Mount Rainier More Unstable Than Previously Thought...08/12/03
by Mitch Battros (ECTV)
No, this is not sensationalism. And no, it is not a time to panic. As I have
stated at the first of this month, we would in fact be receiving what might
appear as startling. It is important for us to remember we are simply
witness to a very natural cycle. Yes, there will be extraordinary events
unfolding. And yes, some may be prone to "over-react". And yes, this would
be a good time to practice the many disciplines which keep us grounded and
focused. And perhaps most importantly, remember you are not alone. In
contrast to the eighty's, there are thousands of us, if not millions, who
have woken up from a slumber sleep. Together, we can indeed move mountains.
This Just In! Mount Rainier is determined to be more unstable than
previously thought. William E. Scott is the scientist in charge of the
Cascades Volcano Observatory, a USGS center that monitors volcanoes from
California to Alaska. Dr. William Scott just yesterday made this profound
statement. Mt. Rainier is ?A monumental threat?.
Volcanologists determined in the late 1990s that the mountain is far more
unstable than previously thought, and they have since persuaded local
emergency management officials to launch an early-warning system and a major
public-awareness campaign. Tens of thousands of people are being told to
?enjoy the volcano in your back yard? but to be prepared to run away from it
? fast. The town nearest Rainier has about 40 minutes to flee. Inside the
national park that encircles the mountain, scientists in recent months have
shortened the run-for-it survival time to five minutes.
During this 'freakishly' warm, dry and cloudless summer in the Pacific
Northwest, astonishing views of Mount Rainier have been uncommonly common.
Clear sight lines have made it possible to gaze at Rainier and appreciate it
less as an intermittent aesthetic pleasure and more for what the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS) warns that it really is.
It is my contingency the "freakish" warm weather is due to the Sun. In just
the last two days, we have seen solar winds in the high range, producing
geomagnetic storms. It is also my presumption, that CME's have been
erupting, and even possible M-Class flares even though the more popular
space weather monitors have not flashed the "M-Class or X-Class" flare
emblem. I make this determination by working backwards. (see equation) The
solar wind charts along with the Kp index scale indicates high solar
activity. Just because some popular private website, namely "maj.com", is
not flashing the M-Class flare insignia, does not mean it has not occurred.
I am going on record to challenge current monitor websites as to the
accuracy of their display. I am calling on all amateur space weather
monitors to send in your independent reports. Something just doesn't smell
Sunspots => Solar Flares => Magnetic Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream
Currents => Extreme Weather
and Human Disruption (mitch battros)
Beware of "Lahars":
Lahar is an Indonesian term that describes a hot or cold mixture of water
and rock fragments flowing down the slopes of a
volcano and (or) river valleys. When moving, a lahar looks like a mass of
wet concrete that carries rock debris ranging in size
from clay to boulders more than 10 m in diameter. Lahars vary in size and
speed. Small lahars less than a few meters wide and
several centimeters deep may flow a few meters per second. Large lahars
hundreds of meters wide and tens of meters deep
can flow several tens of meters per second--much too fast for people to
As a lahar rushes downstream from a volcano, its size, speed, and the amount
of water and rock debris it carries constantly
change. The beginning surge of water and rock debris often erodes rocks and
vegetation from the side of a volcano and along
the river valley it enters. This initial flow can also incorporate water
from melting snow and ice (if present) and the river it
overruns. By eroding rock debris and incorporating additional water, lahars
can easily grow to more than 10 times their initial
size. But as a lahar moves farther away from a volcano, it will eventually
begin to lose its heavy load of sediment and decrease
Jill Hawk, chief ranger at the (mount rainier) park made the high risk of
danger very clear when she made this startling statement. ?I don?t have time
to evacuate people,? she said. ?I have time to run.?
A new risk assessment by the USGS has drastically narrowed the survival
window in the case of a lahar. It shriveled from a maximum of 23 minutes to
five minutes. That applies to people working in National Park Service
buildings and staying in a large guest lodge in a valley on the much-visited
southwest corner of the park.
Tonight on Earth Changes TV "Radio Hour"!
Tuesday August 12th - Dr. Bruce Cornet---Geologist, Paleobotanist,
Palynologist, and Oil Explorer. Post-doctorate
research in geology and paleobotany at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory,
Columbia University (1989-1990). Author
and coauthor of 21 refereed scientific papers and two books, all on
paleontological and/or geological subjects. 14 years
experience in the oil industry, and President of Geminoil, Inc., which
successfully explored for and found oil on the East
Coast in Triassic age rocks thought to be barren of hydrocarbons (just
before the collapse of the oil industry in the early
1980's). Website: http://www.monmouth.com/%7Ebcornet/index.htm#Paleontology
Thursday August 14th - Jim Berkland---USGS Geologist (retired) Jim has
published more than 50 scientific papers related
to geology and seismology. Jim Berkland is best known for his accuracy rate
in predicting earthquakes.
Tuesday August 19th - Ian Lungold---Ian has spent many years studying the
Maya culture, and is one of the few who can
truly read and assess the Mayan Calendar. Website:
Subscribe To ECTV For Full Access:
Receive Your "Free" ECTV Newsletter:
About Mitch: http://www.earthchangestv.com/mitch/index.htm
Sherry's Corner: http://www.earthchangestv.com/Sherry/index.htm
Survival Tips: http://www.earthchangestv.com/survival/index.htm
Producer - Earth Changes TV
Add photos to your e-mail with MSN 8. Get 2 months FREE*.