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SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%), GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4), IDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 31 Oct 2004 until 02 Nov 2004) http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3

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  • sonya koch
    SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 31 Oct 2004 until 02 Nov 2004) http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3 ... SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 31, 2004
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      SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 31 Oct 2004 until 02 Nov 2004)
      http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3
      ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      ----

      SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
      GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
      SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
      PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 134 / AP: 013
      PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 008
      PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 032

      COMMENT: After the X1.2 flare of Oct. 30, active region 52 (NOAA691)
      produced
      another 3 M flares, as well as a semi-halo CME detected by CACTus in LASCO
      C2
      images at 16:54UT and associated with the M5.9 flare of 16:18UT. More M
      flares,
      and maybe an isolated X flare are still possible in that region, although
      its
      activity level is expected to decay slightly. As new magnetic flux elements
      have
      emerged between the two main spots of active region #57 (NOAA693), enhanced
      activity,with a possible M flare, can also be expected from that region,
      which
      was relatively quiet until now.

      The geomagnetic field is expected to remain unsettled today, with temporary
      active periods, but the coronal hole influence is expected to decay at the
      end
      of the UT day and tomorrow, Nov. 1. Then, the arrival of a glancing CME
      from the
      M5 flare of Oct.30 may produce active conditions or a minor storm on Nov.
      2. A
      new trans-equatorial coronal hole, now located near the solar central
      meridian,
      is then expected to create unsettled geomagnetic conditions, starting on
      Nov.3.

      SOLAR INDICES FOR 30 Oct 2004
      SUNSPOT INDEX : 155
      10CM SOLAR FLUX : 136
      AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 031
      AK WINGST : ///
      ESTIMATED AP : 021

      NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
      DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA
      NOTE
      30 1618 1633 1637 N15W20 M5.9 SN 300 V/2,II/1 52 0691
      semi-halo CME
      31 0513 0532 0542 N12W34 M2.4 52 0691

      31 0205 0226 0240 N12W33 M1.2 52 0691

      END
      -------------------------------------------------------
      Space Weather Message Code: ALTPC0Serial Number: 12Issue Time: 2004 Nov 01
      0641 UTCALERT: Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfuBegin Time:
      2004 Nov 01 0641 UTC

      Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX1
      Serial Number: 238
      Issue Time: 2004 Nov 01 0706 UTC

      ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
      Begin Time: 2004 Nov 01 0703 UTC
      NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor


      NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found
      atwww.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales For more information on this Warning
      or Alert call the Space WeatherOffice at (303) 497 3171 (24 Hours) or email
      RWC.Boulder@...


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