPisarzjr@...> wrote:
>
> Unless you like playing Rock, Paper, Scissors by using the generic
> defenses (Wild Card, R/P, Nickel, etc.) here is the perfect example
> demonstrating why the game needs play call quotas:
>
> BALTIMORE RAVENS PASSING STATS
> play comp attempts comppct
> 5 22 32 68.8%
> 6 131 171 76.6%
> 7 28 44 63.6%
> 8 25 76 32.9%
> 9 32 73 43.8%
> 238 396 60.1%
>
>
> Joe Flacco has the worst passing accuracy for pass plays 11+ yards
> downfield (this stat being published by the NFL on ESPN this morning),
> ~40%. I decided to look at the Ravens passing stats in my play by play
> database that has the pass plays categorized. Looking at 7, 8 and 9 we see
> completion rates of 63.6%, 32.9% and 43.8% respectively. Wait a second,
> 63.6% on the medium? The overall completion rate 11+ yards downfield
> (which includes ALL medium passes) is only 40%, how is this possible?
> Itâ€™s possible because the medium pass accounts for only 44 of 396
> attempts ~10%, on average 4 passes per game. Both the Long and Sideline
> (some sideline passes are < 11 yards â€" I could eliminate those from the
> calculation but with a 43.8% rate we can see its quite close to the
> overall 40% @ 11+ yds so it is safe to assume those sideline passes 11+
> yds downfield are those he is less accurate) account for more than double
> the medium passes (149 of 396) and the combine completion rate is well
> below the 40% rate.
>
> Without quotas why would a human player ever call the sideline when they
> have much greater success calling the medium â€" even if the wild card is
> allowed. Allowing the defense to use the wild card I know the opponent has
> a 1 in 9 chance of guessing correctly and if he demonstrates overuse of
> the wild card in trying to stop medium I can go short or screen...
> suddenly the game is rock, paper, scissors (although that is one of the
> gameâ€™s core mechanics). It becomes can guess correctly or not. With
> quotas in place (which so far for BAL the medium pass quota is 9, more
> than double the average giving plenty of flexibility to the player) I know
> as the defender I am not only trying to stop the medium but the other
> plays as well. I know he has limited use of the medium and because he has
> limited use he must use the other pass plays. So now I am concerned with
> finding the formations that fit the situations that I believe will make
> stop across all plays knowing that every formation has a weakness thus
> Iâ€™m conceding against certain plays while trying to stop others, hence
> far more strategy involved. And, on offense it is far more challenging as
> well. I canâ€™t just call Baltimoreâ€™s best play, the Medium, as often as
> I like. I have to be more judicious. This adds strategy and also emulates
> the NFL. Even though NFL teams try to exploit they know balance has to be
> in place for long-term success. To justify that claim no team that throws
> the ball more than 66.67% of the time, and they are DET, NO, ARZ, TEN,
> OAK, DAL has a winning record. ATL is closest ~66% pass.
>
> If you want to enhance the game and add strategy try using play call
> quotas and see how the game play changes.
>

------------------------------------