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Mount Rainier More Unstable Than Previously Thought

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  • Samantha Synder
    Mount Rainier More Unstable Than Previously Thought...08/12/03 by Mitch Battros (ECTV) No, this is not sensationalism. And no, it is not a time to panic. As I
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 12, 2003
      Mount Rainier More Unstable Than Previously Thought...08/12/03
      by Mitch Battros (ECTV)

      No, this is not sensationalism. And no, it is not a time to panic. As I have
      stated at the first of this month, we would in fact be receiving what might
      appear as startling. It is important for us to remember we are simply
      witness to a very natural cycle. Yes, there will be extraordinary events
      unfolding. And yes, some may be prone to "over-react". And yes, this would
      be a good time to practice the many disciplines which keep us grounded and
      focused. And perhaps most importantly, remember you are not alone. In
      contrast to the eighty's, there are thousands of us, if not millions, who
      have woken up from a slumber sleep. Together, we can indeed move mountains.

      This Just In! Mount Rainier is determined to be more unstable than
      previously thought. William E. Scott is the scientist in charge of the
      Cascades Volcano Observatory, a USGS center that monitors volcanoes from
      California to Alaska. Dr. William Scott just yesterday made this profound
      statement. Mt. Rainier is ?A monumental threat?.

      Volcanologists determined in the late 1990s that the mountain is far more
      unstable than previously thought, and they have since persuaded local
      emergency management officials to launch an early-warning system and a major
      public-awareness campaign. Tens of thousands of people are being told to
      ?enjoy the volcano in your back yard? but to be prepared to run away from it
      ? fast. The town nearest Rainier has about 40 minutes to flee. Inside the
      national park that encircles the mountain, scientists in recent months have
      shortened the run-for-it survival time to five minutes.

      During this 'freakishly' warm, dry and cloudless summer in the Pacific
      Northwest, astonishing views of Mount Rainier have been uncommonly common.
      Clear sight lines have made it possible to gaze at Rainier and appreciate it
      less as an intermittent aesthetic pleasure and more for what the U.S.
      Geological Survey (USGS) warns that it really is.

      It is my contingency the "freakish" warm weather is due to the Sun. In just
      the last two days, we have seen solar winds in the high range, producing
      geomagnetic storms. It is also my presumption, that CME's have been
      erupting, and even possible M-Class flares even though the more popular
      space weather monitors have not flashed the "M-Class or X-Class" flare
      emblem. I make this determination by working backwards. (see equation) The
      solar wind charts along with the Kp index scale indicates high solar
      activity. Just because some popular private website, namely "maj.com", is
      not flashing the M-Class flare insignia, does not mean it has not occurred.
      I am going on record to challenge current monitor websites as to the
      accuracy of their display. I am calling on all amateur space weather
      monitors to send in your independent reports. Something just doesn't smell
      right.

      Equation:
      Sunspots => Solar Flares => Magnetic Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream
      Currents => Extreme Weather
      and Human Disruption (mitch battros)


      Beware of "Lahars":

      Lahar is an Indonesian term that describes a hot or cold mixture of water
      and rock fragments flowing down the slopes of a
      volcano and (or) river valleys. When moving, a lahar looks like a mass of
      wet concrete that carries rock debris ranging in size
      from clay to boulders more than 10 m in diameter. Lahars vary in size and
      speed. Small lahars less than a few meters wide and
      several centimeters deep may flow a few meters per second. Large lahars
      hundreds of meters wide and tens of meters deep
      can flow several tens of meters per second--much too fast for people to
      outrun.

      As a lahar rushes downstream from a volcano, its size, speed, and the amount
      of water and rock debris it carries constantly
      change. The beginning surge of water and rock debris often erodes rocks and
      vegetation from the side of a volcano and along
      the river valley it enters. This initial flow can also incorporate water
      from melting snow and ice (if present) and the river it
      overruns. By eroding rock debris and incorporating additional water, lahars
      can easily grow to more than 10 times their initial
      size. But as a lahar moves farther away from a volcano, it will eventually
      begin to lose its heavy load of sediment and decrease
      in size.

      Jill Hawk, chief ranger at the (mount rainier) park made the high risk of
      danger very clear when she made this startling statement. ?I don?t have time
      to evacuate people,? she said. ?I have time to run.?

      A new risk assessment by the USGS has drastically narrowed the survival
      window in the case of a lahar. It shriveled from a maximum of 23 minutes to
      five minutes. That applies to people working in National Park Service
      buildings and staying in a large guest lodge in a valley on the much-visited
      southwest corner of the park.


      Tonight on Earth Changes TV "Radio Hour"!

      Tuesday August 12th - Dr. Bruce Cornet---Geologist, Paleobotanist,
      Palynologist, and Oil Explorer. Post-doctorate
      research in geology and paleobotany at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory,
      Columbia University (1989-1990). Author
      and coauthor of 21 refereed scientific papers and two books, all on
      paleontological and/or geological subjects. 14 years
      experience in the oil industry, and President of Geminoil, Inc., which
      successfully explored for and found oil on the East
      Coast in Triassic age rocks thought to be barren of hydrocarbons (just
      before the collapse of the oil industry in the early
      1980's). Website: http://www.monmouth.com/%7Ebcornet/index.htm#Paleontology

      Thursday August 14th - Jim Berkland---USGS Geologist (retired) Jim has
      published more than 50 scientific papers related
      to geology and seismology. Jim Berkland is best known for his accuracy rate
      in predicting earthquakes.
      Website: http://www.syzygyjob.org/

      Tuesday August 19th - Ian Lungold---Ian has spent many years studying the
      Maya culture, and is one of the few who can
      truly read and assess the Mayan Calendar. Website:
      http://www.mayanmajix.com/


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      About Mitch: http://www.earthchangestv.com/mitch/index.htm

      Sherry's Corner: http://www.earthchangestv.com/Sherry/index.htm

      Survival Tips: http://www.earthchangestv.com/survival/index.htm


      Mitch Battros
      Producer - Earth Changes TV
      http://www.earthchangestv.com

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