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Comparing current html5 vs current Flash

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  • Bjørn K Nilssen
    Here s a link to an interesting comparison between the current state of html5 vs Flash. http://bit.ly/agrIBk Looks like it was a bit too early for Jobs to try
    Message 1 of 23 , Jun 12, 2010
      Here's a link to an interesting comparison between the current state of html5 vs Flash.
      http://bit.ly/agrIBk
      Looks like it was a bit too early for Jobs to try to bury Flash?

      --
      Bjørn K Nilssen - http://bknilssen.no - panoramas and 3D
    • Trausti Hraunfjord
      Now Björn... don t let reality get in the way! Less is better. ... for some. 2010/6/12 Bjørn K Nilssen ... [Non-text portions of this
      Message 2 of 23 , Jun 12, 2010
        Now Bj�rn... don't let reality get in the way!

        Less is better.

        ... for some.


        2010/6/12 Bj�rn K Nilssen <bk@...>

        >
        >
        > Here's a link to an interesting comparison between the current state of
        > html5 vs Flash.
        > http://bit.ly/agrIBk
        > Looks like it was a bit too early for Jobs to try to bury Flash?
        >
        > --
        > Bj�rn K Nilssen - http://bknilssen.no - panoramas and 3D
        >
        >
        >


        [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
      • Keith Martin
        ... Interesting. Slanted, clearly, but some good points are made. I particularly like that it has been given an Apple-esque look. :-) ... In some ways, yes.
        Message 3 of 23 , Jun 12, 2010
          Sometime around 12/6/10 (at 13:56 +0200) Bjørn K Nilssen said:

          >Here's a link to an interesting comparison
          >between the current state of html5 vs Flash.
          >http://bit.ly/agrIBk

          Interesting. Slanted, clearly, but some good
          points are made. I particularly like that it has
          been given an Apple-esque look. :-)

          >Looks like it was a bit too early for Jobs to try to bury Flash?

          In some ways, yes. But it is important to see
          things from multiple viewpoints. For example,
          from that site:
          - In may 2010, 0,86% of all online users use an iPhone or iPad (=iOS).
          - In may 2010, 97,00% of all online users have the Flash Player 10 installed.
          - In may 2010, 87,00% of all online users CAN'T see HTML5 video h.264.

          However, from an iPhone user's perspective:
          - In may 2010, 100% of all iPhone/iPad users, er, use an iPhone or iPad (=iOS).
          - In may 2010, 0% of all these users have the Flash Player 10 installed.
          - In may 2010, 0% of all these users CAN'T see HTML5 video h.264.

          Statistics, eh? You know the 'lies, damn lies' saying, right? :-)

          More seriously, when Apple dropped the floppy
          drive it caused a big stink everywhere. But it
          wasn't all that long before the rest of the
          computing world followed suit. I'm not claiming
          this will happen with Flash, but it is worth
          noting that in passing.

          Finally, anything like this that claims HTML5 is
          'jumping back in time' is slanting things just a
          bit too much for my liking. And yes, it *is* a
          standard, just not one that's been adopted by
          many browsers yet. When IE6 was king of the
          browser stats, did that make the W3C's efforts
          not standards?

          The real point that's made here (behind the
          hyperbole) is that HTML5 and Flash are
          *different*. Whether Flash will fade away
          elsewhere, become one of a variety of general
          technologies or make a world-conquering comeback
          is something we'll have to wait to see.

          In the meantime I'll keep trying out new ways of
          presenting pano content, both Flash-based and
          otherwise.

          k
        • Trausti Hraunfjord
          No matter what our personal opinions are, the important part of the message remains very true: *Apple loves to repeat history and made some supercool amazing
          Message 4 of 23 , Jun 12, 2010
            No matter what our personal opinions are, the important part of the message
            remains very true:

            *Apple loves to repeat history and made some supercool amazing examples that
            show you how the web was like 8 years ago with any browser equipped with
            Macromedia Flash 6. To recreate the full retro experience, Apple also
            developed the iPad, a tablet-device with a processor that could have blown
            your socks off 12 years ago. *

            But of course, those who have bought into the Apple products, need their
            devices to work. Be that with technology that is a decade behind what the
            rest of internet users have. For them, it is important that things work
            optimally. Even if "optimal", when used on their iDevices, things will look
            and feels as something from several years ago on non-mobile devices.

            That's good and fine... for them.

            But these people's needs, should not become the de-facto standard for
            everyone else, on every other platform.

            Trausti

            On Sat, Jun 12, 2010 at 9:53 AM, Keith Martin <keith@...> wrote:

            >
            >
            > Sometime around 12/6/10 (at 13:56 +0200) Bjørn K Nilssen said:
            >
            >


            [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
          • Keith Martin
            ... Trausti, that is editorial opinion, and hence personal opinion. What IS true is that we cannot and will not ever change each others minds by emailing
            Message 5 of 23 , Jun 12, 2010
              Sometime around 12/6/10 (at 10:42 -0500) Trausti Hraunfjord said:

              > *Apple loves to repeat history [etc.]

              Trausti, that is editorial opinion, and hence personal opinion. What
              IS true is that we cannot and will not ever change each others' minds
              by emailing polarised comments on this and other similar topics.

              I know you hold certain opinions, you know I hold some too. Others
              here hold opinions as well. Many of these overlap, many don't. Let's
              not beat this particular bishop too long, eh? ;-)

              (No personal dig meant BTW, just a wry reaction to all our various
              reactionary postings over the last weeks, months, years...)

              Me, I'm much more interested in hearing about your planned iPad
              purchase - that bombshell you dropped here on May 25th. Any news?

              k
            • Trausti Hraunfjord
              In this case I am only trying to stretch the NG (no-go) list rule of not counting on humouristic sense being global :) Of course the opinion of the editorial
              Message 6 of 23 , Jun 12, 2010
                In this case I am only trying to stretch the NG (no-go) list rule of not
                counting on humouristic sense being global :)

                Of course the opinion of the editorial piece is opinion, just like Job's
                opinion is .... dictatorship ... since he makes it into "law".

                But the piece on the page is very accurate historically, and only shows how
                everyone is supposed to take a great leap ... backwards.

                I will move forward though... and away from the subject, since for some
                reason some people might take this all to seriously.

                The iPad purchase went sour. The person who was to buy one for me in the
                US, was on a business trip, and didn't get the time to pick one up. Not
                that bad a thing, since it presumably can't display Flash for me :)
                (couldn´t resist it :) )
                Nah... there is... or rather; will be... news on the iPad / iPhone support
                for FPP and Android and other mobile devices when the time is right.
                With 0.86% of internet users having one or more of those iDevices, I will
                assign equal amount of programming time to those... :Þ
                Bringing FPP up to date is of course more important, so that is where the
                focus will be, and FFC also needs some serious overhauling.... so products
                that are in the sub zero percentage of marketshare, will simply have to
                wait.

                All written in good spirit and with Icelandic brutal sense of rotten humour.

                Trausti


                On Sat, Jun 12, 2010 at 12:31 PM, Keith Martin <keith@...> wrote:

                >
                >
                > Sometime around 12/6/10 (at 10:42 -0500) Trausti Hraunfjord said:
                >
                > > *Apple loves to repeat history [etc.]
                >
                > Trausti, that is editorial opinion, and hence personal opinion. What
                > IS true is that we cannot and will not ever change each others' minds
                > by emailing polarised comments on this and other similar topics.
                >
                > I know you hold certain opinions, you know I hold some too. Others
                > here hold opinions as well. Many of these overlap, many don't. Let's
                > not beat this particular bishop too long, eh? ;-)
                >
                > (No personal dig meant BTW, just a wry reaction to all our various
                > reactionary postings over the last weeks, months, years...)
                >
                > Me, I'm much more interested in hearing about your planned iPad
                > purchase - that bombshell you dropped here on May 25th. Any news?
                >


                [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
              • Keith Martin
                ... Interface...? Please...? k
                Message 7 of 23 , Jun 12, 2010
                  >FFC also needs some serious overhauling

                  Interface...? Please...?

                  k
                • John Riley
                  ... OMG - go to the root page of that link: http://www.flashlab.com . I think it must be intended as ironic or something. It is like a showcase of everything
                  Message 8 of 23 , Jun 12, 2010
                    On Jun 12, 2010, at 7:56 AM, Bjørn K Nilssen wrote:

                    > Here's a link to an interesting comparison between the current state of html5 vs Flash.
                    > http://bit.ly/agrIBk
                    > Looks like it was a bit too early for Jobs to try to bury Flash?
                    >
                    > --
                    > Bjørn K Nilssen - http://bknilssen.no - panoramas and 3D



                    OMG - go to the root page of that link: http://www.flashlab.com . I think it must be intended as ironic or something. It is like a showcase of everything that is wrong and awful when done with Flash 8-( Entire page done in flash, no navigation to speak of, pointless, crappy animations, waving text or eyeballs following your cursor, annoying to the point that you have to just leave or slit your wrists. Speaking of going back in time! Remember when people did annoying, shitty things with flash (or blink tags, tickers, etc)? Welcome back.

                    John

                    John Riley
                    johnriley@...
                    (h)864-461-3504
                    (c)864-431-7075
                    (w)864-503-5775

                    [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                  • Bjørn K Nilssen
                    ... The point (and big difference) is that the floppy was dropped after it had been replaced by mature, new and better technologies, the CD/DVD-R and USB pens.
                    Message 9 of 23 , Jun 12, 2010
                      On 12 Jun 2010 at 15:53, Keith Martin wrote:

                      >
                      > More seriously, when Apple dropped the floppy
                      > drive it caused a big stink everywhere. But it
                      > wasn't all that long before the rest of the
                      > computing world followed suit. I'm not claiming
                      > this will happen with Flash, but it is worth
                      > noting that in passing.

                      The point (and big difference) is that the floppy was dropped after it had been replaced
                      by mature, new and better technologies, the CD/DVD-R and USB pens.
                      Flash was dropped by Jobs many years before there was a good alternative ready for
                      replacing it. That's a huge difference!
                      I can understand why ordinary Mac fanboys doesn't mind or care, but I find it very
                      strange that Mac/iPad fans on this list seems to have no objections at all to the fact
                      that a lot of your/our work will not be able to viewed on the iGadgets, just because Jobs
                      doesn't want Flash? And then I'm primarily talking about scripted VR tours with hotspots
                      and cross-linked panos. Apparently there are already some pretty good solutions for
                      making single panos viewable on iPads, but that is only one (small) part of this panorama
                      "business". How can this Jobs action be called anything else than going many years back
                      in time?

                      --
                      Bjørn K Nilssen - http://bknilssen.no - panoramas and 3D
                    • Keith Martin
                      ... Actually, no. The iMac was launched in the Spring of 1998, and the first commercial USB flash drives weren t launched until late 2000. Those models were a
                      Message 10 of 23 , Jun 12, 2010
                        >the floppy was dropped after it had been replaced by mature, new and
                        >better technologies, the CD/DVD-R and USB pens.

                        Actually, no. The iMac was launched in the Spring of 1998, and the
                        first commercial USB flash drives weren't launched until late 2000.
                        Those models were a few GB - much larger than floppies - but they
                        were seriously expensive by comparison.

                        CD-R is a write-once medium and CD-RW has always been a fudge, far
                        less useful than most people ever realise. No, what really did for
                        floppies was the Internet. Even with dialup, by that point email
                        attachments had become a common method of transfer for many.

                        k
                      • Bjørn K Nilssen
                        ... The point isn t what killed the floppy, but that it had been replaced by something new and better before it was killed. Unlike Flash on iGadgets, where
                        Message 11 of 23 , Jun 13, 2010
                          On 13 Jun 2010 at 1:06, Keith Martin wrote:

                          > >the floppy was dropped after it had been replaced by mature, new and
                          > >better technologies, the CD/DVD-R and USB pens.
                          >
                          > Actually, no. The iMac was launched in the Spring of 1998, and the
                          > first commercial USB flash drives weren't launched until late 2000.
                          > Those models were a few GB - much larger than floppies - but they
                          > were seriously expensive by comparison.
                          >
                          > CD-R is a write-once medium and CD-RW has always been a fudge, far
                          > less useful than most people ever realise. No, what really did for
                          > floppies was the Internet. Even with dialup, by that point email
                          > attachments had become a common method of transfer for many.

                          The point isn't what killed the floppy, but that it had been replaced by something new
                          and better before it was killed. Unlike Flash on iGadgets, where currently there is no
                          new and better alternative - only half-cooked solutions.

                          --
                          Bjørn K Nilssen - http://bknilssen.no - panoramas and 3D
                        • tom_a_sparks
                          ... that what I was hated about flash (navigation), no one really tried using SVG/Canvans/HTML5 before apples Idevices forced us to tom
                          Message 12 of 23 , Jun 13, 2010
                            --- In PanoToolsNG@yahoogroups.com, John Riley <johnriley@...> wrote:
                            >
                            > On Jun 12, 2010, at 7:56 AM, Bjørn K Nilssen wrote:
                            >
                            > > Here's a link to an interesting comparison between the current state of html5 vs Flash.
                            > > http://bit.ly/agrIBk
                            > > Looks like it was a bit too early for Jobs to try to bury Flash?
                            > >
                            > > --
                            > > Bjørn K Nilssen - http://bknilssen.no - panoramas and 3D
                            >
                            >
                            >
                            > OMG - go to the root page of that link: http://www.flashlab.com . I think it must be intended as ironic or something. It is like a showcase of everything that is wrong and awful when done with Flash 8-( Entire page done in flash, no navigation to speak of, pointless, crappy animations, waving text or eyeballs following your cursor, annoying to the point that you have to just leave or slit your wrists. Speaking of going back in time! Remember when people did annoying, shitty things with flash (or blink tags, tickers, etc)? Welcome back.
                            >
                            that what I was hated about flash (navigation),
                            no one really tried using SVG/Canvans/HTML5 before apples Idevices forced us to

                            tom
                          • Trausti Hraunfjord
                            Absolutely a valid opinion, and I completely agree that there are many horror sites made with flash. But look at it this way: If a person has 20.000 different
                            Message 13 of 23 , Jun 13, 2010
                              Absolutely a valid opinion, and I completely agree that there are many
                              horror sites made with flash.

                              But look at it this way: If a person has 20.000 different oil-based colours
                              and a few canvases, there is absolutely no guarantee that the person in
                              question can reproduce Mona Lisa or any other art.

                              It only means that Flash has a lot of tools available, but it's the users
                              who mess things up. HTML5 has no tools and no possibilities to be compared
                              with Flash, because there is a big generation gap between the technical
                              possibilities. Maybe in 10 years, HTML5 will get it's feet to where Flash
                              is now... and then Flash will still be years ahead of it.

                              HTML5 is not something that can or will make Flash obsolete. Nor will it
                              make Microsoft Office obsolete, just because people may be able to type a
                              letter in there and print it.

                              It is simply another basic tool that will make a change to the better in
                              many ways, but as a flash killer... nope.

                              Trausti

                              On Sat, Jun 12, 2010 at 4:23 PM, John Riley <johnriley@...> wrote:

                              >
                              > OMG - go to the root page of that link: http://www.flashlab.com . I think
                              > it must be intended as ironic or something. It is like a showcase of
                              > everything that is wrong and awful when done with Flash 8-( Entire page done
                              > in flash, no navigation to speak of, pointless, crappy animations, waving
                              > text or eyeballs following your cursor, annoying to the point that you have
                              > to just leave or slit your wrists. Speaking of going back in time! Remember
                              > when people did annoying, shitty things with flash (or blink tags, tickers,
                              > etc)? Welcome back.
                              >
                              > John
                              >
                              > John Riley
                              > johnriley@... <johnriley%40chesnet.net>
                              > (h)864-461-3504
                              > (c)864-431-7075
                              > (w)864-503-5775
                              >


                              [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                            • Bjørn K Nilssen
                              ... And why not? Maybe because Flash was doing what it was supposed to do just fine, and there was no need to reinvent any wheels? -- Bjørn K Nilssen -
                              Message 14 of 23 , Jun 13, 2010
                                On 13 Jun 2010 at 9:43, tom_a_sparks wrote:

                                > --- In PanoToolsNG@yahoogroups.com, John Riley <johnriley@...> wrote:
                                > >
                                > > On Jun 12, 2010, at 7:56 AM, Bjørn K Nilssen wrote:
                                > >
                                > > > Here's a link to an interesting comparison between the current state of html5 vs
                                > Flash.
                                > > > http://bit.ly/agrIBk
                                > > > Looks like it was a bit too early for Jobs to try to bury Flash?
                                > > >
                                > > > --
                                > > > Bjørn K Nilssen - http://bknilssen.no - panoramas and 3D
                                > >
                                > >
                                > >
                                > > OMG - go to the root page of that link: http://www.flashlab.com . I think it must be
                                > intended as ironic or something. It is like a showcase of everything that is wrong and
                                > awful when done with Flash 8-( Entire page done in flash, no navigation to speak of,
                                > pointless, crappy animations, waving text or eyeballs following your cursor, annoying to
                                > the point that you have to just leave or slit your wrists. Speaking of going back in
                                > time! Remember when people did annoying, shitty things with flash (or blink tags,
                                > tickers, etc)? Welcome back.
                                > >
                                > that what I was hated about flash (navigation),
                                > no one really tried using SVG/Canvans/HTML5 before apples Idevices forced us to

                                And why not? Maybe because Flash was doing what it was supposed to do just fine, and
                                there was no need to reinvent any wheels?

                                --
                                Bjørn K Nilssen - http://bknilssen.no - panoramas and 3D
                              • Bjørn K Nilssen
                                ... At least not in the foreseeable future, ie 5-10 years. -- Bjørn K Nilssen - http://bknilssen.no - panoramas and 3D
                                Message 15 of 23 , Jun 13, 2010
                                  On 13 Jun 2010 at 5:02, Trausti Hraunfjord wrote:

                                  > Absolutely a valid opinion, and I completely agree that there are many
                                  > horror sites made with flash.
                                  >
                                  > But look at it this way: If a person has 20.000 different oil-based colours
                                  > and a few canvases, there is absolutely no guarantee that the person in
                                  > question can reproduce Mona Lisa or any other art.
                                  >
                                  > It only means that Flash has a lot of tools available, but it's the users
                                  > who mess things up. HTML5 has no tools and no possibilities to be compared
                                  > with Flash, because there is a big generation gap between the technical
                                  > possibilities. Maybe in 10 years, HTML5 will get it's feet to where Flash
                                  > is now... and then Flash will still be years ahead of it.
                                  >
                                  > HTML5 is not something that can or will make Flash obsolete. Nor will it
                                  > make Microsoft Office obsolete, just because people may be able to type a
                                  > letter in there and print it.
                                  >
                                  > It is simply another basic tool that will make a change to the better in
                                  > many ways, but as a flash killer... nope.

                                  At least not in the foreseeable future, ie 5-10 years.

                                  --
                                  Bjørn K Nilssen - http://bknilssen.no - panoramas and 3D
                                • mrjimbo
                                  Ya know, Jobs did what he did. Was he right? ..Time will tell. Is he infallible ...jeeze no.. Apple has made a ton of mistakes.. Their world has become more
                                  Message 16 of 23 , Jun 13, 2010
                                    Ya know,
                                    Jobs did what he did. Was he right? ..Time will tell. Is he infallible ...jeeze no.. Apple has made a ton of mistakes.. Their world has become more gadget oriented so even as smart as they seem to be in this arena they will have to be very creative to stay on top. Their switch to Intel processors, out of necessity, long term hurt them.. As the defining line between Macs and PC's started getting harder to see. The only way a company can truly survive is to grow. So that is simply what their up to.. they have no choice.. As far as Flash goes...It's incredible and does a great job.. Actually it capabilities are far greater then those typically needed for panographers I think.. It is also used inside of other software's such as Director.. So unless a replacement is made it's not going any where.
                                    So Jobs either knows something or has made a very poor decision... I'm really not a fan of his but I do not believe he is stupid...ruthless yes , stupid no.. If his path is one that he cannot offer a feature rich environment like Flash does he will fail.. Consumers will see to that and it won't take that long.. He is a bit of an arrogant man so if he has something in his closet his timing for bringing it out will be critical or he will fail. One thing for sure we have a new "need" to solve an apparent problem.. Either he steps up to the plate and delivers it or someone else will.. If a new tool shows up that is able to equal flash we all know we will use it if needed.. Apple has taken a posture moving into the future with Adobe that both companies will have to chew.. Now lets just see how they do it. We must not forget that Apple is a bit of a grandstander from a marketing perspective..All this hype simply draws more attention to them.. They feed off that and need it.

                                    jimbo


                                    ----- Original Message -----
                                    From: tom_a_sparks
                                    To: PanoToolsNG@yahoogroups.com
                                    Sent: Sunday, June 13, 2010 3:43 AM
                                    Subject: [PanoToolsNG] Re: Comparing current html5 vs current Flash



                                    --- In PanoToolsNG@yahoogroups.com, John Riley <johnriley@...> wrote:
                                    >
                                    > On Jun 12, 2010, at 7:56 AM, Bjørn K Nilssen wrote:
                                    >
                                    > > Here's a link to an interesting comparison between the current state of html5 vs Flash.
                                    > > http://bit.ly/agrIBk
                                    > > Looks like it was a bit too early for Jobs to try to bury Flash?
                                    > >
                                    > > --
                                    > > Bjørn K Nilssen - http://bknilssen.no - panoramas and 3D
                                    >
                                    >
                                    >
                                    > OMG - go to the root page of that link: http://www.flashlab.com . I think it must be intended as ironic or something. It is like a showcase of everything that is wrong and awful when done with Flash 8-( Entire page done in flash, no navigation to speak of, pointless, crappy animations, waving text or eyeballs following your cursor, annoying to the point that you have to just leave or slit your wrists. Speaking of going back in time! Remember when people did annoying, shitty things with flash (or blink tags, tickers, etc)? Welcome back.
                                    >
                                    that what I was hated about flash (navigation),
                                    no one really tried using SVG/Canvans/HTML5 before apples Idevices forced us to

                                    tom





                                    [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                  • Keith Martin
                                    ... But in that case the floppy *wasn t* replaced by something new and better before Apple launched the floppy-free iMac. USB memory sticks didn t arrive until
                                    Message 17 of 23 , Jun 13, 2010
                                      >The point isn't what killed the floppy, but that it had been
                                      >replaced by something new and better before it was killed.

                                      But in that case the floppy *wasn't* replaced by something new and
                                      better before Apple launched the floppy-free iMac. USB memory sticks
                                      didn't arrive until over two years *after* that point.

                                      k
                                    • Keith Martin
                                      ... I don t think anyone can make a meaningful assessment of where we ll be, technology-wise, in ten years time. It ll be an exciting ride getting there, but
                                      Message 18 of 23 , Jun 13, 2010
                                        >At least not in the foreseeable future, ie 5-10 years.

                                        I don't think anyone can make a meaningful assessment of where we'll
                                        be, technology-wise, in ten years' time. It'll be an exciting ride
                                        getting there, but I regard any decade-ahead confidence in all but
                                        the most fundamental technologies (TCP/IP, some flavour of HTML, that
                                        sort of thing) as hubris. Ten years ago Microsoft launched Windows
                                        2000 and Windows Me. Long time, eh?

                                        k
                                      • Trausti Hraunfjord
                                        Well, no matter the technological reasoning... the Apple people were still traumatized after the years of floppy feeding frenzy, where thousands of people
                                        Message 19 of 23 , Jun 13, 2010
                                          Well, no matter the technological reasoning... the Apple people were still
                                          traumatized after the years of floppy feeding frenzy, where thousands of
                                          people working with early models of Apple around the world, were getting
                                          "tennis elbows"... and incapacitated weeks at the time. :)

                                          That was a serious joke, based on reality ...:)

                                          Trausti



                                          On Sun, Jun 13, 2010 at 11:47 AM, Keith Martin <keith@...> wrote:

                                          >
                                          >
                                          > >The point isn't what killed the floppy, but that it had been
                                          > >replaced by something new and better before it was killed.
                                          >
                                          > But in that case the floppy *wasn't* replaced by something new and
                                          > better before Apple launched the floppy-free iMac. USB memory sticks
                                          > didn't arrive until over two years *after* that point.
                                          >
                                          > k
                                          >
                                          >


                                          [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                        • Keith Martin
                                          ... *Everyone* had to do the floppy shuffle back then. It was the office dance craze of the decade. :-) k
                                          Message 20 of 23 , Jun 13, 2010
                                            >[...] floppy feeding frenzy [...]

                                            *Everyone* had to do the floppy shuffle back then. It was the office
                                            dance craze of the decade. :-)

                                            k
                                          • Bjørn K Nilssen
                                            ... Nobody knows, but according to the editor of the HTML5 spec, Ian Hickson, he expects it to be finished in 2022!
                                            Message 21 of 23 , Jun 13, 2010
                                              On 13 Jun 2010 at 17:56, Keith Martin wrote:

                                              > >At least not in the foreseeable future, ie 5-10 years.
                                              >
                                              > I don't think anyone can make a meaningful assessment of where we'll
                                              > be, technology-wise, in ten years' time. It'll be an exciting ride
                                              > getting there, but I regard any decade-ahead confidence in all but
                                              > the most fundamental technologies (TCP/IP, some flavour of HTML, that
                                              > sort of thing) as hubris. Ten years ago Microsoft launched Windows
                                              > 2000 and Windows Me. Long time, eh?

                                              Nobody knows, but according to the editor of the HTML5 spec, Ian Hickson, he expects it
                                              to be finished in 2022!
                                              http://www.webmonkey.com/2008/09/html_5_won_t_be_ready_until_2022dot_yes__2022dot/
                                              It takes a long time before new standards are adopted everywhere. PNG format development
                                              was started in the mid 90s as a replacement for GIF, which suddenly Unisys started to
                                              charge licenses for. PNG was released in 96, but it took many years after that before it
                                              could be used/viewed in all browsers. 2022 is IMHO quite optimistic for HTML5. Some
                                              people are still running IE6 today, 9 years after it was released.
                                              Nobody knows when (if ever) HTML5 will be available on 98% of all PCs, like Flash is now.
                                              But we all know that iGadget users will have to live with Flash surrogates (and blue
                                              Legos, if they are allowed again) for many years, unless Jobs is kicked out again from
                                              Apple, and replaced by someone less dictatorical and arrogant (not very likely).
                                              Not everyone will be willing to write special pages/versions for iGadgets, and not
                                              everyone will write special apps for them (I certainly won't anyway).
                                              Whatever happens in the years to come those iGadget users will not have access to all
                                              content on the Internet/web. That's a fact.

                                              And this has nothing to do with whatever replaced the floppies, or if Apple has made the
                                              same mistake before. If you think that it was Apples decision to drop floppies that
                                              caused CD-R/DVD-R and USBmemory to be developed at express speed I think you have to
                                              think again...
                                              And BTW, XP was released in 2001, and it still works great, and I can still run all old
                                              and new software on it without any problems, including old DOS programs :)
                                              And Flash was introduced in 96, so it has taken 14 years to reach its current fairly
                                              mature state.
                                              Why don't Jobs just drop JPG support? It's very old (almost 20 years), and the quality
                                              can be terrible. Why not just stop supporting it while we're waiting for a new and better
                                              format to be developed?
                                              My first web experience was with the Lynx web browser (-93) on Unix, which was text-only.
                                              That could have saved a lot of battery power on the iPads ;)
                                              It's even available for Mac as MacLynx : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynx_(web_browser)

                                              --
                                              Bjørn K Nilssen - http://bknilssen.no - panoramas and 3D
                                            • Keith Martin
                                              ... Oh, not at all! :-) I just wanted to note that those things were NOT connected as seemed to be suggested, and in fact USB memory sticks didn t appear at
                                              Message 22 of 23 , Jun 13, 2010
                                                >If you think that it was Apples decision to drop floppies that
                                                >caused CD-R/DVD-R and USBmemory to be developed at express speed I
                                                >think you have to think again...

                                                Oh, not at all! :-)
                                                I just wanted to note that those things were NOT connected as seemed
                                                to be suggested, and in fact USB memory sticks didn't appear at all
                                                for over two years after the floppy was rejected by Apple.


                                                >Flash was introduced in 96

                                                Yep, I remember it well. I did some freelance work for Disney's early
                                                online efforts while it was FutureSplash Animator in 1995, and thanks
                                                to a happy accident of timing I wrote the world's first Macromedia
                                                Flash review. (I took the printed article to the press launch too - a
                                                good moment. :-)

                                                I knew it well, back then, but I wish the UI had been developed more
                                                in the years since. Flash can be used for amazing things. It also has
                                                some flaws, with stability and security being things that Adobe has
                                                been trying to nail ever since it was acquired. But that's something
                                                that's been discussed ad nauseam all over the Internet.

                                                Personally, I think a timeline-based UI is not ideal for full
                                                app-like development. That's all.


                                                >It's even available for Mac as MacLynx :
                                                >http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynx_(web_browser)

                                                Heh. I preferred MacWeb. :-)

                                                k
                                              • Keith Martin
                                                ... Interesting article with a decent amount of consideration given to possibilities. I see it was written in September 2008. I wonder if he d give exactly the
                                                Message 23 of 23 , Jun 13, 2010
                                                  >according to the editor of the HTML5 spec, Ian Hickson, he expects it
                                                  >to be finished in 2022!
                                                  >http://www.webmonkey.com/2008/09/html_5_won_t_be_ready_until_2022dot_yes__2022dot/

                                                  Interesting article with a decent amount of consideration given to
                                                  possibilities. I see it was written in September 2008. I wonder if
                                                  he'd give exactly the same answer if asked now?

                                                  k
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